MONEY MASTER

Eight months into Donald Trump’s presidency, global markets have been hit with one shock after another — steep tariff threats, an attempted shakeup of the Federal Reserve, and even moves toward US-style state capitalism. Yet instead of tumbling, stocks are at fresh highs, bonds are steady, and growth has kept chugging along. For retail investors, the big question:  Is this resilience real, or just the calm before the storm? Why Markets Are Holding Up Economists at BNP Paribas point to a few key cushions: Easy financial conditions  – Rates are still low, liquidity remains strong. Healthy balance sheets  – Households and corporates aren’t overleveraged. AI-driven productivity  – Optimism around tech investment is offsetting risks. Lower energy costs  – Keeping inflation fears in check. On trade, the nightmare scenario of a global tariff war hasn’t materialized. Instead, the US struck  limited deals  with Europe and Asia. Tariffs are higher, but the costs...

China’s 5% growth target for 2024 is under intense scrutiny, with sluggish consumer spending , an uncertain export outlook , and a shaky property market casting doubt over its feasibility. In late September, Beijing introduced a series of stimulus measures , leading to a historic stock rally. However, investor disappointment soon followed as the support measures were seen as insufficient, prompting further government promises of aid for the property sector and hints at increased government borrowing . The Economic Downturn Before these latest efforts, many global banks were already skeptical that China could meet its growth goal. Deflationary pressures were rising, with new-home prices hitting their lowest levels since 2014, and consumer confidence slumped to a multi-year low. Analysts questioned the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy, while China's export growth reached its highest value in two years but was met with global resistance due to cheap Chinese goods . Late...