MONEY MASTER

Global markets shifted back into  risk-off mode  after US-Iran peace talks ended without a deal, reigniting concerns over  energy supply disruptions and inflation risks . Oil Spikes as Supply Risks Intensify Brent crude surged 8% to above US$103 per barrel , reversing recent declines as the collapse in negotiations raised fears of prolonged disruption. The US move to  block Iranian ports and restrict flows through the Strait of Hormuz  — a critical global energy chokepoint — has heightened concerns over supply. Analysts warn that up to  2 million barrels of Iranian-linked oil flows  could be affected, with further risks if military tensions escalate. Dollar Strengthens, Risk Assets Retreat The US dollar strengthened broadly, reflecting safe-haven demand: Euro fell ~0.5% to US$1.1672 Yen weakened to ~159.78 per dollar Risk-sensitive currencies like the  Australian dollar and sterling declined Meanwhile,  S&P 500 futures dropped 1% , signal...

South Korea bore the brunt of Asia’s sell-off on Tuesday as soaring oil prices following US–Israeli strikes on Iran rattled markets and reignited inflation concerns across the region’s energy-importing economies. South Korea Hit Hardest KOSPI Index  plunged as much as 5.6%, marking its worst session in nearly four months. The Korean won fell up to 2% to 1,467.80 per US dollar — its weakest level in more than three weeks. A sidecar mechanism was triggered after KOSPI 200 futures dropped over 5%, temporarily halting programme trading. Key Point: South Korea led regional losses as markets priced in oil-driven inflation risks. Oil Surge Sparks Inflation Fears The US and Israel launched large-scale strikes on Iran over the weekend, prompting Tehran to shut down the Strait of Hormuz — a vital corridor handling about 20% of global oil flows. Brent crude  has surged sharply, taking year-to-date gains to roughly 30%, including nearly a 10% jump after the attacks. The spike in energy pr...

Simple Summary China’s key one-year bank funding rate has fallen to a record low PBOC charged some banks as little as 1.5% on policy loans in January Move lowers borrowing costs without headline rate cuts Signals continued, low-key support for economic growth What Happened China’s central bank, the  People’s Bank of China , allowed the interest rate on its  one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF)  to fall to  as low as 1.5% in January , down from  1.55% in December , according to people familiar with the matter. That compares with an  official MLF rate of 2% a year ago , before the PBOC stopped publishing a single benchmark rate. Why This Matters Lower funding costs for banks , encouraging lending Supports an economy facing  deflationary pressure  and a  prolonged property slump Helps stabilise  bank net interest margins , which have been under strain Key point:  This is another example of Beijing’s  “drip-feed” stimulus ap...

Quick Summary Global equities advanced  as investors leaned on earnings optimism Gold and silver hit fresh record highs  on safe-haven demand Oil prices jumped  on renewed US–Iran tensions Rate-cut expectations eased  after the Fed signalled a prolonged pause Stocks Hold Firm on Earnings Optimism World shares edged higher on Thursday as markets looked to  corporate earnings  to support valuations, even as expectations for near-term US rate cuts faded. Euro STOXX 600  rose  0.5% , supported by strength in  energy and basic resources UK, France and Spain posted gains, while  Germany slipped 0.6% S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures  rose around  0.3%  each Investors are closely watching results from  Apple , with analysts at  JPMorgan  expecting earnings to  beat consensus , driven by stronger-than-expected  iPhone 17 demand  and slower cost growth. Fed Signals: Last Cut May Be Behind Us The  Fed...

The S&P 500 struggled for direction on Thursday, holding just shy of its all-time high as traders weighed next week’s Federal Reserve decision, uneven economic data, and renewed volatility in crypto and bonds. Bitcoin halted its rebound, Treasury yields climbed, and equities lacked clear momentum. The index closed near  6,860 , barely moving on the day. Despite a drop in jobless claims — distorted by Thanksgiving timing — expectations for a Fed rate cut next week remained firm. Small caps outperformed, with the  Russell 2000 adding  0.8% . Meta rose after reports it may cut spending in its metaverse division, while Hewlett Packard Enterprise fell in late trading after a disappointing sales outlook. Recent jitters around elevated artificial-intelligence valuations briefly pressured markets, but optimism around the sector’s earnings potential and anticipated policy easing continue to support the broader rally. Rate Cut Hopes Keep Seasonal Rally in Play “The key question...

