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Chinese stocks rallied Friday as investors anticipated stronger growth stimulus measures ahead of a key policy meeting, offsetting broader regional caution before the release of critical U.S. jobs data. Key Market Moves: China's CSI 300 Index : Gained up to 1.8% as traders bet on fresh economic support from the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index : Jumped 1.6%. Regional Trends : While Chinese stocks provided a bright spot, indices in Japan, South Korea, and Australia posted declines. The broader Asian equities gauge rose 0.1%. Global Highlights: U.S. Market Influence : Wall Street's S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both saw their first declines in five sessions, down 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively. U.S. Job Market : Jobless claims rose to a one-month high, with November payroll growth estimated at 220,000, a rebound from disruptions in October. Other Regional Developments: South Korea : The won recovered from earlier declines after assurances from ...

Global fund managers have shifted their focus from India to China , spurred by China's recent stimulus package aimed at reviving its economy, according to a survey by BofA Securities . Following China's central bank's aggressive monetary support measures in September and its pledge to increase debt, growth expectations for China have surged. This policy shift has attracted global investors, resulting in a significant increase in China allocations at the expense of Indian equities . The survey revealed that participants believe this round of policy adjustments in China signals a real change, prompting them to refocus on the Chinese market after seeking opportunities elsewhere. The shift has had a noticeable impact on Indian markets , with foreign investors pulling out nearly US$8 billion from Indian equities in October, marking the largest outflow since March 2020. This exodus has contributed to a 5% decline in India's Nifty 50 index from its record high in late ...

Chinese stocks fluctuated on Wednesday, reflecting rising disappointment over the slow pace of stimulus measures . The CSI 300 Index fell 0.3% , briefly dipping as much as 1.3% , bringing total declines from its October 8 high to over 10% , signaling a potential technical correction . The market has experienced significant volatility since late September, when a series of stimulus measures from the People’s Bank of China initially boosted investor optimism. However, the lack of detailed follow-through on fiscal spending has led to growing skepticism about the government’s commitment to reviving the slowing economy . While the CSI 300 soared more than 30% over three weeks in mid-September, the rally has lost momentum, and investors remain divided on whether the market has peaked or if there is still room for further gains. The next crucial moment for the market will be on Thursday, when China’s housing minister, Ni Hong , is expected to provide more details on measures to support th...

China's record-breaking aluminum production is expected to continue for the remainder of the year, with national output projected to rise by 3% in the fourth quarter, reaching 11 million tons , according to Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) . This growth is supported by a surge in hydropower generation , ensuring that key production regions, such as Yunnan , will avoid the power shortages that have led to production cuts in recent years. In August , China's aluminum smelters produced a record 3.69 million tons , and while September may show a slight dip, production is expected to rebound to 3.72 million tons in December , SMM reported. Despite a slowing economy , demand for aluminum has remained strong due to the metal’s increased usage in clean energy applications such as electric vehicles (EVs) and solar power systems . Aluminum production is highly energy-intensive , but hydropower , particularly in Yunnan, has seen a 22% increase in output in the first eight months of 2024, ...

China’s 5% growth target for 2024 is under intense scrutiny, with sluggish consumer spending , an uncertain export outlook , and a shaky property market casting doubt over its feasibility. In late September, Beijing introduced a series of stimulus measures , leading to a historic stock rally. However, investor disappointment soon followed as the support measures were seen as insufficient, prompting further government promises of aid for the property sector and hints at increased government borrowing . The Economic Downturn Before these latest efforts, many global banks were already skeptical that China could meet its growth goal. Deflationary pressures were rising, with new-home prices hitting their lowest levels since 2014, and consumer confidence slumped to a multi-year low. Analysts questioned the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy, while China's export growth reached its highest value in two years but was met with global resistance due to cheap Chinese goods . Late...

Goldman Sachs Group Inc has upgraded its economic growth forecasts for China in both 2024 and 2025 following Beijing’s recent announcement of stimulus measures aimed at boosting growth, including plans for greater public spending. The bank now expects China’s gross domestic product (GDP) to expand 4.9% in 2024 , up from its previous estimate of 4.7%. The forecast for 2025 has also been raised to 4.7% from 4.3% , according to a report released on Sunday. Goldman economists, including Hui Shan , noted that the latest round of stimulus reflects a clear shift in Beijing’s policy focus toward economic management, with increased efforts to counter weak sentiment and deflationary pressures . The upgrade follows the Finance Ministry's pledge to provide greater fiscal support during a highly anticipated briefing on Saturday. However, the measures fell short of direct steps to stimulate consumption, which some analysts believe are essential to combat deflation. Key fiscal measures includ...

Chinese stocks extended gains after a volatile start to the week, buoyed by the government's promises of fiscal support. The CSI 300 Index rose by as much as 2.4% , reversing early losses after capping its worst week since late July on Friday. A Bloomberg Intelligence gauge of Chinese developers also surged by over 3% , reflecting cautious optimism among traders. Despite the absence of a specific fiscal stimulus figure, Finance Minister Lan Fo'an hinted at new steps to bolster the struggling property sector, alongside suggestions of increased government borrowing. This has raised expectations for more revved-up fiscal spending , which analysts see as critical for sustaining the stock market rally sparked by the central bank’s stimulus measures in late September. Economists at HSBC, including Jing Liu, noted that while no large stimulus number was provided, the press conference still came as an "upside surprise," reinforcing expectations that the policy shift will...

