MONEY MASTER

Quick Summary Bank of Korea keeps benchmark rate at  2.50% New  dot-plot chart shows majority see no change for 6 months 2026 growth forecast raised to  2.0% Chip export boom supports economic outlook Rate Decision: Pause Confirmed The  Bank of Korea  kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at  2.50% , in line with expectations. All 34 economists polled by Reuters had predicted no move. Key point: Policymakers are signalling stability — not easing, not tightening. Dot Plot Debut: Clear Message of No Hike For the first time, the BOK introduced a  Federal Reserve-style dot plot , showing rate expectations over the next six months. Out of 21 dots 16 pointed to 2.50% Suggesting  no change until at least August This indicates a strong consensus for a  prolonged pause . Growth Outlook Improved The BOK raised its 2026 growth forecast to  2.0%  from 1.8%. The upgrade reflects: Strong semiconductor exports Chip boom led by: Samsung Electr...

South Korea’s export engine is accelerating again — powered by the global AI boom — even as uncertainty lingers over US tariff policy. Early February Trade Snapshot According to preliminary customs data (first 20 days of February): Exports (working-day adjusted): +47.3% YoY January full-month: +34% (revised) Unadjusted exports:  +23.5% Imports:  +11.7% Trade surplus:  US$4.95 billion Notably, the surge came  despite fewer working days  due to the Lunar New Year holiday — suggesting underlying momentum remains strong. Semiconductors: The AI Effect The standout driver: Semiconductor exports: +134% YoY Computer peripherals: +129% Petrochemicals: +11% The strength reflects sustained global demand for AI servers, data centres, and high-performance chips. The AI investment cycle is now cushioning broader trade volatility. Autos Drag as Tariffs Bite Weak spots: Auto exports: -27% Auto parts: -21% Sector-specific US duties on autos and steel remain in place under separa...

South Korea’s central bank left its benchmark rate unchanged for the second straight meeting, balancing the need to support a weak economy against the risks of soaring household debt. Policy Decision Benchmark rate:  Held at  2.50%  by unanimous vote of the seven-member board. Market expectation:  27 of 35 economists polled by Reuters predicted no change. Growth outlook:  Revised up to  0.9% for 2025  (from 0.8%), though still the slowest pace since 2020. Why the Hold? Mortgage debt risk:  Four rate cuts since last year have accelerated household debt, raising financial imbalance concerns. Housing market:  BOK Governor  Rhee Chang-yong  flagged that home prices in parts of Seoul remain “still rising at a high rate.” Global context:  With the US Federal Reserve signaling a rate cut soon, analysts expect the BOK to follow, but with caution. Market & Analyst Views Citi Research (Kim Jin-wook):  Sees a  25 bps cut in ...