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China’s steel market is not collapsing despite the property downturn. Instead, demand is stabilising at a lower level as manufacturing, exports and new energy sectors gradually replace construction-driven demand. This is not a demand collapse, it’s a structural shift from property to industrial and export-driven demand. What’s Really Happening The sharp drop in construction activity has clearly hurt steel demand: Property-related steel (like rebar) has fallen significantly Construction’s share of demand is shrinking But the broader market tells a different story: Total steel demand is only slightly below past peaks Manufacturing, shipbuilding and energy transition sectors are absorbing demand Exports are acting as a key buffer Instead of a sudden crash, the industry is entering a  long plateau . Why This Matters The market had expected a sharp collapse but reality is more gradual: Demand is declining slowly, not falling off a cliff China is shifting from construction-led growth to ...

Top Trade Envoy Signals Hope — But Time Is Running Out South Korea is racing against the clock to secure a  last-minute trade deal with the US  before  Donald Trump’s 25% tariff on Korean exports  kicks in on  Aug 1 . Trade Minister  Yeo Han-koo  said on Monday there's a  real chance to strike an “agreement in principle”  before the deadline, with further negotiations to follow. “Twenty days are not enough for a perfect treaty,” Yeo admitted, “but a foundational agreement is still possible.” Why It Matters for Investors The  proposed 25% tariffs  threaten  South Korea’s key exports  like  automobiles and steel , which are major drivers of its GDP and global supply chains. A deal could  ease pressure on Korean equities , particularly  automakers (Hyundai, Kia)  and  industrial suppliers . The news follows  months of political instability  in Seoul, with President  Lee Jae-myung  ...

The term  “内卷” (neijuan) , or “involution,” refers to relentless competition that leads to stagnation instead of progress—think firms slashing prices to survive rather than innovate or grow. This phenomenon has become especially toxic in China’s high-stakes sectors like: Solar energy New energy vehicles (NEVs) Steel, cement, aluminum Chemicals Even downstream consumer sectors like  food and healthcare Stock Market Response: A-Shares Take the Lead Investors are starting to price in change. July saw the  CSI 300 Index  (onshore A-shares)  outperform the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index , marking a turnaround in sentiment. Notable winners: Liuzhou Iron & Steel  (+50%) Angang Steel  (+16%) Xinjiang Daqo New Energy  &  Tongwei  (+19%+) Cement, glass, and chemical stocks  also rallied Morgan Stanley  even shifted its preference toward  onshore equities , citing improved confidence. Will This Be 2015 All Over Again? Vete...

In a bold move to  shield its domestic manufacturing base , the Malaysian government has imposed  provisional anti-dumping duties  of up to  57.9%  on imports of  galvanised steel coils and sheets  from  China, South Korea, and Vietnam . The tariffs will be effective for  120 days , starting July 7, pending a final decision expected by  November 3, 2025 . This development comes after  CSC Steel Sdn Bhd  filed a petition alleging that these imported products were being  sold below their home market prices , inflicting injury on Malaysia’s steel sector. Strategic Implications for Investors The measure, introduced by the  Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry (MITI) , is part of Malaysia’s ongoing effort to strengthen  domestic industrial resilience  in the face of global oversupply and unfair trade practices. This is  a positive signal for local steel producers , particularly those operating in ...

  Key Takeaways: Steel Production Cuts:  Several Chinese steel mills, including prominent players in Xinjiang, have started cutting production as part of a broader effort to address a supply glut and low profitability in the steel industry. Mysteel reported that four steelmakers in the region have reduced output by 10%, which began on March 25. Limited Impact on National Output:  Despite the cuts, the overall impact on China’s national steel production is minimal. Xinjiang’s steel output represented just 1.3% of the country’s total production last year. The reductions amount to about 2,000 tons of daily output in a nation that produces nearly 3 million tons of steel daily. Government’s Role in Industry Adjustment:  This production cut follows a pledge made by the Chinese government earlier this month to reduce steel output. The government aims to address the overproduction crisis that has been damaging the industry’s profitability and pushing for more sustainable pro...

Peter Navarro emphasized that tariffs will play a crucial role in President Trump’s economic strategy , highlighting plans to  review global trade practices  and  enforce fair trade through reciprocal tariffs  to protect U.S. industries and national security. 🔹 Key Takeaways from Navarro’s Remarks 🔹  U.S. to investigate global trade practices  before imposing tariffs after  April 1 . 🔹  Tariffs aim to reduce the $1 trillion annual U.S. trade deficit , which Navarro labeled a  national emergency . 🔹  Focus on fairness:  The U.S. seeks  reciprocal tariffs —if countries lower tariffs on U.S. goods, the U.S. will reciprocate. 💬  Navarro:   "America has the lowest tariffs in the world, and it’s not fair. President Trump wants a level playing field." 📊 Industries in Focus 🔹  Steel & Aluminum:  Tariffs will remain due to  national security concerns  and  global subsidies  from countri...