  Shares of Guotai Junan Securities Co and Haitong Securities Co surged after the announcement of their merger terms , which will create a state-backed brokerage with US$226 billion (RM969.99 billion) in assets. This new entity is set to compete with Wall Street firms expanding in China. On Thursday, shares of both companies surged more than 100% in Hong Kong and by the 10% daily limit in Shanghai, as they caught up with the broader rally in Chinese and Hong Kong stocks driven by China’s recent stimulus measures . The deal, which was suspended on Sept 6, involves a share swap , where Guotai Junan will issue shares to Haitong’s holders at a 0.62 to 1 ratio , offering a 32% premium in Hong Kong. Guotai Junan also plans to raise 10 billion yuan from its controlling shareholder to support the merger. The combined entity will have 1.6 trillion yuan in assets, surpassing Citic Securities Co as the largest brokerage in China, with operations spanning Hong Kong, Singapore, New Y...

  Goldman Sachs upgraded its outlook for Chinese stocks to overweight , predicting that shares could rise another 15%-20% if Beijing follows through on its stimulus measures , according to a note from strategists, including Tim Moe, dated Oct. 5. The investment bank joins HSBC Holdings Plc and BlackRock Inc. in turning more bullish on China's equities. Despite the recent rally, valuations remain below historical averages , and with earnings expected to improve and global investors under-positioned , Goldman sees further upside potential. The CSI 300 Index has already climbed 27% from its September lows , and analysts will be closely watching to see if this momentum continues when onshore markets reopen on Tuesday after the holiday. Goldman raised its targets for the MSCI China Index and CSI 300 Index to 84 and 4,600 respectively, projecting a total return of 15%-18% . However, they warned of potential risks, such as weaker-than-expected stimulus , profit-taking , and geo...

   Despite a 30% surge in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index since late September, global fund managers like Invesco Ltd., JPMorgan Asset Management , and Nomura Holdings Inc. remain cautious about the sustainability of the rally. The rebound, driven by Beijing’s stimulus measures including interest rate cuts and liquidity support, has reinvigorated investor confidence. However, concerns over overvalued stocks and the need for more concrete economic recovery actions persist. Invesco's Raymond Ma warns that some stocks are now overvalued , and their fundamentals may not justify their high prices. Similarly, JPMorgan Asset Management is wary, calling for additional policy measures to further boost confidence and economic activity, especially as global uncertainties—like the upcoming US elections —loom. While Nomura warns of a potential stock market "boom to bust" scenario , with risks reminiscent of the 2015 crash , HSBC Global Private Banking remains neutral, e...

Chinese tech stocks have surged over the past few weeks following the announcement of a stimulus spree by the Chinese government, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising more than 45% in less than four weeks . Notably, this rally appears to be fueled by fresh buying rather than short covering , according to S3 Partners and JPMorgan Chase & Co. . Major companies such as Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. , JD.com Inc. , and Baidu Inc. have seen their American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) rally, but short positions on these stocks have remained stable . Short interest for these companies has hovered around 2% to 3% of available shares , according to Ihor Dusaniwsky , managing director of predictive analytics at S3. This lack of aggressive short covering indicates that bearish bets have not been significantly closed despite the strong rally. Fund managers, such as Han Piow Liew from Maitri Asset Management , noted that the magnitude of the recent bounce usually forces shorts to cover their...

In a significant push to stimulate the struggling property sector , three of China's largest cities have relaxed homebuying restrictions following the central government's latest efforts. Guangzhou became the first tier-1 city to completely remove homebuyer eligibility checks and limits on the number of properties owned, according to a statement issued late Sunday. Meanwhile, Shanghai and Shenzhen announced that more people would be eligible to purchase homes in suburban areas and allowed existing homeowners to buy additional properties. In a move to further boost demand, Shanghai and Shenzhen also lowered minimum downpayment requirements, with first-home buyers needing just 15% and second-home buyers 20% . These changes come as part of China's largest stimulus package to date, aimed at revitalizing the beleaguered property market . The package includes cutting borrowing costs on up to US$5.3 trillion in mortgages and reducing down-payment requirements for second-hom...

Asian markets mostly held their ground on Monday, supported by China's latest stimulus measures , but Japan's Nikkei took a sharp dive , driven by concerns that the country’s new prime minister might favor normalizing interest rates . The Nikkei fell 4.0% , as investors were uncertain about Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s stance on the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) monetary policy , despite his weekend comments suggesting that monetary policy "must remain accommodative" due to the current state of the economy. The uncertainty led to a brief recovery in the yen, with the dollar bouncing 0.5% to ¥142.85 after falling from ¥146.49 on Friday. Meanwhile, China's central bank announced plans to lower mortgage rates on existing home loans by 50 basis points on average by the end of October. This comes as part of Beijing's largest stimulus package since the pandemic, aimed at tackling deflation risks and reviving the economy. Christian Keller, head of economic research a...

