MONEY MASTER

After months of tame inflation,  June CPI data is expected to show a shift , thanks to  tariff-driven price pressures  filtering into the system. According to Bloomberg’s survey,  core CPI (ex-food & energy)  likely rose  0.3% month-on-month , the biggest jump in five months. On a yearly basis,  core inflation is forecast to tick up to 2.9% , marking the first acceleration since January. The inflation uptick is a red flag for the Fed — and for rate cut hopes. Tariffs → Higher Import Costs → Rising Prices While the  pass-through from tariffs  remains modest for now, economists warn that this could  build gradually over the next quarters , especially if importers continue to pass on costs. But don’t expect aggressive pricing yet — retailers are facing  soft consumer demand  and a  cooling job market , making it risky to raise prices too quickly. Consumer Spending Remains Cautious Retail sales data due Thursday will show ...

Cracks are beginning to show in the eurozone’s labor market , prompting the European Central Bank (ECB) to consider speeding up interest rate cuts. Despite record-low joblessness following the inflation shock, policymakers are now seeing early signs of a slowdown that has pushed them to back another reduction in borrowing costs this week. While the ECB doesn’t have the same dual mandate as the Federal Reserve —which targets both price stability and full employment—a weakening labor market could still significantly impact the ECB’s inflation outlook. With major companies like BASF SE and Thyssenkrupp AG cutting staff, some officials fear a deeper deterioration that could rattle a region already on the brink of recession. Economist Soeren Radde from Point72 expects the ECB to begin cutting rates this month and continue doing so, noting that the key concern is the labor market . ECB President Christine Lagarde , who in July cited the strength of the jobs market as a reason for cautio...