MONEY MASTER

Markets opened the week in full risk-off mode as escalating military conflict in the Middle East sent oil sharply higher and equities lower. Brent crude surged 7.5% to US$78.34 per barrel, while US crude climbed 7.3% to US$71.88. Gold jumped 1.5% as investors sought safe havens. Strait of Hormuz in Focus Roughly 20% of global seaborne oil and LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz. While the waterway has not been officially closed, tanker traffic has effectively stalled amid security and insurance concerns. Analysts estimate up to 15 million barrels per day of crude supply could be disrupted. According to Rystad Energy, unless de-escalation emerges quickly, oil may undergo a “significant upward repricing.” Money Master Take This is no longer a headline shock. It is an oil supply risk scenario. 1. Oil Shock Is the Primary Macro Transmission Channel Higher crude prices function as: A tax on global growth An inflationary impulse A margin squeeze for energy-importing economies If Brent sus...

Asian equities steadied on Wednesday, tracking an overnight recovery on Wall Street as a sharp selloff in global bonds and cryptocurrencies took a breather. The calmer tone helped lift risk appetite across the region. Bitcoin reclaimed the  US$90,000  level, while futures for both the  Nasdaq  and  S&P 500  edged up  0.1% . MSCI’s broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan rose  0.3% , and Japan’s  Nikkei  advanced  0.8% . Global Market Turbulence Eases Markets bounced back after a rocky start to the week triggered by renewed expectations of a  Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike , which sent global bonds tumbling and deepened the slide in digital assets. “The moves in spreads and the yen likely reignited fears around carry trades and forced unwinding of leveraged positions,” said Kerry Craig, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. He added that while crypto prices have often been used as a proxy for risk sentiment...

Europe’s top bank resolution official is seeking clarity from the United States to ensure that  US regulators will not obstruct write-downs of Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds  during future bank failures, a crucial mechanism used to safeguard financial stability. Background: Lessons from Credit Suisse Dominique Laboureix, chair of the  Single Resolution Board (SRB) , said in an interview that the issue has been raised at the  Financial Stability Board (FSB) , where a working group is “seriously” addressing potential cross-border obstacles. The move follows lingering uncertainty since the  2023 collapse of Credit Suisse , where  AT1 bondholders were fully wiped out  to facilitate the bank’s rescue. With the  Trump administration’s reorientation of US regulatory priorities , European officials are now seeking renewed assurance that Washington will continue to uphold global resolution standards. “You cannot achieve 100% comfort all around the globe wit...

Shutdown Deadline Approaches Asian shares opened cautiously on Monday as investors weighed the risk of a potential  U.S. government shutdown . Without a funding deal, the shutdown could begin  Wednesday , coinciding with the rollout of new U.S. tariffs on  heavy trucks, pharmaceuticals, and other products . President Donald Trump is set to meet congressional leaders later Monday in an effort to secure an extension. Analysts warn that a prolonged closure would delay critical economic data releases — including the September  payrolls report  — leaving the  Federal Reserve (Fed)  with less visibility ahead of its  Oct 29 meeting . Fed Implications Bank of America (BofA)  analysts noted that if the shutdown extends beyond October, the Fed would have to rely more on private-sector data. Markets currently price in a  90% chance of a Fed rate cut in October  and a  65% probability of another in December . Economic growth impact is est...

  Key Takeaway Asian markets tracked Wall Street higher on Friday as investors grew more confident the Federal Reserve will cut rates on Sept 17. Treasury yields slipped to multi-month lows, while traders braced for the U.S. August non-farm payrolls report later in the day. Market Highlights Wall Street:  S&P 500 closed +0.8% at a record high; Nasdaq gained 1%. Futures point to more modest gains. Asia: Japan’s  Nikkei +0.8% , nearing record highs Taiwan benchmark +0.8% Hong Kong Hang Seng +0.4% China blue chips +0.4% Australia +0.3% Bonds & Rates U.S. Treasury yields eased to four-month lows: 10-year:  4.15% 2-year:  3.58% 30-year:  4.84% Japanese 30-year JGB:  3.235% , retreating from record high. Fed funds futures: Markets price in  25 bps cut in September  and ~60 bps of easing by year-end. Currencies & Commodities Dollar Index:  Down 0.1% to 98.095; still up 0.3% for the week. Gold:  Steady at  US$3,552/oz , off...

