Key Takeaways:
Trump told EU officials he is prepared to impose new tariffs on China and India, but only in coordination with European nations.
Measures under discussion also include sanctions on Russia’s shadow fleet, banks, and oil majors.
The proposal comes after Moscow escalated attacks in Ukraine and missed Trump’s deadline for peace talks.
Tariffs as Leverage
President Donald Trump signaled a willingness to levy sweeping tariffs on China and India to force Russian President Vladimir Putin into negotiations over Ukraine. According to people familiar with the talks, Trump told EU leaders in Washington the US would mirror European tariffs if member states agreed.
The approach highlights a challenge: several EU nations, notably Hungary, have previously blocked stricter sanctions on Russia’s energy sector. Any EU measures would require unanimity.
Trump has already doubled tariffs on Indian goods to 50% in response to New Delhi’s continued purchases of Russian crude. He later softened his tone, saying the US and India were negotiating to resolve trade disputes and that he looked forward to talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Broader Measures Under Consideration
Alongside tariff discussions, officials floated additional sanctions targeting:
Russia’s “shadow fleet” of oil tankers used to circumvent restrictions,
its financial sector,
and its major oil companies.
Ukraine’s Prime Minister Yuliya Svyrydenko joined the discussions, urging allies to hit Russian oil majors, refineries, and traders directly. The EU is already drafting its 19th sanctions package.
Balancing China Policy
Trump’s proposal also contrasts with his recent softer stance toward Beijing. He extended a pause on higher tariffs into November, part of an effort to stabilize relations and secure a potential summit with President Xi Jinping.
Any renewed tariff escalation risks retaliation, particularly in rare earth exports critical to US industries. It could also jeopardize the prospect of a Trump-Xi meeting, tentatively eyed for next month at a South Korea summit.
Geopolitical Backdrop
Russia has intensified its air campaign in Ukraine, with a strike on Tuesday killing more than two dozen civilians.
Despite self-imposed deadlines, Trump has so far refrained from direct punitive measures on Moscow.
EU and US officials are exploring ways to close loopholes in existing sanctions as Russia leans on China and India to sustain its economy.
Bottom Line
Trump’s tariff threat marks a new front in efforts to tighten pressure on Moscow. But its success hinges on EU unity and careful management of trade ties with China and India. A misstep risks escalating trade tensions while complicating fragile diplomatic efforts on Ukraine.
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