Key Takeaways
ECB Vice President Guindos: All options remain on the table for interest rates.
Inflation steady at 2%, third straight month on target.
Mixed voices within ECB: Some warn against cuts, others say further easing can’t be ruled out.
Markets calm: No bond stress, sovereign spreads not a concern.
The European Central Bank (ECB) stands ready to adjust its policy stance if conditions shift, even though current interest rates are seen as appropriate, according to Vice President Luis de Guindos.
“We all agree that we must keep all options open,” Guindos said in an interview with Die Welt. “If the situation changes, we will adjust our stance accordingly.”
Inflation and Economic Backdrop
Eurozone inflation eased to 2% in August, matching the ECB’s target for a third month, down from an earlier estimate of 2.1%.
Wage pressures that previously fueled price growth are moderating, with negotiated pay gains expected to stay below 2% into 2026.
The ECB projects a temporary undershoot in inflation next year, but medium-term expectations remain aligned with its mandate.
Policy Debate Inside the ECB
President Christine Lagarde reiterated last week that the outlook is “on target.”
Isabel Schnabel urged stability in borrowing costs.
Joachim Nagel (Bundesbank) cautioned against premature cuts, warning they could jeopardize price stability.
Francois Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France) countered that further reductions can’t be ruled out.
Market Conditions
Guindos stressed that financial markets remain calm, with no signs of liquidity stress or disorderly sovereign bond spreads. He dismissed talk of activating the ECB’s crisis bond-buying tool, noting “there are no signs of concern at the moment.”
Outlook: With inflation on target and growth proving resilient despite geopolitical headwinds, economists broadly expect the ECB to hold rates steady for the foreseeable future, while keeping the door open to shifts if conditions change.
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