Key Takeaway Megacap tech stocks powered Wall Street higher Wednesday, with  Alphabet (+9.1%)  and  Apple (+3.8%)  driving the Nasdaq to a  1% gain . The S&P 500 rose  0.5% , while the Dow ended flat as energy shares slumped. Bond yields eased after briefly spiking above 5%, giving equities a lift. Market Snapshot (Sept 3 Close) Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) : +1.02% S&P 500 (.SPX) : +0.51% Dow Jones (.DJI) : –0.1% Alphabet (GOOG) : +9.01% |  Apple (AAPL) : +3.81% | Dell: higher Energy Sector : –2.3%, worst performer in S&P 500 WTI Crude : –2.5% to US$63.97/bbl Gold Futures : Record close at US$3,593.20/oz 30Y Treasury Yield : Pulled back after topping 5% intraday Key Drivers Tech Boost : Alphabet avoided major antitrust penalties, keeping Chrome and Apple partnership. Apple gained on AI search plans. Bond Relief : Yields retreated after U.S. data showed higher layoffs and Fed officials flagged “downside risks” to jobs. Energy Drag : Oil stocks ...

Key Takeaway Weak U.S. labor data pushed traders to almost fully price in a  September Fed rate cut , sending Treasuries and tech stocks higher. Markets now anticipate at least  two cuts in 2025 , with Friday’s payrolls report as the next key test. Market Snapshot S&P 500 : +0.5% to 6,438.26 Nasdaq Composite : +1% to 21,497.73 Dow Jones : –0.1% to 45,271.23 30Y Treasury Yield : Near 5% before rebounding USD : Weaker; Dollar Index fell Gold : Record US$3,640.10 (+1.3%) on rate cut bets Key Drivers JOLTS Report : Job openings fell to 10-month low, signaling softer labor demand. Fed Expectations : Traders now see 95%+ chance of a 25bps cut in September; at least two cuts priced in for 2025. Tech Rally : Alphabet hit record high (Google Chrome ruling). Apple advanced on AI-powered Siri search plans. Corporate Moves : Salesforce warned on weaker sales growth after hours. Fed & Analyst Commentary Fed Governor Waller : Supports starting cuts in September, with debate over pac...

Key Takeaway China’s regulators are weighing measures to rein in speculative trading after a  US$1.2 trillion rally  since August. The aim: avoid a repeat of the 2015 boom-and-bust while fostering steadier gains to support the economy. Proposed Measures (Under Discussion) Possible removal of certain  short-selling curbs . Tighter  monitoring of credit funds  used for stock purchases. Limits on  brokerage marketing  of round-the-clock account openings. Warnings to  social media platforms  to reduce bullish hype and illegal stock tips. Suspension of  abnormally volatile stocks  (e.g., Ningbo TIP Rubber halted). Margin trading restrictions : Some brokers (e.g., Sinolink Securities) raised deposit ratios to curb leverage. Market Backdrop Rally Context : Major indexes have surged >20% since April, led by chip and AI-related stocks. Shanghai Composite : Decade high; CSI 300 also up >20% from YTD low. Volume Surge : Trading volumes h...

