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Gold Plunges in Worst Week Since 1983 as War Fuels Rate-Hike Fears

Gold is heading for its  worst weekly performance in over four decades , as escalating Middle East tensions drive  higher oil prices, rising bond yields, and a stronger US dollar , eroding demand for the non-yielding asset. Sharp Selloff Driven by Rate Expectations Gold prices dropped sharply, with bullion falling  over 3% to around US$4,509 per ounce , marking an  eight-day losing streak . The key driver has been a shift in monetary expectations: Markets now see a  50% probability of a rate hike by October Expectations for  rate cuts have diminished significantly Higher interest rates reduce gold’s appeal, as it  does not generate yield , making it less attractive compared to bonds and cash. War Escalation Fuels Inflation and Dollar Strength The ongoing conflict in the Middle East — including potential  US ground troop deployment and increased military presence  — has pushed  energy prices higher , reinforcing inflation risks. As a resu...
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ASEAN Growth Cut as Energy Shock Sparks Stagflation Risks, Inflation Outlook Raised

Maybank Research has downgraded its outlook for Southeast Asia, warning that  rising energy prices and supply disruptions  linked to Middle East tensions are triggering a  stagflationary shock  across the region. Growth Forecasts Lowered Across ASEAN-6 The research house now expects  ASEAN-6 GDP growth at 4.5% in 2026 and 4.7% in 2027 , down from previous forecasts of 4.8%. The biggest downgrades were seen in: Philippines and Vietnam (-0.4ppt) Thailand (-0.3ppt) The revisions reflect the growing impact of  higher energy costs and supply chain disruptions  on economic activity. Inflation Pressures Intensify At the same time, inflation forecasts have been revised upward: 2026 inflation: 2.7% (vs 2.2% previously) 2027 inflation: 2.7% (vs 2.5%) The largest inflation increases are expected in  Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia , driven by higher fuel and commodity prices. Monetary Policy Shift: Easing Cycle Disrupted The energy shock is expected...

New Zealand Outlook Cut to Negative as Rising Debt and Slowing Growth Raise Concerns

New Zealand’s fiscal outlook has come under pressure after Fitch Ratings revised the country’s  credit rating outlook to “negative” , citing challenges in reducing government debt amid a weakening economic backdrop. Debt Concerns Drive Outlook Downgrade While Fitch maintained New Zealand’s  AA+ sovereign rating , it warned that  fiscal consolidation has been delayed , making meaningful debt reduction harder to achieve. Government debt is now projected to rise to  56% of GDP by fiscal 2027 , significantly higher than earlier expectations of around  36% . The agency noted that debt levels have increased sharply over the past six years due to  multiple economic shocks , raising concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability. Growth Slows, Limiting Policy Flexibility Recent economic data shows  growth is weakening , reducing the country’s ability to absorb external shocks. GDP grew just 0.2% in Q4 Prior quarter revised down to  0.9%  (below expec...