Shutdown Deadline Approaches
Asian shares opened cautiously on Monday as investors weighed the risk of a potential U.S. government shutdown. Without a funding deal, the shutdown could begin Wednesday, coinciding with the rollout of new U.S. tariffs on heavy trucks, pharmaceuticals, and other products.
President Donald Trump is set to meet congressional leaders later Monday in an effort to secure an extension. Analysts warn that a prolonged closure would delay critical economic data releases — including the September payrolls report — leaving the Federal Reserve (Fed) with less visibility ahead of its Oct 29 meeting.
Fed Implications
Bank of America (BofA) analysts noted that if the shutdown extends beyond October, the Fed would have to rely more on private-sector data.
Markets currently price in a 90% chance of a Fed rate cut in October and a 65% probability of another in December.
Economic growth impact is estimated at just 0.1 percentage point per week, though lasting layoffs could weigh more heavily on payrolls and consumer sentiment.
Global Market Snapshot
US Futures: S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures both rose 0.2% after modest declines last week.
Europe: EUROSTOXX 50, FTSE, and DAX futures each gained 0.3%.
Asia:
Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.7% but is still up 6% in September.
South Korea rebounded 1.2%, bringing monthly gains to 6.3%.
MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index rose 0.4%, up nearly 4% for the month.
Currencies & Bonds
US 10-year Treasuries: Yield held at 4.17% after strong U.S. data pressured bonds last week.
Dollar: Index steady at 98.134.
Euro at US$1.1708 (range: US$1.1646–1.1918).
Yen at ¥149.49, off September lows of ¥145.50.
Commodities
Gold: Near record highs at US$3,764/oz, supported by safe-haven demand.
Oil: Fell after crude exports resumed from Iraq’s Kurdistan region to Türkiye for the first time in 2½ years.
Brent down 0.8% to US$69.57/bbl.
WTI down 0.9% to US$65.14/bbl.
OPEC+ is expected to approve another production increase of 137,000 bpd at next week’s meeting.
Takeaway: Asian markets remain cautious as U.S. shutdown risks collide with tariff rollouts, but quarterly seasonality and resilient data could cushion equities. Investors now watch Fed commentary and Friday’s inflation data for clearer direction.
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