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The US says the Strait of Hormuz will reopen quickly but global allies are not convinced. That gap in expectations could be a key risk for markets. Key Points US expects Hormuz reopening within days European allies warn it could take  weeks, not days Mine-clearing and security risks remain unresolved Shipping may take  up to 2 weeks to resume meaningfully Full normalisation could take  much longer Disagreements persist on  rules, tolls, and control of the strait Markets may be pricing in a smooth reopening, but reality could be slower and more complex. Why the Delay Matters Reopening Hormuz is not just a political decision, it is an operational challenge: Mines may still be present Ships need  security guarantees Insurance and risk tolerance vary among shippers This means even after a deal is signed,  confidence will take time to return . A Divided Global Response At the G7 level: The US is pushing for a  rapid reopening Europe is demanding  clari...

The US-Iran peace deal has put the spotlight back on one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, the  Strait of Hormuz  with major implications for global markets, inflation, and trade flows. Why the Strait of Hormuz Is So Important The Strait of Hormuz is not just another shipping route: Handles  ~20% of global oil and LNG supply Key exporters: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, Qatar, Iran Majority of shipments  flow to Asia This single chokepoint is the backbone of global energy trade. War Impact: Supply Shock and Price Surge Since the conflict began: Ship traffic plunged from  ~135 to fewer than 10 vessels per day Oil producers were forced to  cut output due to storage constraints Oil prices surged due to  supply disruption fears This triggered  global inflation pressure  and market volatility. What the Peace Deal Changes The interim agreement includes: Ceasefire between US and Iran Plan to  reopen the Strait “immediately” after signi...

Asian markets advanced sharply as  renewed optimism over a US-Iran deal  boosted risk sentiment, driving equities higher while  oil prices fell significantly . Equities Gain as Risk Sentiment Improves The  MSCI Asia-Pacific Index  rose  1.2% , led by strong gains in Japan: Nikkei 225   +3% to record high Broad gains across Asia supported by  lower inflation expectations Meanwhile, US markets remained strong, with  S&P 500  futures rising  0.7% , extending an  eight-week winning streak . Oil Prices Slide on Supply Recovery Hopes Crude oil dropped sharply as prospects improved for reopening the  Strait of Hormuz : Brent crude fell over 4% to ~US$99/barrel Signs of  shipping activity resuming  in the region Lower oil prices are easing concerns over  energy-driven inflation , a key overhang for global markets. Dollar Weakens, Gold Gains The  US dollar declined  against major peers, reflecting a shi...

Oil prices eased modestly on Tuesday after recent sharp gains, as signs emerged that the US is  loosening Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz , offering limited relief to global supply concerns. Oil Prices Slip After Strong Rally Crude benchmarks declined following a surge in the previous session: Brent crude  fell  1.1% to ~US$113/barrel WTI crude  dropped  1.9% to ~US$104/barrel The pullback comes after  multi-day gains driven by supply disruption fears , suggesting short-term  profit-taking  rather than a shift in fundamentals. Limited Progress in Reopening Hormuz The US has begun efforts to restore shipping access: US Navy escorted vessels through the  Strait of Hormuz A Maersk-operated ship successfully exited the Gulf However, analysts stress this remains: A  one-off development , not a full reopening Insufficient to eliminate broader supply risks The Strait typically carries  ~20% of global oil supply , making it a criti...

Global markets turned risk-off on Monday as  renewed US-Iran tensions  shattered last week’s optimism, sending  oil prices sharply higher  and  US equity futures lower . Risk Sentiment Deteriorates After Weekend Escalation Futures tied to the  S&P 500  dropped  nearly 1% , reversing momentum after the index closed at a record high last week. The shift comes after: Iran signaled it may  skip upcoming peace talks The US maintained its  naval blockade around the Strait of Hormuz Escalating rhetoric between both sides raised fears of  prolonged conflict This highlights how recent market gains were largely driven by  optimism rather than concrete progress . Oil Prices Spike as Supply Risks Intensify Crude markets reacted sharply to the renewed tensions: Brent crude surged more than 7% The escalation threatens  global energy supply routes , particularly the  Strait of Hormuz , a critical oil transit chokepoint. Analysts...

Global markets shifted back into  risk-off mode  after US-Iran peace talks ended without a deal, reigniting concerns over  energy supply disruptions and inflation risks . Oil Spikes as Supply Risks Intensify Brent crude surged 8% to above US$103 per barrel , reversing recent declines as the collapse in negotiations raised fears of prolonged disruption. The US move to  block Iranian ports and restrict flows through the Strait of Hormuz  — a critical global energy chokepoint — has heightened concerns over supply. Analysts warn that up to  2 million barrels of Iranian-linked oil flows  could be affected, with further risks if military tensions escalate. Dollar Strengthens, Risk Assets Retreat The US dollar strengthened broadly, reflecting safe-haven demand: Euro fell ~0.5% to US$1.1672 Yen weakened to ~159.78 per dollar Risk-sensitive currencies like the  Australian dollar and sterling declined Meanwhile,  S&P 500 futures dropped 1% , signal...

