MONEY MASTER

The US says the Strait of Hormuz will reopen quickly but global allies are not convinced. That gap in expectations could be a key risk for markets. Key Points US expects Hormuz reopening within days European allies warn it could take  weeks, not days Mine-clearing and security risks remain unresolved Shipping may take  up to 2 weeks to resume meaningfully Full normalisation could take  much longer Disagreements persist on  rules, tolls, and control of the strait Markets may be pricing in a smooth reopening, but reality could be slower and more complex. Why the Delay Matters Reopening Hormuz is not just a political decision, it is an operational challenge: Mines may still be present Ships need  security guarantees Insurance and risk tolerance vary among shippers This means even after a deal is signed,  confidence will take time to return . A Divided Global Response At the G7 level: The US is pushing for a  rapid reopening Europe is demanding  clari...

Global bond markets came under pressure as  rising oil prices and prolonged geopolitical tensions  pushed yields higher, forcing investors to reassess expectations for monetary easing. Yields Jump as Inflation Risks Intensify The  US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.376% , rising  5 basis points , while the  2-year yield increased to 3.856% , reflecting heightened concern over inflation. The move follows comments from  Donald Trump , which offered  little clarity on ending the Gulf conflict  and no commitment to reopening the  Strait of Hormuz , a critical global energy route. Oil Surge Drives Market Repricing Oil prices reacted sharply, with  Brent crude jumping 6% , amplifying fears of sustained inflation. The disruption to the  Strait of Hormuz  has created bottlenecks across global supply chains, affecting a wide range of industries including: Fuel and energy products Chemicals and fertilisers Pharmaceuticals and constru...

Japanese equities declined sharply on Thursday as  rising oil prices and a hawkish Federal Reserve outlook  dampened investor sentiment, highlighting growing concerns over  inflation and global growth risks . Broad-Based Selloff Across Japanese Equities The  Topix Index fell 2.1% to 3,640 , while the  Nikkei 225 dropped 2.8% , reversing recent gains. Market breadth was notably weak, with  over 1,500 stocks declining versus fewer than 50 gainers , reflecting a broad risk-off move. Heavyweights such as  Mitsubishi Corp.  led declines, while cyclical sectors including  chemicals and industrials  came under pressure. Oil Shock Drives Market Weakness The selloff was triggered by a surge in energy prices after renewed attacks on  Middle East energy infrastructure . Brent crude surged above US$110 per barrel Heightened risks to  global energy supply chains This has intensified fears of  imported inflation , particularly for energ...

US  Treasury  volatility  has  surged  to  its  highest  level  in  nine  months,  as  the  Iran  war  disrupts  rate  expectations  and  revives  fears  of  persistent  inflation. MOVE  Index  Spikes  as  Inflation  Worries  Mount The  ICE BofA MOVE Index  —  widely  known  as  the  bond  market’s “ fear  gauge” —  climbed  to  levels  last  seen  in  June. The  jump  reflects: Elevated  oil  prices Rising  inflation  expectations Reduced  confidence  in  Treasuries  as  safe- haven  assets Key  Point:  Bond  investors  are  now  pricing  in  greater  uncertainty  around  inflation  and  Federal  Reserve  policy. Long- Term...

Market  Snapshot Global  financial  markets  came  under  pressure  after  attacks  on  oil  tankers  in  the  Persian  Gulf  and  renewed  warnings  from  Iran   raised  fears  of  a  deeper  energy  supply  crisis. The  escalation  briefly  pushed  Brent  crude  above  US$100  per  barrel ,  marking  one  of  the  sharpest  moves  in  oil  prices  since  the  conflict  began. Equities  reacted  negatively  as  investors  reassessed  the  risks  of  prolonged  disruption  to  Middle  East  energy  exports . In  early  US  trading: Dow  Jones  Industrial  Average:   -1.26% S& P 500:   -0.82% Nasdaq  Composite:   -0...

Global equities found temporary footing after oil prices retreated, but volatility remains elevated as the US–Israeli war with Iran continues to cloud the outlook for inflation and growth. While reports of a potential historic oil reserve release helped calm markets, investors remain focused on whether energy disruptions will persist — and for how long. Key Takeaways Shares rebound as oil pulls back from recent highs Brent crude volatile around US$87 per barrel Dollar remains the dominant safe-haven asset Bond yields steady but inflation fears linger Markets trading on headlines, not long-term outlook Oil Turbulence Drives Market Mood Brent crude swung between gains and losses, trading around US$87 per barrel, while US crude hovered near US$83. The pullback followed a report that the International Energy Agency proposed its largest-ever oil reserve release to ease supply pressure. However, markets remain sensitive to any signs of prolonged disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. Analy...

Quick Summary China kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged  for the ninth straight month 1-year LPR stays at  3.0% , 5-year LPR at  3.5% Authorities prefer  targeted tools over broad rate cuts Growth expected to slow to  4.5% in 2026 What Happened China left its benchmark  Loan Prime Rates (LPRs)  unchanged in February: 1-year LPR:  3.0% 5-year LPR:  3.5% The decision marks the  ninth consecutive month of steady rates , suggesting policymakers are  not in a hurry to roll out fresh broad-based stimulus . The rates are set by the  People's Bank of China  (PBOC) . Why No Immediate Cuts? While China hit its  ~5% growth target in 2025 , largely thanks to strong exports, several headwinds persist: Structural imbalances Industrial overcapacity Weak domestic consumption Rising geopolitical tensions A Reuters poll forecasts  growth slowing to 4.5% in 2026 . Key point:  Policymakers appear to be conserving policy ...