Malaysia’s export growth slowed sharply in August but still managed to stay positive, driven by resilient demand for electrical and electronic (E&E) products.
Market Snapshot
Exports: +1.9% YoY (July: +6.5%), below consensus +3.0%.
Imports: –5.9% YoY (July: +0.6%), steepest drop since Sept 2023.
Trade surplus: RM16.1b (July: RM14.6b), beating forecasts.
Total trade: –1.9% YoY, lowest in 20 months.
Key Drivers
E&E exports: +10.1% (July: +22.5%), making up 42.2% of total exports.
Weak spots: Crude petroleum (–28.8%), petroleum products (–17.6%), LNG (–2.6%).
Bright spots: Palm oil & related products rebounded +9.7%; agriculture overall +4.5%.
Regional flows:
US: –16.7% (sharpest in 20 months, hit by tariffs)
China: +10.4% (supportive)
Singapore: +2.7% (slower)
Taiwan: +32.7% (slowed from prior surge)
Imports Breakdown
Retained imports: –12.4% (2nd straight month of decline).
Intermediate goods: –16.8%
Consumption goods: –8.9%
Capital goods: +11.0% (July: +20.3%)
Outlook
Kenanga IB keeps 2025 export growth forecast at 3.1% (2024: 5.7%).
Drivers: AI, 5G, automation, EV-related demand expected to sustain E&E exports.
Risks: US trade policy, uneven global growth, geopolitical tensions.
GDP outlook: 2025 forecast retained at 4.3% (2024: 5.1%), with growth support from accommodative policy, approved investments, and tourism.
Key Takeaway
Despite slowing export growth, Malaysia’s strong E&E demand and widening trade surplus provide support for the economy. Analysts expect exports to remain resilient in 2025, though external risks could weigh on momentum.
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