  Key Takeaways • 30-year JGB yield jumped to a record 3.28% as global long-dated bonds sold off. • US 30-year Treasury yield rose to 4.98%, near July highs, while 10-year Treasury at 4.28%. • Concerns over widening government deficits and heavy bond issuance fueling yield surge. • Gold spiked to a new all-time high of US$3,546.99 as investors sought safe havens. • Focus shifts to US nonfarm payrolls, Fed rate decision, and European services PMI. Bonds • Japan: 30-year JGB yield +8bps to 3.28%, record high, ahead of Thursday’s debt auction. • US: 10-year Treasury yield at 4.281%, 30-year near 5%, tracking deficit fears and issuance pressures. • UK: 30-year gilt yield hit highest since 1998 after debt sale; 10-year yield peaked at 17-year high. Equities • Asia: MSCI Asia ex-Japan +0.1%; Nikkei –0.5% on tech weakness. • Australia: S&P/ASX 200 –0.9% after soft Q2 GDP data. • Futures: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.6%, DAX +0.5%, FTSE +0.3%, S&P 500 e-minis +0.1%. Currencies • USD/JPY +0.3% ...

  Key Points French government bonds are attracting  dip buyers  after yields spiked on renewed political uncertainty. The  10-year OAT yield  touched 3.55% this week, the highest since March, narrowing the gap with Italian bonds. The  spread vs. German Bunds  briefly widened to 82 bps before easing back to ~79 bps. Amundi CIO Vincent Mortier says spreads are now at levels that “attract marginal buyers,” helping to stabilize the market. Market Context The volatility was triggered by Prime Minister Francois Bayrou’s surprise call for a  confidence vote on Sept. 8 , forcing him to seek either far-right abstentions or a highly unlikely alignment of leftist lawmakers. Political instability has weighed heavily on French assets since last June’s snap elections produced a hung parliament. Bonds:  Investors are reassessing valuations, with yields now at attractive entry points. Equities:  The  CAC 40 Index has fallen 3.6%  over the pas...

  Key Forecasts Policy Rate : Riksbank expected to  cut 50bps this year to 1.5% by November  (vs. previous forecast of 1.75%). Growth Outlook : 2025 GDP revised down to  1.0%  (from 1.5% prior). Growth seen accelerating to  2.3% in 2026 , easing to  2.2% in 2027 . Unemployment : Projected to decline gradually from  8.7% (2025)  →  7.9% (2027) . Macro Context Exports hit : US tariff hikes weighing on Swedish exporters like  Volvo Cars , delaying recovery momentum. Riksbank signal : Central bank has already hinted a cut from the current  2.0% rate  before year-end remains “on the table.” Policy support needed : Swedbank stresses that stable growth requires both monetary and fiscal stimulus. Rate Path Outlook 2025 : Cut to  1.5% by Nov . 2026 : Rate held steady at  1.5% . 2027 : Modest hike back to  1.75%  as economy stabilizes. Investor Takeaway Bonds : Lower rate path supportive for Swedish fixed income,...

 Market Context Japan’s  20-year government bond auction on Tuesday  is in sharp focus as investors weigh the risk of  rising fiscal spending  and reduced central bank support. The ruling coalition’s  loss of its upper house majority  has raised speculation of fiscal expansion and a potential leadership race. The  Bank of Japan  is gradually scaling back its massive JGB purchases, leaving a  demand gap  in the market. Global backdrop: super-long debt under pressure worldwide.  German 30-year yields  hit a 14-year high last week. Why the 20-Year Maturity Matters Yields on Japan’s 20-year bonds remain near last month’s  highest levels since 1999 , despite a slight easing. Strategists note it’s a  “tricky tenor” : neither a benchmark like the 10-year nor an ultra-long like the 30- or 40-year. Investors in the  past seven auctions are underwater  on a mark-to-market basis. Auction Dynamics Bid-to-cover rati...

