MONEY MASTER

Malaysian energy stocks are hitting their peak, but the real shift is happening beneath the surface. Key Points Energy earnings likely peak in 2Q2026 Oil stabilising around  ~US$80/barrel Geopolitical risk premium is fading  after US-Iran deal Earnings to  gradually ease from July onwards Sector remains  overweight , but momentum is slowing The oil story is no longer about war risk, it’s about how quickly supply returns and whether demand is strong enough to keep prices near US$80. From War Rally to Normalisation The past few months were driven by: Supply disruptions Shipping constraints Risk premium from Middle East tensions Now, that narrative is shifting: Supply is  gradually returning Production is  coming back online Logistics are  normalising The energy sector is transitioning from a geopolitical-driven rally to a normalisation phase Why Oil Won’t Crash (Yet) Even with peace developments: Infrastructure repairs take time Tanker flows recover grad...

The latest developments in oil markets point to a clear trend:  China is buying less crude , raising concerns about demand strength in the world’s largest energy importer. Chinese Refiners Cut Back on Purchases China’s independent refiners who the main buyers of Iranian crude are  reducing operating rates  as profitability weakens. Key pressures include: Negative refining margins Slower domestic fuel demand Ongoing  economic headwinds These factors are forcing refiners to  cut crude intake , leading to a visible drop in demand. Import Volumes Show Clear Decline The slowdown is reflected in trade flows: Iranian crude shipments to China dropped to  ~1.1 million barrels per day This is the  lowest level since early 2025 Given that these refiners typically account for  around 90% of Iran’s exports , the decline has a  significant impact on global oil demand . Rising Floating Storage Signals Oversupply With demand weakening, excess crude is buildi...

Oil markets are expected to remain elevated despite a temporary ceasefire in the Middle East, as  structural supply disruptions continue to constrain global energy flows . Supply Damage Keeps Oil Prices Elevated According to UOB Global Economics and Markets Research,  Brent crude is likely to hover around US$100 per barrel in the near term , even after a  two-week ceasefire . The reason:  extensive damage to energy infrastructure  across the region. Key assets including  refineries, pipelines, and ports  have been impacted Repairs could take  months or even years Supply chains remain  severely disrupted Brent previously surged to  US$119.50 in late March , before easing to around  US$93.69  following ceasefire news. Strait of Hormuz Bottleneck Persists The  Strait of Hormuz , which handles roughly  20% of global oil and LNG flows , remains a major constraint. Hundreds of  oil tankers are stranded  on both si...

The United Arab Emirates is stepping up efforts to restore global energy flows, signalling willingness to join a  multinational maritime force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz , as geopolitical tensions continue to disrupt supply. Strategic Move to Secure Critical Oil Route The UAE is advocating for a  “Hormuz Security Force” , aimed at: Escorting commercial vessels Protecting shipping from  Iranian attacks Restoring access to a route handling  ~20% of global oil and LNG flows The proposal highlights growing urgency among regional players to  stabilise energy markets and trade routes . Limited Global Support So Far Despite the initiative, several US allies have been  reluctant to commit military resources , reflecting: Concerns over  escalation risks Uncertainty surrounding the  ongoing conflict France has engaged with about  35 countries  on potential cooperation, but any coordinated action may depend on  an eventual ceasefire . UN R...

India has moved to  cut fuel taxes sharply  in a bid to shield its refining sector and consumers from the impact of surging crude prices caused by the ongoing Middle East conflict. Government Steps In to Cushion Oil Price Surge The government reduced fuel levies significantly: Gasoline tax cut to 3 rupees/litre (from 13 rupees) Diesel tax cut to zero (from 10 rupees) The move comes as global oil prices have surged, with India’s crude basket rising to  around US$123 per barrel , up from  US$85 in March 2024 . Refiners Protected, Pump Prices Unchanged Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd  and other state-owned refiners — which control about  90% of fuel retailing in India  — are expected to  maintain current pump prices . This suggests the tax cuts are designed primarily to: Protect refining margins Prevent sudden  price hikes for consumers Maintain  economic stability ahead of inflation risks Oil Shock Forces Policy Response India, the  world’s...

In an interview with Reuters, Kaabi said the current version of the  CSDDD , adopted in 2024, poses a major compliance risk for  QatarEnergy , the state-owned oil and gas giant. The directive requires large corporations operating within the EU to identify and address  human rights and environmental issues  within their supply chains—or face heavy fines. Under the law, penalties could reach  up to 5% of a company’s global revenue  if its climate transition plans fail to align with the  Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target . Kaabi warned that this could make it  impossible for QatarEnergy to justify doing business in the EU , including supplying LNG and other products, due to the “overreaching nature” of the regulation. “We have been engaging with the European Commission and every EU Member State for almost a year now on CSDDD,” he said. “But so far, there has been no response.” EU Market Risks and LNG Supply Implications Qatar currently provides  12...

