MONEY MASTER

Key Takeaways: Fed in focus:  Markets increasingly price in a  25bps cut next week , with odds of a  50bps cut rising to 11%  after weak U.S. jobs data. European resilience:  STOXX 600 edged up  0.1% , shrugging off French government collapse. FX & bonds:  The  euro hit a 6-week high  before easing, while U.S. Treasury yields remain near multi-month lows. Commodities:  Gold hit a  record US$3,659/oz , oil climbed on a modest OPEC+ supply boost. Markets Look Past France, Focus on Fed European and Asian equities stayed upbeat Tuesday, with  STOXX 600 up 0.1%  and  MSCI Asia +0.9% , as investors shifted attention from political upheaval in France to expectations of U.S. rate cuts. France’s government collapsed after Prime Minister Francois Bayrou lost a no-confidence vote (364–194), but the outcome was widely expected. President Emmanuel Macron has ruled out a snap election, easing near-term risks. French 10-year yie...

Key Takeaway:  U.S. equities advanced Monday, with the  Nasdaq closing at an all-time high  and the  S&P 500 gaining 0.21% , as weaker jobs data reinforced expectations for faster Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Market Overview The  S&P 500 (.SPX)  rose  0.21% , while the  Nasdaq Composite  reached a fresh record close. The  Dow Jones Industrial Average  also edged higher. Treasury yields extended Friday’s rally, reflecting growing conviction that the  Fed will cut rates next week . Traders are pricing a roughly  two-thirds probability  that the Fed reduces rates by  75 basis points by year-end , delivered in three quarter-point cuts across its remaining 2025 meetings. A smaller group — about  7% of traders  — expect a full  100-basis-point reduction , implying at least one larger cut. Economic Calendar Markets are now focused on key U.S. data releases this week: Tuesday:  Labor D...

Key Takeaway:  Singapore Exchange ( SGX ) posted strong February market statistics with a 17% jump in securities turnover, even as local shares opened weaker on Tuesday amid global macro uncertainty. Singapore Market Snapshot The  FTSE Straits Times Index (.STI)  opened lower on Tuesday, slipping  0.24% to 4,298.29  at 9:30 am. Trading volume stood at  299.79 million shares  with a value of  S$267.82 million . Market breadth showed  132 advancers versus 104 decliners . U.S. Market Lead Wall Street extended gains on Monday as investors positioned ahead of key economic data. The  Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)  rose  0.25% , the  S&P 500 (.SPX.US)  gained  0.21% , and the  Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC.US) advanced  0.45% . Markets widely expect the  Federal Reserve  to cut rates next week, with traders pricing in a two-thirds chance of  three quarter-point cuts by year-end . The imme...

 Key Takeaway Trump’s sweeping 50% tariffs on imports from Brazil and India are reshaping global trade flows. Brazil is redirecting coffee exports to China, India is moving seafood and tea toward Europe and Asia, and U.S. manufacturers are reporting rising costs and layoffs. For U.S. consumers, the result could be higher prices at the grocery store and for everyday goods. Brazil: Coffee Beans Flow East Brazil, the  world’s top coffee supplier , faces a 50% U.S. tariff. More than  180 Brazilian coffee firms  have registered to export to China, shifting supply toward its booming café culture. Coffee traders call it an “unprecedented” pivot, signaling China’s growing leverage in commodities markets. India: Seafood & Tea Rerouted Indian  seafood and tea producers  hit by U.S. tariffs and energy-related levies. Exporters are turning to  China and Europe  as alternative markets. Industry leaders warn: African suppliers may undercut India on price, r...

Key Takeaway A September Fed rate cut looks certain. The real question for investors is whether this marks the  start of a full easing cycle  or just a  one-off move . Friday’s jobs data and next week’s annual revision will shape the answer. Why Friday’s NFP Matters The August Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) is seen as the final piece before the Fed’s Sept. 17 decision. Powell has already signaled dovish intent, meaning the bar is high to prevent a cut. Moderately Weak Data (50k–100k jobs):  Confirms a 25bp cut but cools hopes for back-to-back cuts. Short-term boost for equities possible. Sharply Weak Data (below 30k jobs):  Could trigger recession fears, raising chances of a larger 50bp cut — but risk-off sentiment may weigh on stocks. The Bigger Test: BLS Annual Revision On Sept. 9, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its annual benchmark revision. Nomura expects  600k–900k jobs to be erased  from the past year’s data, showing job growth was overstat...