The U.S. equity rally took a breather on Tuesday, as profit-taking in tech stocks and renewed fiscal policy concerns weighed on sentiment. Meanwhile, Malaysia’s KLCI edged higher, driven by sectoral rotation into property and construction amid local macro tailwinds. U.S. Markets: Tech Weakness Meets Legislative Surprise U.S. stocks delivered a mixed performance, with the  S&P 500  (-0.11%) and  Nasdaq Composite  (-0.82%) both retreating from recent highs, primarily due to weakness in large-cap tech, including Tesla. In contrast, the  Dow Jones  rose +0.91% as investors rotated into industrials, materials, and financials — a move tied closely to expectations of increased fiscal spending. This rotation came after the  U.S. Senate passed President Trump’s controversial tax-and-spending bill , a sweeping $3.3 trillion package that includes significant  tax cuts ,  increased military spending , and  deep cuts to healthcare and food aid . ...

  Growth Overview : Malaysia's capital market saw a  9.7% growth  in 2024, reaching  RM4.2 trillion  from  RM3.8 trillion  in 2023. This growth was driven by: Strong local buying interest A series of  initial public offerings (IPOs) Growth in the bond and sukuk market Bursa Malaysia Performance : Market capitalisation  of  Bursa Malaysia  rose to  RM2.1 trillion  in 2024, up from  RM1.8 trillion  in 2023. The market capitalisation of  FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI components  grew to  RM1.2 trillion  from  RM1.0 trillion  in the previous year. Fund Management Growth : Total assets under management (AUM)  reached a record  RM1.1 trillion , up from  RM975.5 billion  in 2023. The  unit trust segment  remains the largest source of funds, accounting for  51.1%  of total AUM. Capital Raised : Total funds raised in the capital market increased to  RM1...

Key Takeaway: Asian stocks face pressure as doubts about Federal Reserve easing persist , fueled by concerns over inflation risks from Trump’s fiscal and trade policies. Most Asian markets are poised for a soft opening on Monday, with futures in Australia, Japan, and mainland China pointing to losses , while Hong Kong shows marginal gains. This follows a 1.3% drop in US stocks on Friday , which erased more than half of their post-election rally. Inflation Fears and Fed Policy: Investors are grappling with the possibility that Trump’s tariffs and tax cuts could reignite inflation , complicating the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle. Odds of a December rate cut are now less than 50%, with analysts predicting a slower pace of easing in 2025 . Shane Oliver, AMP Ltd’s chief economist, noted, “Trump’s policies pose upside risks to inflation over the next 1-3 years, making additional Fed cuts uncertain.” Asian Market Snapshot: Japan: Traders will monitor a speech by BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda ...

Asian stocks and bonds are expected to rise on Friday following a cross-asset rally in the US, spurred by the Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate cut. Australian stocks and futures for Japan and Hong Kong advanced, and the Golden Dragon index of US-listed Chinese firms gained 3.5%. The Fed’s decision pushed Treasury yields lower, with the 10-year yield falling by 11 basis points, as investors recalibrated their expectations on inflation under the new Trump administration. Australian and New Zealand yields also dropped in response. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the strength of the US economy, stating that election outcomes won’t impact near-term Fed policy. He left open the possibility of another rate cut in December, contributing to the dollar’s worst performance since August as it weakened against major currencies. Market attention is now on China, where a legislative meeting could yield new stimulus measures to counter potential tariff threats following Trump’s ele...

Asian stocks made modest gains following mixed earnings from Wall Street tech companies, as traders brace for next week's US election and the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. Japan's stocks rose, while Australia and South Korea saw slight declines. US stock futures showed gains after the S&P 500 closed up by 0.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite hit a record high. Despite Alphabet Inc. climbing over 5% after beating earnings expectations, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. dropped 7% due to a weak revenue forecast. Treasury yields edged lower, and the US dollar slipped after three days of gains. Gold hit a fresh record, and Bitcoin remained near its all-time high. Traders in Asia are preparing for key market moves following the Bank of Japan's decision on Thursday and a potential fiscal stimulus announcement from China at a top legislative meeting on November 4-8. Asia's regional equity benchmark is set for its worst monthly performance in a year. Investors are a...