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Key Takeaway:  Crude oil prices rose after OPEC+ agreed to a  smaller-than-expected production increase  for October, while renewed concerns about Russian supply amid potential new sanctions added further support. Market Snapshot Brent crude : +0.33% to  US$66.24/bbl WTI crude : +0.39% to  US$62.50/bbl OPEC+ Decision OPEC+ to raise  October output by 137,000 bpd , far below: ~555,000 bpd in  Aug–Sep 411,000 bpd in  Jun–Jul Move signals a  partial reversal of cuts  initially planned to stay until end-2026. Analysts had expected larger hikes, making this decision a  supply-side surprise  supportive of prices. Russia Sanctions Risk Prices underpinned by speculation of  new sanctions on Russia  after the largest air attack on Ukraine since the war began. U.S. President Donald Trump signaled readiness for a  second phase of restrictions . The EU’s top sanctions official met U.S. counterparts in Washington, raising the...

 Key Takeaway Oil prices edged higher Monday after Opec+ agreed to  raise production at a slower pace starting October . The move offers short-term support for crude after last week’s losses, but rising supply and weaker demand outlooks keep pressure on the market. Market Snapshot Brent crude:  +0.5% to  $65.84 /barrel WTI crude:  +0.5% to  $62.17 /barrel Both benchmarks lost over  3% last week , with Friday’s U.S. jobs data denting demand expectations. Opec+ Decision Opec+ (Saudi Arabia, Russia, and allies) will  raise output by 137,000 bpd from October . This is much smaller than the  555,000 bpd hikes in August and September  and  411,000 bpd in June and July . Saudi Arabia is pushing to  regain market share , but the slower pace reflects concerns over a potential oil glut in winter. Market Drivers Supply relief:  Smaller-than-expected increase eased market fears, providing a modest price rebound. Geopolitical risk: ...

Shell plc posted a  second-quarter adjusted net income of US$4.26 billion , down 32% from last year but above analyst expectations of US$3.74 billion. The results come after a turbulent quarter marked by US tariffs, Opec+ production shifts, and a brief Middle East conflict that drove crude prices 10% lower. Key Highlights: Adjusted Net Income:  US$4.26B (vs. US$6.29B YoY; beat est. US$3.74B) Cash Flow from Operations:  US$12.3B (consensus: US$10.1B) Share Buybacks:  Maintained at US$3.5B for the quarter Net Debt:  US$43.2B (up from US$41.5B in Q1) Structural Cost Cuts:  Additional US$800M in H1; US$3.9B since 2022 Market Impact: Shell’s London-listed shares rose  2.7%  following the earnings beat and continued commitment to buybacks. CEO Commentary: CEO  Wael Sawan  credited disciplined cost-cutting and operational reliability, saying,  “That’s 15 quarters in a row delivering US$3B+ per quarter in buybacks — that’s key for us.” Howe...

Asian markets slid on Monday amid growing confusion over US tariff plans and a sharp drop in oil prices, as geopolitical chess games and economic policymaking collide once again. President  Donald Trump’s weekend announcement  hinted at a  delay in tariff hikes until August 1 , with letters to be sent to countries “not moving fast enough” on trade negotiations. Yet, the lack of  specific details  on countries affected and rates applied left investors in the dark. “The path forward isn’t clear, but the terrain is littered with risk.” — Stephen Innes, SPI Asset Management Key Market Moves: Nikkei (Japan):  -0.5% CSI 300 (China):  -0.5% MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan:  -0.6% South Korea:  Flat Singapore STI:   +0.3%  to 4,025.72 (as of 12:31 PM) –  notably bucking the regional trend Trade Policy: Clouded by Ambiguity While Trump’s team claims the new tariff letters are imminent, the  lack of concrete agreements  — especially...

Oil prices edged higher Thursday after OPEC+ delayed unwinding production cuts for the second time, aiming to stabilize the market amid global oversupply and sluggish demand from China. Market Reaction WTI crude (January) : +$0.35 (0.5%) to $68.89/bbl. Brent crude (February) : +$0.53 (0.7%) to $72.84/bbl. Natural gas (January) : +2.3% to $3.115/MMBtu. The production cuts, initially planned for January, will now begin in April 2025. Full implementation is pushed back to September 2026 , marking a slower unwinding pace than earlier planned. Expert Insights David Oxley, Capital Economics : Delaying production increases buys OPEC+ time but doesn’t resolve weak global demand. Risks to oil prices remain skewed downward. Robert Yawger, Mizuho Securities : OPEC+ appears to wait for Chinese demand recovery , a strategy that could take time. Jefferies Analysts : OPEC+ is unlikely to boost supply until the market can absorb it, especially without a reduction in Iranian exports . Broader Context ...