Key Takeaway OpenAI is working with Broadcom to design and produce its own  AI chips starting in 2026 , a move that could shake up Nvidia’s dominance in the accelerator market. The first chips are expected to ship next year and will initially be used internally. What’s Happening Partnership:  OpenAI will leverage Broadcom’s expertise to bring custom AI accelerators to market. Competition:  The chips are designed to rival Nvidia’s GPUs, which currently lead the AI hardware space. Broadcom’s Confirmation:  CEO Hock Tan said Thursday that one prospective customer (likely OpenAI) has already released  production orders , boosting its fiscal 2026 AI revenue outlook. Market Impact Broadcom (AVGO):  Likely to benefit from long-term AI demand beyond just hyperscalers. Nvidia (NVDA):  Faces potential competition if OpenAI chips prove efficient and scalable. AI Ecosystem:  More custom-built chips could diversify supply chains and reduce reliance on Nvidia. ...

Key Takeaway Singapore’s benchmark  STI crossed 4,300  on Friday, hitting a fresh high. Wall Street optimism, tariff news, and strong fund inflows are supporting sentiment. Meanwhile,  Olam Group and Yangzijiang Financial  have been added to the STI reserve list in the latest index shuffle. Market Snapshot STI : 4,310.54 (+0.32%) Advancers/Decliners : 104 / 40 Volume/Value : 228.04M / S$178.59M Wall Street Boosts Global Sentiment US markets rallied: S&P 500  closed at a record 6,502.08 (+0.8%). Nasdaq  jumped 1% to 21,707.69. Dow Jones  rose 0.8% to 45,621.29. Amazon surged 4.3% after securing a deal with JetBlue for in-flight WiFi. Jobs data came in weaker than expected, raising hopes for a  0.25% Fed rate cut in September  (odds now at 97.6%). Breaking News – Tariffs & Trade US-Japan Trade Deal : Tariffs on Japanese autos cut from 25% to 15%. In return, Japan will cut tariffs on US goods and invest US$550B in US infrastructure. Sing...

Key Takeaway Pre-market trade shows a sharp split between earnings-driven winners and guidance-related laggards. Small caps benefited from insider buying and dividends, while large-cap tech and pharma names faced pressure from weaker outlooks. Expect heightened volatility into the open as traders weigh growth momentum against valuation risks. Major Gainers BrilliA (BRIA.US) +110% after declaring a special cash dividend of $0.133 per share Bolt Projects (BSLK.US) +49% following insider purchases disclosed in Form 4 filings HWH International (HWH.US) +27% after trading resumed from a circuit breaker halt Biodesix (BDSX.US) +25% on director’s $1.5m share purchase American Eagle (AEO.US) +24% after stronger-than-expected Q2 earnings Credo Technology (CRDO.US) +12% after Stifel raised its target price to $155 from $130 Asana (ASAN.US) +6% on solid Q2 results and raised FY2026 guidance Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE.US) +5% after earnings beat and upgraded outlook NuScale Power (SMR.US) +4%...

Key Takeaway Global equities stabilized Thursday as dovish Fed commentary and smooth Japanese bond issuance calmed recent rate volatility. While China’s sell-off weighed on Asian sentiment, Europe and U.S. futures signaled resilience ahead of Friday’s payrolls. Market Snapshot STOXX 600 : +0.3% MSCI Asia ex-Japan : –0.2% Nikkei 225 : +1.5% Australia ASX 200 : +1% India Sensex : +1% (post-levy cuts) U.S. 10Y Treasury yield : 4.2% (↓) U.S. 2Y Treasury yield : 3.6% (flat) Brent crude : –0.6% at $67.17 Gold : –0.8% at $3,578.50 (off record highs) Dollar Index : flat; USD/JPY 148.25; EUR/USD $1.1650 Drivers of the Rebound Fed Rate Cut Bets : Futures now price a  near-100% chance  of a 25bp cut on Sept 17, supporting equities and bonds. Japan Debt Auction : Smooth 30-year JGB issuance helped calm global bond jitters. China Cooldown : Regulators considering market curbs triggered a 6% drop in STAR50 index, but spillover was contained. Policy Moves Elsewhere : India : Tax cuts to coun...

