MONEY MASTER

Fresh US military strikes on Iran have  re-escalated geopolitical tensions , underscoring the fragility of the ceasefire and raising concerns over  global energy supply disruptions , particularly in the critical Strait of Hormuz. US Conducts “Defensive” Strikes Amid Rising Tensions The US military targeted Iranian drone operations, including: Destruction of a drone control station in Bandar Abbas Interception of  four attack drones Officials described the actions as  measured and defensive , aimed at  maintaining the ceasefire , though Iran labelled earlier strikes a violation. Strait of Hormuz Remains a Key Flashpoint The situation around the  Strait of Hormuz  remains highly unstable: Iranian forces reportedly  warned off commercial vessels Traffic through the strait remains  significantly reduced Pre-war flow:  125–140 ships daily , now sharply lower The waterway handles roughly  20% of global oil and LNG flows , making it centra...

Oil prices eased modestly on Tuesday after recent sharp gains, as signs emerged that the US is  loosening Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz , offering limited relief to global supply concerns. Oil Prices Slip After Strong Rally Crude benchmarks declined following a surge in the previous session: Brent crude  fell  1.1% to ~US$113/barrel WTI crude  dropped  1.9% to ~US$104/barrel The pullback comes after  multi-day gains driven by supply disruption fears , suggesting short-term  profit-taking  rather than a shift in fundamentals. Limited Progress in Reopening Hormuz The US has begun efforts to restore shipping access: US Navy escorted vessels through the  Strait of Hormuz A Maersk-operated ship successfully exited the Gulf However, analysts stress this remains: A  one-off development , not a full reopening Insufficient to eliminate broader supply risks The Strait typically carries  ~20% of global oil supply , making it a criti...

US markets are set for a weaker open as  geopolitical tensions escalate sharply , following the US decision to impose a  naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz , a key global energy artery. Futures Drop as Risk Sentiment Deteriorates US stock futures declined in early trading: Dow Jones Industrial Average  futures  -0.9% S&P 500 Index  futures  -0.9% Invesco QQQ Trust futures  -1.1% The pullback follows a  strong rally last week , as investors now reassess risks tied to the Middle East conflict. Oil Prices Surge on Supply Disruption Fears Energy markets reacted sharply to the blockade announcement: US crude surged ~8% to US$104.40 per barrel Brent crude rose ~7% to US$102.51 The Strait of Hormuz is a  critical chokepoint , handling roughly  20% of global oil flows , making any disruption a major driver of prices. Blockade Escalates Geopolitical Tensions Donald Trump  confirmed that the US Navy will  blockade all vessels ent...

Global markets shifted back into  risk-off mode  after US-Iran peace talks ended without a deal, reigniting concerns over  energy supply disruptions and inflation risks . Oil Spikes as Supply Risks Intensify Brent crude surged 8% to above US$103 per barrel , reversing recent declines as the collapse in negotiations raised fears of prolonged disruption. The US move to  block Iranian ports and restrict flows through the Strait of Hormuz  — a critical global energy chokepoint — has heightened concerns over supply. Analysts warn that up to  2 million barrels of Iranian-linked oil flows  could be affected, with further risks if military tensions escalate. Dollar Strengthens, Risk Assets Retreat The US dollar strengthened broadly, reflecting safe-haven demand: Euro fell ~0.5% to US$1.1672 Yen weakened to ~159.78 per dollar Risk-sensitive currencies like the  Australian dollar and sterling declined Meanwhile,  S&P 500 futures dropped 1% , signal...

Global markets closed March on a volatile note as the Iran conflict triggered a  historic surge in oil prices , fuelling inflation fears and driving a broad  risk-off selloff across equities and bonds . Oil Prices Post Record Monthly Surge Brent crude is on track for a  ~59% monthly gain , the largest on record, trading near  US$115 per barrel . US crude rose  ~56% for the month Supply disruptions tied to the  Strait of Hormuz  continue to tighten markets The sharp rise in energy prices has intensified concerns over  persistent inflation and economic slowdown . Asian Stocks Hit Hardest Since 2022 Equities across Asia have suffered steep losses: MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan down >12% for March Japan’s Nikkei set to fall  12.6% South Korea’s Kospi plunging  >17% , worst since 2008 The region’s heavy reliance on  Middle East energy imports  has amplified downside risks. Inflation Fears Reshape Rate Expectations The oil shock h...

Euro  is on track for its  worst quarterly performance since 2024 , as rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions expose Europe’s  structural vulnerability to energy imports . Currency Weakness Accelerates on Oil Shock The euro has declined: ~2% this quarter ~2.5% in March , the steepest monthly drop since July It now trades near  US$1.15 , reversing sharply from levels above  US$1.20 earlier this year . Analysts warn the currency could weaken further toward  US$1.13  in the near term. Energy Dependence Weighs on Europe The selloff reflects Europe’s heavy reliance on imported energy: Oil prices have surged  above US$115 per barrel The  Strait of Hormuz disruption  is tightening supply Unlike the US, which benefits as a  net energy producer , Europe faces: Higher inflation Weaker economic growth Policy Outlook Turns Hawkish — But Growth Risks Persist Markets are now pricing: Three interest rate hikes in 2026 A sharp reversal from ex...