Oil prices rose slightly on Wednesday as markets awaited a critical OPEC+ meeting , expected to extend supply cuts, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Asia lent additional support to crude prices. Market Performance Brent Crude Futures: Up 19 cents (0.26%) at $73.81 per barrel by 0916 GMT. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude: Gained 13 cents (0.19%) to $70.07 per barrel. Tuesday Rally: Brent surged 2.5% , its largest gain in two weeks. Geopolitical Turmoil Supports Prices Geopolitical tensions continue to influence oil markets: Middle East: A shaky ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah remains fragile. Israel has warned it will escalate attacks into Lebanon if the truce collapses. Asia: South Korea’s political crisis, following President Yoon Suk Yeol’s reversed martial law declaration, has added to uncertainty. Syria: A rebel offensive threatens to escalate regional tensions, potentially involving several oil-producing nations. "These geopolitical risks...

OPEC has reduced its forecast for global oil demand growth for 2024 and 2025, marking its fourth consecutive cut due to weakness in China and India . The producer group, along with OPEC+ allies like Russia , had delayed plans to increase output, given current market conditions and falling oil prices. In its latest report, OPEC projects world oil demand will rise by 1.82 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, down from last month’s estimate of 1.93 million bpd . This reduction largely reflects weaker demand in China , with OPEC cutting its forecast for Chinese demand growth to 450,000 bpd due to declines in diesel use, amid slowing construction and manufacturing activity and an increase in LNG-fueled trucks. For 2025, OPEC trimmed the global demand growth estimate to 1.54 million bpd from 1.64 million bpd . Brent crude prices saw a dip after the report’s release, trading below $73 per barrel . The International Energy Agency (IEA) is set to update its significantly lower demand ...

Oil prices dipped on Tuesday as concerns grew over China’s latest economic stimulus package and a potential oversupply outlook, along with the strengthening US dollar. Brent crude futures were down by 0.2% to $71.66 per barrel , while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped 0.3% to $67.84 per barrel . China’s recently announced 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) debt package aimed at alleviating local government financing pressures was seen by analysts as insufficient to spur growth in the world’s largest oil importer. Concerns about Chinese demand were heightened after recent data revealed low consumer inflation in October and continued declines in factory prices. Market focus now shifts to monthly oil market reports from OPEC, the International Energy Agency (IEA), and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) . Any further downward revisions in demand forecasts, particularly from OPEC, could further pressure oil prices. OPEC’s report, set for release later on Tuesday, is exp...

Oil prices rose over 1% in early Monday trading, as Opec+ postponed a planned December output hike by one month due to weak demand and increasing supply from non-member countries. Brent crude rose by $1.18 to $74.28 per barrel, and WTI crude gained $1.20 to $70.69 per barrel. The delay extends Opec+’s 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) production cut through December, following an earlier postponement in October. This surprise move is seen as a sign of Opec+’s intent to support prices, contradicting market expectations of an output increase. Additional Market Drivers US Election : Markets are eyeing Tuesday's election, with polls showing a close race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Fed Rate Cut : A 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed is anticipated on Thursday. China’s Stimulus : China’s National People’s Congress is expected to approve further economic stimulus this week.

  Oil prices steadied on Wednesday after a sharp decline in the previous session, supported by OPEC+ supply cuts and persistent uncertainty over the conflict in the Middle East . Brent crude rose by 0.3% to $74.47 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate climbed 0.4% to $70.86 . The market remains cautious as fears of a potential escalation involving Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah continue, despite earlier reports that eased concerns about direct strikes on Iran's oil infrastructure . OPEC+ supply curbs are expected to continue supporting the market until December , though analysts predict that 2025 could be better supplied, potentially putting downward pressure on oil prices. On the demand side, both the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the International Energy Agency have cut their 2024 oil demand growth forecasts, with China contributing significantly to these downgrades. Despite ongoing economic stimulus in China, oil prices have seen l...

OPEC has reduced its oil demand growth forecasts for the third month in a row, signaling a belated recognition of the slowdown in global fuel consumption . The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries now expects oil consumption to increase by 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd) , roughly 2% in 2024, which is 106,000 bpd less than previously forecast. The revision was attributed to updated data and slightly lower expectations in certain regions. Despite the downgrades, OPEC's forecasts remain more optimistic than those of Wall Street banks and other trading houses . OPEC’s estimates also stand at the upper end of projections made by Saudi Aramco and are nearly double the growth expected by the International Energy Agency (IEA) . OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia , is delaying plans to restore 2.2 million bpd of halted production until December, citing concerns about slowing growth in China and rising supplies from the Americas. Market observers like JPMorgan Chase & C...