Key Takeaways The US faces rising debt issuance needs amid an aging population and slowing growth. Foreign demand for Treasuries has softened, while the Fed is winding down QE, shifting the burden to domestic retail investors and mutual funds. Bond demand from older Americans is largely regulation-driven (e.g., target-date funds), not a natural preference. Financial repression—policies that push savers into bonds—may become necessary, but risks lower returns and slower economic growth. Japan offers a cautionary precedent: high debt sustained by pension funds and QE, but vulnerable to inflation and bond market stress. Analysis The longer-term US debt outlook is shaped by demographic shifts and constrained global demand. With fewer foreign buyers and the Fed retreating, domestic investors—particularly through retirement plans—will likely be leaned on more heavily. Target-date funds, which automatically shift portfolios into bonds as savers age, have already become a central mechanism in ...

  Key Takeaways: Q2 beat, Q3 miss : Dell’s Q2 earnings of  $2.32/share  topped consensus ($2.29), but Q3 EPS guidance of  $2.45/share midpoint  fell short of expectations ($2.55). Revenue momentum : Q2 revenue rose to  $29.78 billion , ahead of estimates ($29.0 billion), reflecting resilience in PC and server demand. Market reaction : Shares slipped  4.4% after-hours , as investors focused on weaker earnings guidance despite a headline beat. Sector context : The miss highlights ongoing margin pressures in the PC and server industry, even as peers such as  HP Inc (+4.57%)  and  Microsoft (+0.57%)  trade higher on AI-driven optimism. Results Breakdown Q2 Earnings : Adjusted EPS: $2.32 vs. $2.29 expected. Revenue: $29.78B vs. $29.0B expected. Q3 Guidance : EPS: $2.45 (midpoint) vs. $2.55 expected. Revenue outlook not disclosed in detail but implied softer margins. Market and Investor Sentiment The results illustrate a  classic “be...

Nvidia delivered another revenue beat and forecast stronger sales ahead, yet its stock slipped as investors fixated on weakness in China and hints of more cautious cloud spending. Q3 Outlook: Higher but Not Enough Guidance:  Revenue of  US$54B ±2% , topping Wall Street’s US$53.14B consensus (LSEG). Reaction:  Shares fell  2.6% after hours , erasing  US$110B in market cap  — more than Intel’s entire valuation. Why the sell-off:  Analysts noted the forecast excluded China, leaving upside only if shipments resume. China Question Mark Nvidia halted shipments of its  H20 chips  to China amid US trade restrictions. A deal with the Trump administration requires Nvidia to pay  15% commission on China sales  in exchange for eased restrictions, though Beijing has cautioned local firms against imports. Nvidia had earlier warned curbs could cost  US$8B in July-quarter sales . Q2 Performance Highlights Revenue:  US$46.74B (vs. US$46.06...

With technology stocks trading near record valuations, Citi strategists argue that investors should look beyond the sector for the next leg of growth. Their  “Thematic 30” Recommended List , recently updated, highlights non-tech companies in  healthcare, industrials, financials, and consumer  that combine earnings growth with reasonable valuations. Why Look Beyond Tech? Tech valuations stretched : The S&P 500 tech sector trades at  27x forward earnings , near the high end of its range since 2022. PEG ratio elevated : At ~2x PEG (P/E-to-growth), tech leaves limited upside unless growth expectations accelerate. Rotation opportunity : Non-tech sectors offer similar or stronger growth at lower relative valuations. Citi’s Screening Criteria Participation in structural themes  – e.g., digital payments, medical innovation, advanced industrials, or contactless consumer trends. Growth in line or above S&P 500  – analysts forecast ~10% EPS growth for the S...

