MONEY MASTER

Market Snapshot STI:  4,904.33 (+0.24%) Volume / Value:  110.57M / S$109.45M Advancers / Decliners:  103 / 55 Wall Street Mixed Ahead of Fed Decision US markets showed a mixed performance as investors stayed cautious before the upcoming Federal Reserve decision. Nasdaq Composite Index :  +0.2% (record high) S&P 500 Index :  +0.1% (record high) Dow Jones Industrial Average :  -0.1% Key point:   Markets are in a wait-and-see mode , focusing on Fed signals and inflation risks from rising oil prices. AI-related stocks continued to lead gains: Intel  +3% SanDisk  +8.1% Micron Technology  +5.6% Taiwan Semiconductor  +0.6% Singapore Manufacturing Beats Expectations Singapore’s factory sector delivered a strong surprise: March output: +10.1% YoY  (vs forecast) MoM growth: +4.7% Q1 growth: 7.9% YoY (above 5% estimate) Excluding biomedical: +13.5% YoY growth Key point:   Manufacturing rebound is driven by strong electronics dema...

Singapore is increasingly likely to  tighten monetary policy , as rising energy costs from the Middle East conflict threaten to push inflation higher despite weakening growth. MAS Expected to Act Amid Rising Price Pressures The  Monetary Authority of Singapore  is widely expected to adjust policy at its upcoming review, with  15 out of 18 economists forecasting a tightening move . The shift comes as  imported inflation accelerates , driven by surging oil prices and higher logistics costs. Core inflation is projected at  1.9% , near the  upper bound of official forecasts , increasing pressure on policymakers to act. Unique Policy Tool: Currency Management Unlike most central banks, MAS uses the  Singapore dollar exchange rate  as its primary policy tool. Potential tightening measures include: Steepening the slope of the policy band Re-centering the band upward Or a combination of both The Singapore dollar has already been  strengthening t...

Europe’s economy is beginning to show clear signs of strain as the Iran conflict drives  higher energy prices, weaker growth, and rising inflation , threatening to derail the region’s fragile recovery. Growth Outlook Deteriorates Across Europe Governments across Europe are  cutting economic growth forecasts , as the war disrupts energy markets and business sentiment weakens. Major economies like  Germany and Italy  are reassessing projections, while policymakers brace for a  prolonged period of slower expansion .  The shock comes just as the region was recovering from previous crises, raising concerns of a  renewed economic slowdown . Inflation Pressures Resurface The surge in oil and gas prices is expected to  reignite inflation , forcing policymakers into difficult trade-offs. Central banks, including the European Central Bank, may need to: Shift toward  tighter monetary policy Delay or reverse  rate-cut expectations Officials warn the...

Hong Kong is seeing renewed interest from global wealth as the  Middle East conflict reshapes capital flows , prompting ultra-rich investors to reconsider exposure to the Gulf region. War Drives Capital Diversion from the Gulf Rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East have led  family offices and high-net-worth investors to reassess their allocations , with some delaying expansion plans in cities like Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Instead,  Hong Kong is emerging as a key alternative , alongside Singapore and other financial hubs, as investors seek  stability and diversification .  Some wealth managers report clients are already  moving assets out of the Middle East , with over  US$100 million in capital shifting toward Hong Kong . Hong Kong Regains Momentum as Wealth Hub The city is benefiting from renewed investor confidence, supported by: Low tax environment and deep talent pool Strong  IPO pipeline and capital markets activity Policy support, includi...

Oil prices extended their rally, climbing to the  highest levels since 2022 , as escalating geopolitical tensions and a  US ultimatum over the Strait of Hormuz  heightened fears of a prolonged global energy disruption. Oil Prices Spike Amid Escalation Risk Global benchmark oil surged: Brent crude rose above US$113 per barrel , marking a  fifth consecutive day of gains WTI crude approached US$100 per barrel Since the conflict began in late February,  Brent has rallied over 50% , reflecting severe concerns over  energy supply disruptions . Strait of Hormuz Crisis at the Core The latest surge follows a  48-hour ultimatum by US President Donald Trump , demanding Iran reopen the  Strait of Hormuz , a critical route for  ~20% of global oil supply . Iran has responded with threats to: Fully close the waterway Target  energy, infrastructure, and regional assets With maritime traffic largely halted, oil producers in the Gulf are being forced to...

Gold prices plunged sharply,  erasing all year-to-date gains , as escalating Middle East tensions triggered a surge in  inflation expectations and interest rate risks , prompting aggressive selling across precious metals. Gold Sees Fastest Selloff in Decades Gold extended its losses for a  ninth consecutive session , falling as much as  8.8% to near US$4,100 per ounce , before stabilising around  US$4,225 . This dramatic decline follows what was already the  worst weekly drop since 1983 , highlighting the intensity of the current selloff. Inflation Shock Drives Rate-Hike Expectations The key driver behind the decline is a sharp shift in macro expectations: Oil prices remain elevated , fuelling inflation concerns Markets are increasingly pricing in  higher-for-longer interest rates Central banks may  delay or reverse easing cycles Higher interest rates reduce the attractiveness of gold, as it  does not generate yield , pushing investors toward...

Singapore’s inflation eased in February, offering temporary relief before the  Middle East conflict triggered a surge in energy prices , which is expected to reshape the near-term outlook. Headline Inflation Moderates Singapore’s  consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.2% year-on-year in February , down from  1.4% in January , in line with expectations. However, underlying price pressures showed signs of firming: Core inflation rose to 1.4% YoY , up from  1.0% previously This marked the  highest level since December 2024 The data suggests that while headline inflation cooled,  core price momentum is gradually building . Cost Pressures Emerging Across Key Sectors Price increases were driven by several essential categories: Transport (+2.7%)  — reflecting higher mobility and cost pressures Food (+1.6%)  — indicating steady consumption demand Recreation & culture (+1.9%) Meanwhile, housing and utilities remained relatively subdued at  +0.3% , hel...

US  equities  opened  higher  on  Friday  as  soft  economic  data  strengthened  expectations  that  the  Federal  Reserve  may  cut  interest  rates  later  this  year .  Investors  also  remained  cautious  as  geopolitical  tensions  in  the  Middle  East  continued  to  influence  market  sentiment  and  energy  prices. Market  Rebound  After  Recent  Losses The  S& P 500  rose 0.8%   in  early  New  York  trading,  recovering  after  three  consecutive  sessions  of  declines .  The  Nasdaq 100  also  gained 0.8% ,  supported  by  technology  stocks,  although  the  Magnificent  Seven  index  remained  near  ...

Asian  equities  and  currencies  extended  losses  for  a  second  straight  session  as  crude  oil  hovered  near  US$100  per  barrel,  intensifying  inflation  concerns  and  strengthening  the  US  dollar. Oil  Shock  Drives  Risk- Off  Mood MSCI Emerging Markets Index   fell  1.4%   on  Friday  and  is  down  nearly  8%   since  late  February  when  the  war  began. The  emerging- market  currency  gauge  slipped  0.6% ,  bringing  its  decline  to  roughly  2%   over  the  same  period. Meanwhile,  the  US  dollar  index  climbed  to  its  highest  level  since  late  November,  supported  by: Safe- haven...