Global equities kicked off the week on a strong note, powered by a renewed wave of optimism that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December. The  S&P 500 jumped 1.5% , its strongest session in six weeks, while the  Nasdaq 100 rallied more than 2% , marking its biggest gain since May. Bitcoin also reversed earlier losses , while the US 10-year Treasury yield slipped to  4.03% , underscoring a broader risk-on shift. Rate-Cut Momentum Drives Market Mood Bullish sentiment accelerated after a series of Fed officials—including Christopher Waller, John Williams and Mary Daly—signalled they are open to a  December rate cut , even as markets navigate an economic data blackout caused by the government shutdown. With policymakers divided and data clarity muddied, traders say the Fed is operating with less visibility than usual. BNP Paribas chief US economist James Egelhof noted the current situation is “a more disorderly process than what we are accustomed to,” but stil...

US stock futures rose in early Asian trading as upbeat earnings from  Amazon.com  and  Apple Inc.  helped lift sentiment following a volatile session that saw sharp declines in major technology names. Tech Earnings Drive Overnight Turnaround Amazon  surged up to  15% in after-hours trading  after reporting its  fastest AWS growth in nearly three years , while  Apple  advanced following a  better-than-expected quarterly revenue  and a  bullish holiday outlook . Futures tied to the  S&P 500  and  Nasdaq 100  gained, partly offsetting Thursday’s broad selloff driven by concerns over heavy  AI spending  and the  Federal Reserve’s cautious tone  on rate cuts. Meta Platforms  tumbled 11% after unveiling a  US$30 billion bond issuance  and rising AI-related costs, dragging the  Nasdaq 100 down 1.5%  and the  S&P 500 down 1%  earlier in the day. “Th...

Boston Federal Reserve President  Susan Collins  said on Tuesday that it would be  “prudent to normalize policy a bit further this year”  given that inflation risks have eased while downside risks to employment are growing. Collins noted that even with some additional easing,  monetary policy would remain mildly restrictive , ensuring inflation continues to moderate once tariff effects fade. However, she emphasized that policy is  “not on a preset path” , and future decisions will depend on incoming data and evolving risks. “I can envision scenarios where appropriate policy calls for holding rates steady later this year and into next,” Collins said, signaling a  data-dependent and cautious  stance. Her comments align with market expectations of  at least one more Fed rate cut before year-end , as the central bank balances cooling inflation against softening labor conditions.

Asian equities are set to rise Thursday, tracking overnight gains on Wall Street as  AI-linked megacaps  fueled another round of record highs for U.S. benchmarks. Wall Street Rally Extends on AI Optimism U.S. stocks advanced Wednesday, led by strong demand in technology shares: S&P 500 Index : +0.6% Nasdaq 100 : +1.2% U.S.-listed Chinese stocks : +0.9%, ahead of mainland market reopening after Golden Week. Nvidia (NVDA.US)  led the gains after CEO Jensen Huang said demand for  Blackwell chips  remains “really, really high.”  Cisco Systems (CSCO.US)  rose as it stepped up competition with  Broadcom (AVGO.US)  in AI data-center networking. UBS Global Wealth Management’s  Mark Haefele  said valuations remain reasonable: “With price-earnings ratios for today’s tech giants still well below dotcom-era levels, the bull market remains intact.” A gauge of U.S. small-cap stocks also climbed 1%, suggesting broader participation beyond mega...

Key Takeaway:  The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) delivered a larger-than-expected  50-basis-point rate cut  to 2.50%, underscoring growing concern over the country’s fragile economy and keeping the door open for further monetary easing. Policy Decision The  RBNZ  lowered its  Official Cash Rate (OCR)  by  50 bps  to  2.50% , exceeding market expectations for a smaller move. In its statement, the central bank said it remains  “open to further reductions”  to support inflation sustainably near the 2% midpoint of its target range. The move marks the latest step in an aggressive easing cycle that has seen the RBNZ  cut rates by 300 bps since August 2024 , as growth momentum stalls and inflation remains within the  1–3% target band . Market Reaction Asset Latest Move NZD/USD 0.5745 -0.90% 2-year swap rate 2.521% ↓ from 2.619% The  New Zealand dollar weakened sharply , falling nearly 1% against the U.S. dollar, wh...

  Key Takeaways Wall Street rallies : S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow & Russell 2000 all closed at fresh highs after Fed’s first rate cut since 2024. KLCI dips : Index fell  0.79% to 1,598.93 , staying below the 1,600 mark. Sunway deal : RM2.42B acquisition of MCL Land to expand regional property footprint. Glove sector pressure : China-backed capacity in Indonesia & Vietnam weighs on Malaysia’s exports. Ringgit outlook : Expected to end year at 4.10–4.15 vs USD. Wall Street Recap S&P 500  +0.5% , Nasdaq  +0.9% , Dow  +0.3% , Russell 2000  +2.5% . Fed cut benchmark rate to  4%-4.25% , signaling another  50 bps by year-end . Intel surged  22.8%  on Nvidia’s $5B investment; Nvidia rose  3.5% . Bursa Malaysia FBM KLCI  closed at  1,598.93 (-0.79%) , with mixed breadth (494 gainers vs 515 losers). Top gainer : MR DIY (+2.53%). Top loser : Nestlé (-2.96%). USD/MYR : 4.2035 (+0.18%). Sector Spotlight Gloves : Malaysia’s sha...

