MONEY MASTER

Quick Summary TSMC’s January revenue surged past NT$400 billion , beating expectations US payrolls data delayed  to Feb 11 due to government shutdown Microsoft now trades cheaper than IBM on forward P/E  for the first time in 10 years AI capex remains the market’s key pressure point Before the Bell: Futures Check US stock futures were steady after the Dow hit another record high: Nasdaq 100 futures:  +0.03% S&P 500 futures:  +0.09% Dow futures:  +0.05% TSMC Leads the AI Supply Chain Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co  reported  January revenue of NT$401.26 billion , up: +36.8% year-on-year +19.8% month-on-month Key takeaway:  AI-driven demand continues to flow straight into foundry earnings, reinforcing TSMC’s position at the core of the global AI buildout. Jobs Data Delay Adds Uncertainty The  January Nonfarm Payrolls report  has been pushed to  Feb 11  due to the partial US government shutdown. Report will include...

  Key Takeaway Asian markets tracked Wall Street higher on Friday as investors grew more confident the Federal Reserve will cut rates on Sept 17. Treasury yields slipped to multi-month lows, while traders braced for the U.S. August non-farm payrolls report later in the day. Market Highlights Wall Street:  S&P 500 closed +0.8% at a record high; Nasdaq gained 1%. Futures point to more modest gains. Asia: Japan’s  Nikkei +0.8% , nearing record highs Taiwan benchmark +0.8% Hong Kong Hang Seng +0.4% China blue chips +0.4% Australia +0.3% Bonds & Rates U.S. Treasury yields eased to four-month lows: 10-year:  4.15% 2-year:  3.58% 30-year:  4.84% Japanese 30-year JGB:  3.235% , retreating from record high. Fed funds futures: Markets price in  25 bps cut in September  and ~60 bps of easing by year-end. Currencies & Commodities Dollar Index:  Down 0.1% to 98.095; still up 0.3% for the week. Gold:  Steady at  US$3,552/oz , off...

Key Takeaway A September Fed rate cut looks certain. The real question for investors is whether this marks the  start of a full easing cycle  or just a  one-off move . Friday’s jobs data and next week’s annual revision will shape the answer. Why Friday’s NFP Matters The August Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) is seen as the final piece before the Fed’s Sept. 17 decision. Powell has already signaled dovish intent, meaning the bar is high to prevent a cut. Moderately Weak Data (50k–100k jobs):  Confirms a 25bp cut but cools hopes for back-to-back cuts. Short-term boost for equities possible. Sharply Weak Data (below 30k jobs):  Could trigger recession fears, raising chances of a larger 50bp cut — but risk-off sentiment may weigh on stocks. The Bigger Test: BLS Annual Revision On Sept. 9, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its annual benchmark revision. Nomura expects  600k–900k jobs to be erased  from the past year’s data, showing job growth was overstat...

  Market Setup Futures : Mixed as traders await U.S. jobs data. S&P 500 E-mini:  +0.18% Nasdaq 100 E-mini:  +0.12% Dow Futures:  –0.07%  (–30 pts) Key Headlines Trump: Tariffs as Income Tax Alternative? Trump floated replacing  income tax with tariffs , calling them “critical” to U.S. success. Court challenges ongoing — federal appeals court ruled most tariffs  illegal ; Trump seeking  Supreme Court hearing . Claims success: e.g., India lowering barriers due to U.S. tariffs. Trump Hosts Tech Titans Tonight Dinner in the renovated Rose Garden with: Mark Zuckerberg (Meta) Tim Cook (Apple) Bill Gates (Microsoft co-founder) Sam Altman (OpenAI) Sundar Pichai (Alphabet) Aim: Showcase alignment with tech leaders amid regulatory and AI innovation debates. Nasdaq Tightens IPO Rules (Small & Chinese Firms Targeted) SEC filing  proposes: Raise  public float threshold  to  $15M  (from $5M). Stricter delisting for firms  ...

Key Takeaway Weak U.S. labor data pushed traders to almost fully price in a  September Fed rate cut , sending Treasuries and tech stocks higher. Markets now anticipate at least  two cuts in 2025 , with Friday’s payrolls report as the next key test. Market Snapshot S&P 500 : +0.5% to 6,438.26 Nasdaq Composite : +1% to 21,497.73 Dow Jones : –0.1% to 45,271.23 30Y Treasury Yield : Near 5% before rebounding USD : Weaker; Dollar Index fell Gold : Record US$3,640.10 (+1.3%) on rate cut bets Key Drivers JOLTS Report : Job openings fell to 10-month low, signaling softer labor demand. Fed Expectations : Traders now see 95%+ chance of a 25bps cut in September; at least two cuts priced in for 2025. Tech Rally : Alphabet hit record high (Google Chrome ruling). Apple advanced on AI-powered Siri search plans. Corporate Moves : Salesforce warned on weaker sales growth after hours. Fed & Analyst Commentary Fed Governor Waller : Supports starting cuts in September, with debate over pac...