Sapura Energy Berhad (SEB)  has announced that it has entered into a  Conditional Funding Agreement  with  Malaysia Development Holding Sdn Bhd (MDH) , securing  RM1.1 billion  in redeemable convertible loan stocks. This investment, provided by a special purpose vehicle of the  Ministry of Finance (MOF) , is aimed at helping  Sapura Energy  settle outstanding liabilities to local service providers in Malaysia’s oil and gas sector. Key Points: Funding for Settlement : The funds will be used exclusively to settle  liabilities owed to Malaysian vendors , particularly small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that have been facing financial difficulties, especially since the  COVID-19 pandemic . Support for Local Vendors :  Muhammad Zamri Jusoh , CEO of SEB, emphasized the company’s responsibility to help preserve Malaysia’s oil and gas ecosystem, especially given the significant hardship faced by  over 2,000 local vendors ...

Major Contract Wins Across Regions Sapura Energy (SAPNRG) secured multiple contracts worth RM3.2 billion , boosting its  group order book to RM8.7 billion , with  joint ventures holding an additional RM5.7 billion . Contracts were awarded to its  drilling arm, Sapura Drilling , from  key clients across various regions . Key Contracts & Project Details PTTEP Energy Development Ltd  awarded contracts for  Sapura T-17 and Sapura T-18 drilling rigs , set to commence  Q2 FY2026  with a  5-year firm period + 3-year extension option . Cabinda Gulf Oil Company (Chevron’s subsidiary)  extended the  Sapura Jaya rig contract in Angola  until  November 2025 . ExxonMobil Malaysia  awarded a  30-month drilling contract for the Sapura Berani rig , starting  Q1 FY2026 . EnQuest Malaysia  awarded a contract for  Sapura Esperanza rig  to drill  four offshore wells . Expanding Engineering & Construc...

YTL Power's share price has taken a significant hit, sliding  20.49% in just one month  and showing a continued downtrend over the past six months. The recent earnings report, which revealed an  18% YoY decline  in core net profit to RM1.4 billion, has sparked concerns. However, despite these headwinds, local analysts from RHB and MIDF have maintained their  Buy calls , underpinned by long-term growth prospects in data centres and renewable energy. Key YTL Power Performances Winners: Wessex Water:  Benefited from a  12% tariff hike , aiding its earnings recovery. AI Data Centre Expansion:  The 20MW AI-DC project in Kulai is on track for commercialization by July 2025 under a four-year offtake agreement, with  no expected disruptions in AI chip supply . Strugglers: PowerSeraya Unit:  Saw a  28% drop  in contribution due to lower pool and retail prices in Singapore. Telco Division:  Losses widened  2.4 times to RM59.4 m...

The Energy Transition and Water Transformation Ministry has announced that electricity tariffs in Peninsular Malaysia will remain unchanged for the first half of 2025 under the  Imbalance Cost Pass-Through (ICPT)  mechanism. Key points: Electricity subsidies : The government will finance RM2.388 billion in subsidies to shield domestic consumers from tariff hikes. Fourth Regulatory Period : The average basic tariff for Tenaga Nasional Bhd will be maintained under the  Incentive-Based Regulation framework  from  2025 to 2027 . Future tariff changes : A new  tariff schedule  reflecting actual supply costs will be implemented from  July 1, 2025 , involving a financial allocation of  RM3.57 billion  by the government. This approach ensures a balance in the  energy trilemma  of security, sustainability, and affordability, safeguarding domestic consumers while striving for competitive electricity pricing.

  Energy stocks led the gains on Bursa Malaysia on Monday, as oil prices climbed due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. The Bursa Malaysia Energy index, which tracks 22 oil and gas-related companies, saw an increase of up to 2% during morning trading, before settling at a 0.9% gain by the noon break, reaching 929.89 points. The global benchmark for crude oil, Brent, surged above $79 per barrel. Key Drivers: Middle East Tensions : The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has increased the risk of supply disruptions, which has driven up oil prices. Although the conflict has not yet significantly impacted oil production, the threat of further escalations has heightened market volatility. Oil Price Performance : Oil prices have been volatile throughout 2024, but recent gains have pushed prices up by 3.3% year-to-date. Analysts from Australia & New Zealand Banking Group expect continued volatility due to the geopolitical situation. Top Gainers : Deleum Bhd : The sto...

It's not a good news for the energy shares as they led losses after oil prices plunged.  Not looking good for oil After OPEC decides against the cut, Brent crude oil plunged as much as $6.50 a barrel on Thursday, and U.S. crude fell by nearly as much, posting the steepest one-day falls since 2011. Benchmark Brent futures settled at $72.58 a barrel, down $5.17, after hitting a four-year low of $71.25 earlier in the session. The contract was on track for its biggest monthly fall since 2008. U.S. crude was last down $4.64 at $69.05 a barrel.  This is definitely not a good news for oil producing countries like Russia and even Malaysia. PRICE WAR? It is going to be a price war. The US crude may even slide to below $65 a barrel in coming weeks and this could be a factor against the economy of the Northern American shale oil production.  While many were saying the oil price may have hit a bottom, some analysts have a differing point ...