China has ramped up stimulus efforts to prevent its economy from slipping into a deflationary spiral , with measures including interest rate cuts, eased home-buying rules, and cash handouts. The People’s Bank of China slashed rates on one-year loans and the government rolled out subsidies to support jobless graduates. These moves are aimed at reviving growth in the world's second-largest economy, but analysts warn this might only be a temporary fix. Globally, here's a roundup of key economic trends and developments: Asia China : Despite the stimulus, China is expected to miss its 2024 growth target as the property slump continues to weigh heavily on economic momentum. The People's Bank of China cut its medium-term lending rate to 2% , marking the largest reduction on record. India : Gold imports surged ahead of the festive season, boosted by tax cuts, signaling strong demand in the world’s second-largest gold consumer. US US Core Inflation : The Federal Reserve's ...

European stocks, after hitting record highs in 2024, face a challenging road ahead as fund managers from Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, and Northern Trust warn of rising risks from a weak economic outlook, uncertain corporate earnings, and the looming US presidential election . BlackRock’s Helen Jewell cautioned that the fragile market could remain volatile, particularly with uncertainty surrounding the US election and a shaky macroeconomic backdrop in Europe, where the eurozone’s private sector has been shrinking and Germany faces a potential contraction. Adding to the uncertainty is the upcoming third-quarter earnings season in mid-October. With consumer demand weakening , early signs suggest that earnings for some major companies, including Novo Nordisk and H&M , may disappoint. Expectations for full-year earnings have already dropped 2.8% since January, and some analysts believe further downgrades are likely. The US election adds another layer of risk, particularly if Donal...

Oil prices continued their three-day slide on Friday, with Brent crude dropping by 0.28% to US$71.40 per barrel and WTI falling 0.21% to US$67.53 . Both benchmarks are set for weekly losses, with Brent crude expected to shed 4% and WTI 6% . The decline in prices is driven by expectations of increased output from Libya and the Opec+ group, which have overshadowed China’s fresh stimulus efforts. China’s central bank recently lowered interest rates and injected liquidity into the banking system to boost economic growth, sparking optimism across other asset classes, but oil markets remain fixated on supply concerns. Libya's recent agreement to resolve a dispute that had sharply reduced its oil production is expected to restore 500,000 barrels per day to the market. Additionally, Opec+ , which is currently cutting oil output by 5.86 million bpd , plans to reverse 180,000 bpd of those cuts in December. Despite the stimulus from China , the world’s top oil importer, anal...

Recent US interest rate cuts and China’s economic stimulus are expected to boost private equity (PE) activity in Asia by lowering funding costs and improving market sentiment, industry insiders said. These developments could make it easier for private equity firms to exit their investments, a process that has been challenging due to volatile market conditions. The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in more than four years, with more reductions expected, easing financing constraints for leveraged buyouts . At the same time, China's broader-than-expected monetary stimulus and property market support measures aim to revive confidence in the country’s economy, with further fiscal measures anticipated. "With the Fed entering a rate-cut cycle , we expect financing conditions to improve, driving a recovery in exit activity and asset valuations," said Janice Leow , head of EQT Private Capital Southeast Asia . She noted that this would help narrow the ...

Global stocks hovered near record highs on Friday, bolstered by China's stimulus measures and the yen's sharp rise after Shigeru Ishiba emerged as Japan’s next prime minister. The STOXX 600 index in Europe gained 0.2%, with major indices like Germany's DAX , France's CAC 40 , and Britain's FTSE 100 rising between 0.1% and 0.4%. The yen appreciated by 1.4% to ¥142.78 per dollar, reversing earlier losses as Ishiba, seen as supportive of the Bank of Japan’s policy normalization , won the ruling party's leadership race. The dollar dropped 1.2% against the yen to ¥143.03. Ishiba’s win was perceived as a relief for the BOJ , which has recently shifted away from negative rates. Analysts believe that Ishiba's fiscal policies could support regional economic growth , and upcoming inflation results and Fed actions will be crucial in guiding BOJ's next move. China Stimulus Drives Market Optimism China’s blue-chip stocks surged 4.5% , while Hong Kong's...

  Asian equities are expected to rise on Thursday, buoyed by a weaker yen and stimulus measures from Beijing , providing support for the region’s two largest stock markets. Equity futures in Japan , Hong Kong , and Australia all advanced, indicating a positive outlook for Asian markets after a brief pause in the rally earlier this week. The Hong Kong futures gains come despite a dip in a benchmark of US-listed Chinese companies, suggesting some fatigue in the stimulus-driven rally that has boosted Chinese equities this week. Asian stocks had been trading near their highest levels since early 2022, following a four-session rally. In the US , equity futures edged higher in early Asian trading, with Micron Technology Inc surging over 10% after delivering a strong revenue forecast post-market. Meanwhile, Treasury yields advanced, supporting the dollar , which climbed 0.7%. The yen held steady after a 1% drop against the dollar in the previous session. Investors in the US are w...