MONEY MASTER

Euro  is on track for its  worst quarterly performance since 2024 , as rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions expose Europe’s  structural vulnerability to energy imports . Currency Weakness Accelerates on Oil Shock The euro has declined: ~2% this quarter ~2.5% in March , the steepest monthly drop since July It now trades near  US$1.15 , reversing sharply from levels above  US$1.20 earlier this year . Analysts warn the currency could weaken further toward  US$1.13  in the near term. Energy Dependence Weighs on Europe The selloff reflects Europe’s heavy reliance on imported energy: Oil prices have surged  above US$115 per barrel The  Strait of Hormuz disruption  is tightening supply Unlike the US, which benefits as a  net energy producer , Europe faces: Higher inflation Weaker economic growth Policy Outlook Turns Hawkish — But Growth Risks Persist Markets are now pricing: Three interest rate hikes in 2026 A sharp reversal from ex...

The long-standing relationship between Big Tech and the broader market has  broken down — and that may signal a new opportunity for investors . Correlation Breakdown Signals Market Shift For the first time in years, the  Magnificent Seven and the equal-weight S&P 500 have decoupled , with correlation turning  negative since late February . This shift suggests: Big Tech is no longer moving in sync with the broader market Market leadership could rotate back to tech stocks Historically, such divergence has preceded  strong outperformance from Big Tech .  Big Tech Lagged — But Now Looks Attractive Before the recent shift, Big Tech had underperformed: Magnificent Seven index fell  7.3% (Oct–Feb) Equal-weight S&P 500 rose  8.9% This was driven by concerns over: Heavy AI spending (capex concerns) Slowing momentum in key names like  Nvidia However, the pullback has reset valuations: Valuation dropped to  <25x earnings , below long-term ave...

European  equities  are  on  track  for  a  second  straight  weekly  decline ,  as  the  Iran  war  pushes  oil  above  US$100  and  revives  concerns  over  inflation,  growth  and  financial  stability. Stoxx 600  Falls  as  Oil  Surges The  Stoxx Europe 600   dropped 0.8%  in  early  London  trading,  extending  March  losses. With  oil  trading  above  US$100  per  barrel,  investors  are  reassessing  the  risks  of: Higher  inflation Slower  economic  growth Prolonged  geopolitical  instability Key  Point:  Rising  energy  costs  are  shifting  market  focus  from  rate  cuts  to  stagflation  risk. Mining  and  Banks...

The  Iran  conflict  has  unleashed  the  biggest  oil  market  disruption  ever  recorded ,  knocking  out 7.5%  of  global  supply  and  sending  crude  prices  back  above  US$100  per  barrel. Historic  Supply  Disruption International Energy Agency  ( IEA)  said  the  war  is  slashing  global  oil  supply  by  8  million  barrels  per  day  this  month  —  the  largest  disruption  in  oil  market  history. Flows  through  the  Strait  of  Hormuz —  which  handled  about 20  million  barrels  per  day  last  year —  have  plunged  by  more  than 90% . Key  Point:  The  effective  closure  of  Hormuz...

The European Central Bank may need to raise interest rates sooner than markets expect as the Iran war pushes energy prices higher and revives inflation risks, according to Governing Council member Peter Kazimir. While no move is expected at next week’s meeting,  upside inflation risks are now dominating the outlook , potentially bringing a rate hike closer than anticipated. Key Takeaways ECB hike could come sooner if energy shock persists Traders price ~40% chance of a quarter-point hike by June Further rate cuts now “off the table” Inflation risks seen shifting clearly to the upside Policymakers prepared to act without waiting for new forecasts Inflation Risks Back on the Radar The Iran conflict has triggered sharp swings in oil prices, raising concerns that: Businesses may pass through higher energy costs faster Workers may demand higher wages Inflation expectations could become unanchored According to Kazimir, the memory of the 2022 inflation shock — when euro-zone inflation exc...

Global inflation is set to accelerate as the Iran conflict disrupts energy markets, though economists expect economic growth to remain broadly resilient — for now. A Bloomberg survey shows rising concern that higher oil and gas prices will spill over into consumer costs worldwide. Inflation Set to Accelerate According to the Bloomberg survey: Half of respondents expect inflation to rise faster in the eurozone A similar share foresee higher inflation in the US Nearly 40% expect faster price growth in China The projected increase ranges between  0.3 to 0.9 percentage points above prior forecasts . Key Point: The Iran conflict is expected to lift global inflation through energy-driven price pressures. Energy Shock at the Core The main inflationary driver is oil and gas. Roughly  20% of global seaborne oil supply  passes through the Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint that has effectively stalled amid the conflict. Higher energy prices could trigger: Rising airfares Incr...

Prime Minister  Lawrence Wong  will deliver  Singapore Budget 2026  on  February 12 at 3:30 PM , marking the first Budget under the 15th Parliament. If Budget 2025 focused on recovery,  Budget 2026 signals a pivot toward high-quality, sustainable growth. Macro Backdrop: Strong Surplus, Stronger Leverage After a resilient 2025: GDP growth:  4.8% (advance estimate) Operating revenue:  S$98.5B (first 9 months) Corporate tax:  +11.6% YoY Key point: Singapore enters Budget 2026 with meaningful fiscal surplus and policy flexibility. This “dry powder” gives policymakers room to: Cushion cost-of-living pressures Accelerate green and digital transformation Strengthen long-term competitiveness 1️⃣ Cost-of-Living Relief — But Targeted Markets expect: Continued  utilities and transport subsidies SME rebates for rentals and utilities Extension of transfer schemes However, broad stimulus is unlikely. Relief will be precise, not expansionary — balancin...

Summary A sharp market selloff linked to  AI disruption fears  has wiped out  nearly US$1 trillion  in software stock value within days, as investors worry that artificial intelligence is  starting to replace core business models , not just hype future growth. What’s Driving the Selloff Unlike past AI pullbacks driven by valuation concerns, this rout is fuelled by  real-world evidence that AI tools may soon displace entire categories of software jobs and services . The trigger was  Anthropic’s launch of an AI legal tool , which reignited fears that AI could rapidly move beyond coding into  legal, sales, marketing, and finance functions . Key Market Impacts Nearly US$1 trillion wiped out  from software stocks tracked by an iShares ETF in just  seven days Software stocks at the epicentre , but selling has spread to  hardware, services, lenders, and private equity Over  US$17.7bn of US tech loans  now trade at  distresse...

Asian equities and gold  bounced back on Tuesday , as markets steadied after last week’s violent swings triggered by shifts in US monetary expectations and forced unwinding of leveraged trades. Why Markets Are Calmer Asian stocks rallied sharply , led by Japan and South Korea Gold and silver rebounded  after deep, leverage-driven selloffs US factory activity surprised to the upside , supporting risk sentiment Investors are refocusing on  earnings and central bank decisions Asia Market Moves Japan’s Nikkei 225:   +2.5% , recouping prior losses South Korea’s Kospi:   +4.0% Hong Kong futures:  Pointing higher S&P 500 futures:   +0.3% Australian shares rose  1.3% , while the  Australian dollar  held firm near  US$0.6958 , after logging its  biggest monthly gain in three years  in January. Gold and Silver Bounce Gold:   +3%  to  ~US$4,800/oz , nearly  9% off Monday’s lows Silver:   +5%  to...