Key Takeaway Asian stocks recovered on Thursday after Federal Reserve officials hinted at upcoming rate cuts, calming nerves from a bond market selloff. Softer U.S. jobs data also reinforced expectations of easing. Market Snapshot MSCI Asia ex-Japan : +0.5% Australia (ASX 200) : +0.7%, rebounding from worst drop since April Japan (Nikkei 225) : +1.2% at open China (Shanghai Composite) : –0.4%, tracking third straight decline on regulatory cooling measures Driving Factors Fed Support for Cuts : Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled backing for rate cuts in coming months. Stephen Miran (Trump’s Fed Board nominee) emphasized commitment to central bank independence. Jobs Data : Weak JOLTS job openings reinforced bets on a September cut. Beige Book : Painted a mixed U.S. economic outlook, with tariff-related price risks noted. Bond & Currency Moves U.S. Treasuries : 10-year yield at 4.2129% (vs. 4.211% prior close) 2-year yield at 3.6166% (vs. 3.612% prior close) Currencies : USD/JPY...

Limited Appetite for Rate Cuts Among Fed Policymakers Despite headline-grabbing dissents from two prominent Federal Reserve governors, the  July FOMC meeting minutes suggest overwhelming consensus among policymakers to  hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% . According to the minutes released on Wednesday: “Almost all participants viewed it as appropriate to maintain the target range…” Only Vice Chair for Supervision  Michelle Bowman  and Governor  Christopher Waller  favored a  25-basis-point cut , citing concerns over labor market deterioration. This marks the first instance of multiple governor-level dissents since 1993, yet no other members joined their call. Data Post-Meeting Validates Concerns—But Too Late? Within  48 hours of the July 29–30 meeting , new labor market data showed: Substantially lower job creation in July A rising unemployment rate Labor force participation at its weakest since 2022 More critically, historical rev...

Global Market Snapshot S&P 500 : 🔼 +0.47% |  New record close Nasdaq : 🔼 +0.94% |  3rd record high this year Dow Jones : 🔽 -0.02% | Slight pullback 10-Year US Treasury Yield : ⬆ 4.29% Focus : Thursday’s US  jobs report  could  make or break  rate-cut expectations. Big Tech Surge : Apple : +2.2% Nvidia : +2.6% Tesla : +5% — despite a 13% drop in deliveries, investors are betting on  robotaxi and AI upside . Investor Insight : The “Magnificent Seven” are still driving this market. But cracks are forming in the labor market — meaning  rate cut bets  are back on the table. Malaysia Market Recap KLCI : 🔼 +8.68 pts to  1,550.21 USD/MYR : ⬆ 160 pips to 4.2260 (USD rebound) MGS 10Y Yield : Steady at 3.45% Sector Leaders : 🚧 Construction: +1.29% ✈️ Transportation: +0.91% 🔋 Energy: +0.76% 🌴 Plantation: -0.08% (only laggard) Local View : KLCI rose with strength in  infrastructure, logistics , and  energy  — hinting at rota...

  Key Highlights: Treasuries Rally as Rate-Cut Bets Strengthen: Yields on two-year notes , sensitive to Fed policy changes, dropped 7 basis points to 4.08% . Traders are now pricing in 80% odds of a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed's December meeting, up from 67% earlier this week. November Jobs Data - Mixed Signals: Job creation rose to 227,000 (above the 220,000 forecast). The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% , reflecting a moderating labor market. Wage growth increased by 4% year-on-year , slightly above expectations. Market Reaction: Traders responded with record activity in short-term interest-rate futures , betting heavily on a December rate cut. University of Michigan consumer sentiment hit an eight-month high of 74.0, with one-year inflation expectations rising to 2.9% , the highest since July. Economists’ Insights: "Goldilocks zone": Kevin Flanagan of WisdomTree said the data reassured investors by being “not too hot, not too cold.” Fed’s Approach: Econ...

Key Highlights: Record Market Highs: The S&P 500 reached its 57th record close in 2024, up nearly 30% year-to-date, marking its best annual performance since 2019. Nasdaq rose 0.9% , while the Dow Jones fell slightly by 0.1% . Jobs Report Boosts Rate Cut Bets: November job growth rebounded, with nonfarm payrolls up by 227,000 . Unemployment edged up to 4.2% , reinforcing expectations of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December. Market Sentiment: Analysts described the labor report as a “ Goldilocks zone ” scenario—steady growth without overheating. Traders now see a 90% probability of a rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting. Sector Movers: Tech & Consumer Discretionary: Meta, Alphabet, Tesla, and Lululemon saw significant gains. Crypto: Bitcoin climbed 2.5% , surpassing $101,500 , driven by optimism around the Fed’s policy. Upcoming Catalysts: Inflation Data: Core inflation data next week will be crucial to solidify expectations for further rate cuts in 2025. Fed Commenta...

Wall Street’s major indexes gained on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting intraday record highs. The boost came as traders increased bets on a December Federal Reserve rate cut, fueled by stronger-than-expected November jobs data. Jobs Data Sparks Optimism U.S. job growth surged in November, rebounding from hurricane and strike disruptions. While the labor market showed resilience, analysts said the report suggests a steady easing in conditions, paving the way for the Fed to lower interest rates. “This jobs report hits the Goldilocks zone — not too hot to derail rate cuts, but not too cold to spark economic fears,” said Josh Jamner, investment strategy analyst at ClearBridge Investments. Traders now see a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s Dec. 17-18 meeting, up from 67% before the jobs report. Market Highlights Indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.11% to 44,815.17. S&P 500 gained 0.36% to 6,097.33. Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.72% to 19,84...