MONEY MASTER

The White House said Wednesday that the October US jobs report and consumer price index are unlikely to be released, marking an unprecedented disruption to America’s economic data system as the government shutdown continues. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed that key statistical agencies — including the Bureau of Labor Statistics — halted data collection and publication when the shutdown began, leaving policymakers without crucial indicators needed to assess the economy’s momentum. While some datasets could be reconstructed retroactively, economists have cautioned that the CPI and unemployment rate are among the releases most at risk of being skipped entirely. The BLS has not issued an updated calendar or indicated whether missing releases might be combined into future reports. In previous shutdowns, the agency has restored operations quickly, but officials now face the challenge of incomplete surveys that cannot be reproduced after the fact. Leavitt said Democrats “may have p...

The  Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)  appears  hesitant to lower interest rates further , according to minutes from its September policy meeting. The central bank remains  cautious on inflation risks , suggesting that  a November rate cut is unlikely  unless upcoming quarterly CPI data show a clear and sustained slowdown. The RBA, which has already delivered  three rate reductions this year , indicated growing confidence that its current stance is  sufficient to support the economy  while keeping inflation expectations anchored.

  Key Takeaway Asian markets tracked Wall Street higher on Friday as investors grew more confident the Federal Reserve will cut rates on Sept 17. Treasury yields slipped to multi-month lows, while traders braced for the U.S. August non-farm payrolls report later in the day. Market Highlights Wall Street:  S&P 500 closed +0.8% at a record high; Nasdaq gained 1%. Futures point to more modest gains. Asia: Japan’s  Nikkei +0.8% , nearing record highs Taiwan benchmark +0.8% Hong Kong Hang Seng +0.4% China blue chips +0.4% Australia +0.3% Bonds & Rates U.S. Treasury yields eased to four-month lows: 10-year:  4.15% 2-year:  3.58% 30-year:  4.84% Japanese 30-year JGB:  3.235% , retreating from record high. Fed funds futures: Markets price in  25 bps cut in September  and ~60 bps of easing by year-end. Currencies & Commodities Dollar Index:  Down 0.1% to 98.095; still up 0.3% for the week. Gold:  Steady at  US$3,552/oz , off...

Stocks flat, yields hold firm after poor 30-year auction; Intel slides, Apple extends rebound Wall Street took a breather Thursday after a blistering rally that pushed U.S. equities close to record highs. The  S&P 500 ended flat , as  a weak US$25B 30-year bond auction  dimmed risk appetite and sent  yields edging higher . S&P 500 : Flat 30-year Treasury yield : 4.83% (unchanged) 10-year yield : Up 2bps to 4.25% USD Index : Steady Chips Up, But Intel Down Chipmakers gained overall, but  Intel fell 3%  after Trump called for its CEO’s resignation over China-linked conflicts. Meanwhile,  Apple rose for a third session , extending its rebound to +8.5%. Earnings Movers Eli Lilly  plunged 14% after lackluster weight-loss pill data Apple  (+3.18%) continued to rally on U.S. manufacturing plans ConocoPhillips  reported a mixed quarter amid steady oil Market Risks Rising: Analysts Flag Overbought Conditions With the  S&P 500 up ...

The  Bank of England (BOE)  is widely expected to cut its benchmark rate by  25 basis points to 4%  this Thursday, maintaining its gradual once-a-quarter easing cycle despite facing the  fastest inflation in 17 months . The move highlights policymakers’ growing concerns over economic growth and rising unemployment amid tax hikes and weaker consumer demand. Growth Concerns Trump Inflation Worries Back-to-back GDP contractions and mounting job losses have pushed the BOE to prioritize growth over price pressures. Employers are scaling back hiring following a  £26 billion payroll tax increase  and a sharp hike in the minimum wage under the Labour government’s first budget. Net Interest Margin Outlook:  BOE to stick with a cautious tone amid upside inflation surprises. GDP Impact:  Weaker consumer spending and business investment underpin the dovish stance. Bailey Signals Temporary Price Pressures Governor  Andrew Bailey  has guided mark...

  China is fueling optimism for further economic stimulus after the People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut a key short-term policy rate and announced a rare briefing by top financial regulators. The central bank reduced the 14-day reverse repurchase rate by 10 basis points to 1.85%, signaling the potential for additional monetary easing as authorities work to revive economic growth. The briefing, scheduled for tomorrow, will feature PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng and two other senior officials discussing financial support for economic development. This comes amid concerns that China may miss its annual growth target of around 5% without further intervention, especially following a string of disappointing economic data in August. The moves have heightened expectations for the PBOC to cut rates further, especially after the US Federal Reserve initiated rate cuts last week. The yield on China’s 10-year government bonds dropped to a fresh low of 2.03%, and the PBOC raised its daily ref...

Asian shares advanced on Wednesday, while the New Zealand dollar tumbled after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.25%, signaling more easing ahead. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar faced losses as soft U.S. producer price data raised hopes for tame consumer inflation, pushing bond yields lower. Key Highlights: New Zealand Rate Cut Impact: The kiwi dollar dropped 0.7% following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's rate cut and indication of future easing. This move caught markets off guard, adding pressure to the currency. Japanese Political Shakeup: Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced his intention to step down as the ruling party leader in September, a decision driven by rising prices and political scandals. The yen strengthened slightly to 146.53 per dollar, and Japan’s Nikkei index, which had earlier posted gains, flattened after the news broke. Asian Markets Performance: MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares ...

  The US Treasury has reduced its borrowing estimate for the current quarter and projects a smaller cash buffer by year-end, setting the stage for a potential new debt limit confrontation. The Treasury now estimates $740 billion in net borrowing for July through September, down from the $847 billion forecasted in April. The expected cash balance for the end of September remains at $850 billion. The Treasury also forecasts a year-end cash balance of $700 billion, which will decrease after the debt ceiling reactivates at the start of next year unless Congress takes action. The reduction in borrowing needs is partly due to the Federal Reserve's decision to slow the runoff of its Treasury holdings, reducing the necessity for public debt sales. The Treasury started this quarter with more cash than anticipated. The Treasury's cash balance at the end of June was about $778 billion, above the targeted $750 billion. As of last Thursday, it stood at about $768 billion. Analysts like Zach...