The United Arab Emirates is stepping up efforts to restore global energy flows, signalling willingness to join a  multinational maritime force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz , as geopolitical tensions continue to disrupt supply. Strategic Move to Secure Critical Oil Route The UAE is advocating for a  “Hormuz Security Force” , aimed at: Escorting commercial vessels Protecting shipping from  Iranian attacks Restoring access to a route handling  ~20% of global oil and LNG flows The proposal highlights growing urgency among regional players to  stabilise energy markets and trade routes . Limited Global Support So Far Despite the initiative, several US allies have been  reluctant to commit military resources , reflecting: Concerns over  escalation risks Uncertainty surrounding the  ongoing conflict France has engaged with about  35 countries  on potential cooperation, but any coordinated action may depend on  an eventual ceasefire . UN R...

The ongoing Iran conflict is emerging as one of the  most significant energy shocks in decades , with disruptions to oil supply, rising prices, and market volatility drawing comparisons to past crises such as the  Gulf War (1990)  and the  Russia-Ukraine war (2022) . Supply Disruption Hits Unprecedented Levels The  Strait of Hormuz , a key route for roughly  20% of global oil supply , has seen traffic reduced to a trickle. Analysts estimate that  over 10 million barrels per day of supply are disrupted , marking one of the  largest physical supply shocks in recent history . Unlike previous crises, major producers have  limited spare capacity , making it harder to offset disruptions. Oil Prices Surge in Line with Past Crises Oil prices have surged sharply: Up ~80% year-to-date Comparable to spikes seen during the  1990 Gulf War While earlier shocks, such as in 2022, saw less actual supply disruption, the current situation involves  di...

Oil prices extended their rally, climbing to the  highest levels since 2022 , as escalating geopolitical tensions and a  US ultimatum over the Strait of Hormuz  heightened fears of a prolonged global energy disruption. Oil Prices Spike Amid Escalation Risk Global benchmark oil surged: Brent crude rose above US$113 per barrel , marking a  fifth consecutive day of gains WTI crude approached US$100 per barrel Since the conflict began in late February,  Brent has rallied over 50% , reflecting severe concerns over  energy supply disruptions . Strait of Hormuz Crisis at the Core The latest surge follows a  48-hour ultimatum by US President Donald Trump , demanding Iran reopen the  Strait of Hormuz , a critical route for  ~20% of global oil supply . Iran has responded with threats to: Fully close the waterway Target  energy, infrastructure, and regional assets With maritime traffic largely halted, oil producers in the Gulf are being forced to...

Emerging Asian markets came under heavy pressure on Monday as  persistent Middle East tensions kept oil prices elevated , driving risk aversion and accelerating capital outflows across the region. Broad Selloff Across Emerging Asia The  MSCI Emerging Asia Index fell 3% , extending its March decline to  over 11% , putting it on track for its  worst monthly performance since 2022 . Key markets led the downturn: South Korea’s Kospi plunged up to 6.4% Taiwan equities dropped as much as 3.2% Singapore and Philippines markets fell 2%–3% The selloff reflects mounting concerns over  prolonged geopolitical risks and inflation pressures . Oil Above US$110 Fuels Risk Aversion Oil prices remained  above US$110 per barrel , reinforcing fears of: Imported inflation across Asia Higher production and transport costs Slower economic growth While some Iranian supply may return to markets, investors remain focused on the  risk of further disruptions to energy infrastruct...

A strike on Iran’s  South Pars gas field  has marked a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict, raising concerns over  global energy security  and intensifying geopolitical risks across markets. Energy Infrastructure Targeted for the First Time The attack hit  Iran’s portion of the world’s largest natural gas field , shared with Qatar, damaging  gas tanks and refinery facilities . This represents the  first direct strike on major energy infrastructure in the Gulf  during the conflict, a move widely seen as a turning point. Iran responded by warning neighbouring countries — including  Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar  — to  evacuate key energy installations , signalling the potential for broader regional disruption. Escalation Raises Stakes for Global Energy Supply The development significantly increases the risk of  supply shocks in global energy markets , as the Gulf region accounts for a large share of global oil and g...

The  surge  in  oil  prices  triggered  by  the  US- Israel  war  with  Iran  may  not  fade  quickly —  even  after  the  fighting  stops.  Damage  to  global  supply  chains  and  energy  infrastructure  could  keep  gasoline  prices  elevated  across  America  for  months. Oil  Near $100  Means  Higher  Gasoline  Costs Crude oil   has  hovered  near  US$100  per  barrel ,  pushing  US  gasoline  prices  sharply  higher. A  common  rule  of  thumb: Every  US$10  rise  in  oil Adds  roughly  20  cents  per  gallon   to  US  gas  prices Higher  gasoline  prices  ripple  through  the  broader  economy: Tr...