Key Takeaway: Apple’s stock has surged 12% in the past month, hitting its highest level since December 2024, as strong iPhone 17 demand sparks optimism. Analysts remain split, with some cheering China-led growth while others warn of product mix risks.
Apple Inc. (AAPL) is riding a wave of optimism thanks to the launch of the iPhone 17, with shares jumping 4.3% on Monday to close at their 2025 peak of US$256.64. The stock has rebounded sharply from a rough first half — when it slumped nearly 30% amid tariff worries and AI concerns — and is now one of the best performers in the Nasdaq Composite.
Early signs suggest demand for the iPhone 17 is running ahead of supply. Bank of America’s Wamsi Mohan noted that ship dates are more extended than last year’s iPhone 16, particularly in China, where orders are boosted by a 15% government subsidy and regulatory delays for the new iPhone Air.
China’s reception is critical. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives called the market a “linchpin” for Apple’s upgrade cycle and predicts a turnaround after years of negative growth. He raised his price target to US$310 (from US$270), implying 22% upside from current levels — the highest forecast among analysts tracked by FactSet.
Beyond hardware, Apple’s services business also stands to benefit. A recent antitrust ruling allows Apple to maintain its lucrative revenue-sharing deal with Alphabet’s Google, reinforcing the long-term value of an expanding iPhone user base.
Still, concerns remain over product mix. Jefferies analyst Edison Lee flagged that while the iPhone 17 base model is seeing the strongest demand, the slimmer iPhone Air shows shorter ship times, possibly signaling weaker interest. If demand for the Air and Pro models lags, Apple’s margins could come under pressure.
Mohan countered that shorter ship dates don’t necessarily equal weak demand, as Apple may have stocked more inventory for its new form factor. Ultimately, investors will be watching sales data in the coming quarters to see if initial excitement translates into sustainable growth.
Bottom Line: Apple’s iPhone 17 launch has reignited momentum, pushing the stock to new highs in 2025. With China demand strong and services growth intact, the rally could extend — but risks tied to product mix and competition may keep investors cautious.
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