Oil prices rebounded sharply after suffering their  largest one-day decline since 2020 , as ongoing disruptions in the  Strait of Hormuz  and fragile ceasefire conditions kept supply concerns elevated. Oil Prices Bounce Back Amid Supply Uncertainty Brent crude climbed above US$97 per barrel , while  WTI rose near US$98 , recovering part of Wednesday’s steep  13% selloff . The rebound reflects continued uncertainty over whether  global energy flows can normalise , as conflicting reports emerge on the status of tanker movements through the Strait. While Iran signaled that  shipping had halted , US officials indicated  early signs of reopening , leaving markets caught between optimism and risk. Hormuz Disruption Remains Critical Risk The  Strait of Hormuz , which accounts for roughly  20% of global oil and LNG flows , remains the key pressure point. Even if transit resumes, supply recovery is expected to be gradual due to: Reduced output at...

A temporary ceasefire in the Middle East has failed to restore normal shipping conditions in the  Strait of Hormuz , as Iran continues to exert control through a de facto  “toll system” , keeping global energy markets under pressure. Strait Control Maintains Supply Risk According to reports, Iran has implemented a  politically driven access system  in the Strait: Iran-linked shipments:  Allowed free passage Friendly nations:  Charged fees exceeding  US$1 million per vessel Unfriendly nations:  Potentially blocked The policy effectively turns the Strait into a  strategic chokepoint , reinforcing uncertainty over global oil and gas flows. The arrangement remains in place despite the ceasefire agreement announced by  Donald Trump . Ceasefire Fails to Normalize Energy Flows While the US-Iran truce was expected to ease tensions,  shipping activity remains limited : Many vessels are  avoiding the Strait entirely Others are  forc...

Oil markets are expected to remain elevated despite a temporary ceasefire in the Middle East, as  structural supply disruptions continue to constrain global energy flows . Supply Damage Keeps Oil Prices Elevated According to UOB Global Economics and Markets Research,  Brent crude is likely to hover around US$100 per barrel in the near term , even after a  two-week ceasefire . The reason:  extensive damage to energy infrastructure  across the region. Key assets including  refineries, pipelines, and ports  have been impacted Repairs could take  months or even years Supply chains remain  severely disrupted Brent previously surged to  US$119.50 in late March , before easing to around  US$93.69  following ceasefire news. Strait of Hormuz Bottleneck Persists The  Strait of Hormuz , which handles roughly  20% of global oil and LNG flows , remains a major constraint. Hundreds of  oil tankers are stranded  on both si...

US equities staged a strong rebound at the end of March, driven by  falling oil prices and growing optimism that the Middle East conflict may be nearing an end . Stocks Surge as Risk Sentiment Improves The  S&P 500 Index  jumped  2.9% , while the  Nasdaq Composite Index  surged  3.8% , marking the  largest rally since May . The rebound reflects a shift in sentiment after weeks of volatility, as investors begin to price in a  potential diplomatic resolution  to the conflict. Cyclical sectors led gains: Airline stocks rallied sharply , benefiting from lower fuel costs Energy stocks declined , tracking the pullback in oil prices Oil Falls, Easing Inflation Concerns Oil prices retreated from recent highs, with  US crude falling to around US$101 per barrel , helping ease fears of prolonged inflation pressure. The decline extended gains in  Treasuries , while the  US dollar weakened  and  gold prices rose , indicat...

The ongoing Middle East conflict is not just an oil story — it is triggering a  structural shift in global energy investment , with capital rotating toward  energy security-driven sectors . Energy Crisis Exposes Structural Weakness The disruption of the  Strait of Hormuz (≈20% of global oil flows)  has reinforced a critical reality: energy dependence = geopolitical risk . As highlighted in the report  , governments are no longer optimising for cost, they are prioritising  energy independence and supply resilience . This marks a shift from  “energy economics” to “energy security” , fundamentally changing investment flows. Clean Energy Becomes Strategic, Not Optional Rising oil prices and supply uncertainty have flipped the equation: Expensive oil →  renewables become economically viable faster Supply risk →  policy acceleration toward domestic energy sources This mirrors the  post-Ukraine war shift in 2022 , but on a broader scale. Key Se...

The United Arab Emirates is stepping up efforts to restore global energy flows, signalling willingness to join a  multinational maritime force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz , as geopolitical tensions continue to disrupt supply. Strategic Move to Secure Critical Oil Route The UAE is advocating for a  “Hormuz Security Force” , aimed at: Escorting commercial vessels Protecting shipping from  Iranian attacks Restoring access to a route handling  ~20% of global oil and LNG flows The proposal highlights growing urgency among regional players to  stabilise energy markets and trade routes . Limited Global Support So Far Despite the initiative, several US allies have been  reluctant to commit military resources , reflecting: Concerns over  escalation risks Uncertainty surrounding the  ongoing conflict France has engaged with about  35 countries  on potential cooperation, but any coordinated action may depend on  an eventual ceasefire . UN R...

The ongoing Iran conflict is emerging as one of the  most significant energy shocks in decades , with disruptions to oil supply, rising prices, and market volatility drawing comparisons to past crises such as the  Gulf War (1990)  and the  Russia-Ukraine war (2022) . Supply Disruption Hits Unprecedented Levels The  Strait of Hormuz , a key route for roughly  20% of global oil supply , has seen traffic reduced to a trickle. Analysts estimate that  over 10 million barrels per day of supply are disrupted , marking one of the  largest physical supply shocks in recent history . Unlike previous crises, major producers have  limited spare capacity , making it harder to offset disruptions. Oil Prices Surge in Line with Past Crises Oil prices have surged sharply: Up ~80% year-to-date Comparable to spikes seen during the  1990 Gulf War While earlier shocks, such as in 2022, saw less actual supply disruption, the current situation involves  di...