The European Union is prioritizing negotiations over retaliatory tariffs in response to US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose 25% duties on steel and aluminum imports starting March 12 . EU officials aim to  prevent a full-scale trade war , though they remain prepared for countermeasures if talks fail. 🔹 EU’s Strategy: Dialogue Over Retaliation 📌  EU trade ministers held a video conference  to coordinate their response, emphasizing a  unified front  in upcoming negotiations. 📌  While countermeasures were discussed , including reinstating  2018 tariffs on US goods (bourbon, motorcycles, orange juice) , the primary approach remains  diplomacy . 📌  EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic  had his first call with  US officials, including Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick and USTR nominee Jamieson Greer , with both sides agreeing to meet soon. 💬  Irish Foreign Minister Simon Harris:   "There is a window for negotiat...

India is preparing to impose a  temporary tax of up to 25%  on steel imports to counter  cheap Chinese steel flooding the market , according to government and industry sources. Key Developments: Safeguard Duty Proposal A  25% safeguard duty  is under consideration to protect domestic steelmakers. An investigation led by the  Directorate General of Trade Remedies  is expected to conclude within a month, paving the way for the tax implementation. Support for MSMEs Small manufacturers  (MSMEs) initially opposed the proposal but  dropped their objections  after receiving assurances of discounted steel prices. MSMEs  registered with the government will receive steel at  FOB (free on board) export prices , about  20% lower  than market rates. Industry Concerns Major Indian steel producers such as  JSW Steel, Tata Steel, and ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India  have raised concerns about  unfair competition ...

Key Takeaway: China’s steel exports have surged to a nine-year high , but trade tensions, dumping accusations, and protectionist policies are threatening their sustainability. China’s Steel Export Boom October Exports: Over 11 million tonnes , a near-record high and the most in nine years. Driving Factors: Surplus caused by China’s property crisis and stagnant domestic demand. Heavy reliance on exports to developing economies like Southeast Asia and the Middle East through the Belt and Road Initiative . Challenges Ahead 1. Trade Tensions and Anti-Dumping Actions 25 anti-dumping investigations against Chinese steel this year, the most since 2016. Trading partners raising barriers: Vietnam: Limiting imports and re-exporting excess steel, exacerbating the global glut. Japan and South Korea: Anti-dumping probes and calls for tighter controls on steel rerouted via third countries. Domestic markets face pressure from cheap Chinese steel undercutting prices. 2. Protectionism Under Trum...

China’s steel industry, the largest in the world, is confronting a crisis more severe than the downturns experienced in 2008 and 2015, according to China Baowu Steel Group Corp, the world’s biggest steel producer. The company has warned of a prolonged and challenging period ahead, likening current conditions to a “severe winter.” Key Highlights: Crisis Deeper Than Expected: Hu Wangming, Chairman of China Baowu Steel Group, conveyed a stark message during the company’s half-year meeting, stating that the crisis is expected to be “longer, colder, and more difficult to endure” than initially anticipated. Dwindling Domestic Demand: China’s steel market is under significant pressure due to a property downturn and weaker factory activity, leading to a dramatic drop in domestic demand. Steel prices have plunged to multiyear lows, and mills are experiencing mounting losses. Historical Comparisons: The current downturn is being compared to the devastating slumps of 2008-2009 during the Globa...

  Xiamen Xiangyu Co, one of China’s leading commodity traders, is facing significant challenges following the collapse of Jiangsu Delong Nickel Industry Co, a major client in its metals business. Key Points: Parent Group Intervention: Xiamen Xiangyu announced on Monday that its state-owned parent, Xiamen Xiangyu Group Corp, would assume any financial claims related to Jiangsu Delong. This move aims to "protect the interests of the listed company and its investors." Market Reaction: Shares of Xiangyu fell 4.6% on Monday in Shanghai, reaching their lowest close since 2020, following a 10% drop on Friday due to legal actions initiated by a creditor of Jiangsu Delong. Jiangsu Delong's Impact: Jiangsu Delong, owned by metals magnate Dai Guofang, has an annual capacity to produce over 10 million tonnes of stainless steel and alloys from its plants in China and Indonesia. However, it is currently struggling due to falling nickel prices. Exposure and Financial Details: Xiangyu...

Upgrade to outperform call with an increased target price (TP) of RM2.24. Last week, the Federal Government issued provisional safeguard measures for steel coils and reinforced bars at a duty rate of 13.9% and 13.4% imposed respectively towards exporting countries into Malaysian shores. Positive on the measure as it would boost ANNJOO’s steel re-bars ASPs. Upgrade FY17E earnings by 20% on the back of 8% higher ASP assumption. Post earnings adjustment, upgrade ANNJOO to OUTPERFORM (from MP) with higher TP to RM2.24 (from RM1.69) after switching valuation methodology from 0.76x FY17 PBV to 7.0x FY17 PER. Ann Joo Resources Bhd Approval of provisional safeguard measures. Last week, the Federal Government issued provisional safeguard measures in relation to steel coils and reinforced bars after 4 months of investigations. The measure entails safeguard duties of 13.9% for steel coils and 13.4% for steel rebars which will be imposed towards a list of 40 exporting countries begin...