 Market Snapshot STI : 4,241.61 (-0.35%) Volume / Value : 78.17M / S$90.33M Advancers / Decliners : 58 / 84 Singapore equities opened softer on Tuesday, tracking Wall Street losses overnight as investors brace for  Nvidia’s earnings  midweek and watch inflation data to gauge the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. Global Highlights Wall Street Slips Ahead of Nvidia Earnings Dow Jones: -0.8% to 45,282.47 S&P 500: -0.4% to 6,439.32 Nasdaq: -0.2% to 21,449.29 US stocks eased after Friday’s Fed-fuelled rally, with investors cautious ahead of Nvidia’s Q2 earnings on Wednesday and the Fed’s  preferred PCE inflation data  on Friday. Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole remarks lifted September rate-cut odds to  86% (CME FedWatch) , but sticky inflation could derail expectations. Trump Removes Fed Governor Cook In a move rattling markets, President  Donald Trump dismissed Fed Governor Lisa Cook , citing alleged mortgage fraud. The unprecedented dismissal raises qu...

Powell’s Pivot Sparks Rally U.S. Treasuries rallied Friday after  Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled readiness to cut rates  as soon as September, ending an eight-month pause. Powell highlighted that  labor market risks now outweigh inflation concerns , opening the door to easier policy. Market reaction: 2-year yield:  –10 bps to  3.7% , near early-August lows. Curve steepening:  5s30s spread widened to highest since 2021, reflecting bets that short-term yields will fall faster. Rate pricing:  Futures imply  two cuts by year-end , with a small chance of a third. Still, traders only assign an  ~80% probability  of a September cut, underscoring caution ahead of key economic data. The Data Test Ahead Bond bulls must navigate a series of critical catalysts before the  Sept. 17 FOMC meeting : PCE inflation (this week):  Expected to show  core at 2.9% , near post-2023 highs. Jobs report (early Sept.):  Prior data showed weake...

History Backs a Bullish Setup The Federal Reserve looks set to cut rates in September after holding steady since December 2024. History suggests that such pauses often precede strong equity rallies: the  S&P 500 gained in 10 of the last 11 instances  when the Fed waited  5–12 months  before easing again. Investor psychology:  The pause may have allowed markets to reset, with optimism returning as the Fed turns dovish. Powell’s signal:  The Fed chair hinted Friday that labor market concerns now outweigh inflation risks, fueling expectations of easing. Market Expectations September cut odds:  85% chance of a  25bps cut , up from 75% last week (CME FedWatch). Multiple cuts priced in:  Markets see ~84% probability of at least  two cuts this year  with three meetings left (Sept, Oct, Dec). Current market moves: Dow:  +1.5% (record close) S&P 500:  +0.3% Nasdaq:  –0.6%  (tech lagging) What Could Change the Fed’...

Magnificent Seven Face Growing Scrutiny After months of powering Wall Street’s gains, the  Magnificent Seven tech giants  — Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla — are losing steam. Rising doubts about  AI’s near-term profitability , stretched valuations, and shifting capital into other sectors have raised concerns about how much further tech can run. Nvidia earnings ahead : Seen as a critical test for the sector’s momentum. Rotation in play : Energy, materials, and real estate all outperformed tech last week. Tech lagging despite Powell boost : Even with Powell’s dovish hints on rate cuts, the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 1.6% for the week. Why Investors Are Pulling Back Valuations stretched : Investors like Joshua Boyer are trimming holdings, citing overextended prices relative to earnings. Retail selling picks up : For the first time in two months, retail investors were  net sellers , focusing on names like Palantir, Alphabet, and Broadcom (JPMo...

 Market Overview Singapore:  Straits Times Index (STI) opened higher at  4,263.99 (+0.26%) , with  152 advancers vs. 20 decliners . U.S.:  Stocks surged Friday after Powell signaled a dovish pivot at Jackson Hole. Global:  Canada eases U.S. trade tensions by dropping certain USMCA-compliant tariffs. U.S. Markets – Fed Pivot Lifts Wall Street Powell’s Remarks:  Suggested a possible  rate cut in September , citing inflation risks and a weakening labor market. Jobs Data:  July added  73K jobs , well below expectations, with sharp downward revisions for prior months. Market Reaction: Dow Jones:  +1.9% to 45,631.74 (over +800 points) S&P 500:  +1.5% to 6,466.91 Nasdaq:  +1.9% to 21,496.53 Sectors:  Consumer discretionary, energy, and communication services led; consumer staples lagged. Rate Cut Odds:  FedWatch tool shows  85% probability of 25bps cut in September , up from 75% a day earlier. Investor Takeaway...