 Key Takeaways Fed expected to cut rates by 25 bps to 4.00%-4.25%; markets watching Powell’s tone for guidance. Dollar index lingers near 2-month low; euro touched a four-year high before slight pullback. Gold extends record run, crossing US$3,700/oz for the first time; investors position for dovish Fed. Asian equities mixed: Hang Seng leads with 1.4% gain on optimism over TikTok deal; Nikkei slips. Oil steadies after recent surge; Ukraine drone strikes keep supply risks elevated. FX & Commodities The  US dollar index  edged up 0.1% to 96.72 after sliding 0.7% on Tuesday, its sharpest fall since July. The euro traded at US$1.1855, near its strongest level since 2021, while the yen held at ¥146.43. Markets have already priced in over five rate cuts this cycle, leaving limited room for further downside in the dollar. Gold  climbed 0.2% to US$3,683/oz after breaking above US$3,700 for the first time, supported by Fed easing expectations and safe-haven flows.  O...

  Key Takeaway: U.S. equities reversed early weakness to end Tuesday at fresh record highs, with investors betting that weaker labor data and large downward payroll revisions will accelerate the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut cycle. The S&P 500 gained 0.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4% to a record, while the Nasdaq 100 added 0.3%, just shy of a new peak. Market Performance S&P 500 : +0.3% to close at a record high. Dow Jones Industrial Average : +0.4%, also at a record close. Nasdaq 100 : +0.3%, narrowly missing a fresh record. Gains were led by  Alphabet (GOOGL US) , after an executive projected a US$58 billion revenue boost in its cloud unit by 2027. Drivers: Jobs Revision and Fed Outlook The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported payrolls would be revised  down by 911,000 jobs  for the 12 months through March. This follows last week’s weaker labor market data, reinforcing expectations for a dovish Fed shift. Northlight Asset Management CIO Chris Zac...

  Key Takeaways: BLS revision:  US employment from April 2024–March 2025 was revised down by  911,000 jobs , highlighting weaker labor momentum than initially reported. Broader context:  The downgrade follows sharp downward revisions in May and June, when job losses totaled 258,000. Policy implications:  Economists see limited impact on near-term Fed policy, with markets still expecting a  rate cut next week . Political backdrop:  Tensions rise as President Trump dismissed the BLS commissioner, raising concerns over the independence of US economic data. Major Payroll Revision Underscores Slowdown The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Tuesday that US payrolls expanded by  911,000 fewer jobs  in the year through March than previously estimated. This adjustment, based on more comprehensive unemployment insurance tax records (QCEW), points to a labor market that was already stalling before the latest tariff-related disruptions. The previo...

 Key Takeaway Global markets kicked off the week higher as weak U.S. jobs data reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this month. Meanwhile, Japan’s political scene was shaken by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation, sending the yen lower and spotlighting uncertainty over the Bank of Japan’s next policy steps. U.S. Rate Cuts in Focus August jobs report showed far fewer hires than expected. Markets have fully priced in a  25 bps Fed rate cut  this month, with a slim 8% chance of a larger  50 bps move . Traders expect nearly  70 bps of easing by year-end . S&P 500 futures gained 0.25% in Asian trading after last week’s record highs. Investor focus now shifts to  U.S. inflation data (Thursday) , which could influence the Fed’s tone. Yen Slumps After Ishiba Exit PM Shigeru Ishiba resigned Sunday, sparking uncertainty in the  world’s fourth-largest economy . Investors are watching if successor candidates push for  looser fisc...

Key Takeaway US stocks remain near record highs, but next week’s  CPI and PPI data  could shift sentiment as investors weigh Fed rate cuts, tariffs, and rising bond yields. The S&P 500 has gained 10% in 2025 so far, but valuations look stretched. What Investors Are Watching Inflation in Focus:  Thursday’s CPI release is the week’s main event. A hotter-than-expected print could test assumptions of imminent Fed cuts. Rate Cut Odds:  Markets are pricing in a  90% chance of a 25bps cut  at the Sept 16–17 Fed meeting, with some betting on a 50bps move. Nearly  70bps of easing  is priced in by year-end. Producer Prices:  Wednesday’s PPI data could show the impact of import tariffs, after July’s PPI saw the sharpest jump in three years. Market Risks in Play Tariffs Back in Focus:  A US appeals court ruled most of President Trump’s tariffs illegal, creating uncertainty as the administration pushes the Supreme Court to intervene. Bond Market ...