 Oil prices remained largely unchanged on Tuesday, as concerns about weaker global demand growth overshadowed fears that escalating tensions in the Middle East could disrupt supply from the critical exporting region. Brent crude futures for December delivery edged up seven cents (0.1%) to US$71.77 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for November delivery gained eight cents (0.12%) to US$68.25 . On Monday, Brent futures closed September down 9% , marking its third consecutive month of declines and the largest monthly drop since November 2022. WTI fell 7% last month and dropped 16% for the quarter. Market Sentiment Influences Price Stability "There have been a lot of reservations in place for oil prices, as market participants look towards upcoming supply additions from OPEC+ by the end of this year, alongside a still-soft demand outlook from China reflected in the country’s latest PMI numbers," said Yeap Jun Rong , a market strategist at IG. Des...

OPEC+ is reportedly discussing postponing a planned increase in oil production next month as prices have dropped to their lowest in nine months. The group, which includes OPEC members and allies like Russia, had planned to increase output by 180,000 barrels per day (bpd) in October to start reversing their recent 2.2 million bpd output cuts. However, concerns about weak global economic conditions, particularly in China, and volatility in the oil market have led to reconsideration. Key Highlights: Potential Delay in Output Hike : Sources from OPEC+ indicated that the planned increase in October might be delayed due to current market conditions. This comes after a loss of production from shutdowns in Libya and a weak demand outlook. While some members were set to proceed with the output increase, the idea of postponing is gaining support amid price volatility. Factors Contributing to Market Volatility : Oil prices have been pressured by weak economic data from China, the world's larg...

  The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has revised down its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024, citing weaker-than-expected data from the first half of the year and a softer outlook for China's oil demand. Key Highlights: Demand Growth Cut: OPEC now expects global oil demand to rise by 2.11 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, down from its previous forecast of 2.25 million bpd. China’s Impact: The reduction in the forecast is largely attributed to lower expectations for China’s oil demand growth, alongside actual data from the first and second quarters of 2024. First Forecast Reduction: This marks the first time OPEC has cut its 2024 demand growth forecast since it was initially made in July 2023. Industry Discrepancies: Despite the revision, OPEC's forecast remains at the higher end of industry estimates, with significant differences among forecasters regarding the impact of China's demand and the global shift towards cleaner fuels...

Oil jumped by nearly 4% as OPEC meets; discuss ways to support prices Oil jumped nearly 4 percent on Monday as the world's largest producers gathered in Algeria to discuss ways to support prices, with nervous trade driving volatility to its highest since a similar meeting to freeze output in April in Doha which failed. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other exporters led by No. 1 producer Russia are meeting informally on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum in Algeria from Sept. 26-28 to discuss steps to tackle a price-eroding glut of crude. Key OPEC member Iran, the fourth largest crude exporter which is still trying to recapture output before Western sanctions in 2012, downplayed the chances of a deal while some OPEC members remained hopeful. Brent crude futures LCOc1 were up $1.75, or 3.8 percent, at $47.64 a barrel by 11:19 a.m. EDT (1519 GMT) U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 rose $1.65, or 3.7 perc...

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)  members met in Vienna yesterday, to a much anticipated outcome of once again failing to commit to any production targets (previously collectively 30m bbls/day). OPEC members will thus continue to produce output as they see fit. All is not lost however… we can see that members are beginning to build trust and discussed on issues that could eventually lead to the reinstatement of a production ceiling, coupled with mending their hostilities which were displayed in their previous meetings in December 2015 and April 2016. We retain our Neutral outlook on the O&G sector for the interim as we anticipate continued pressure on oil prices considering last night’s outcome that is expected to flood the market with further supplies yet again. Our average Brent oil price levels are predicted as follows: 2016 – USD44/bbl, 2017 – USD50/bbl and end 2017 – USD60/bbl. Some agreements . i) Appointment of Nigeria’s Mohamme...

Has oil bottom? The oil price seems to have bottom after a 20-month collapse as the oil market shown some strength in its rally to go up as much as 6% on Monday. Speculation about the falling U.S shale output has been the main drive for the rally. Friday's U.S rig count data has been one of the reason for the market reaction as prices began the week with a rebound in Asian trade. The data points to a drop in the number of oil drilling rigs in operations to a December 2009 low after there have been nine consecutive weeks of cut. The statement by International Energy Agency, the world's oil consumer body in regards to U.S shale oil production to fall by 600,000 barrels per day this year and another 200,000 barrels per day in 2017 also helped the oil rally. U.S. crude futures settled up by $1.84, or 6 percent, at $31.48 a barrel, rallying above $32 at one point. Futures of Brent finished up $1.68, or 5 percent, at $34.69. HAS OIL BOTTOM? This is the difficult questio...

I just posted about how the nightmare continues for the oil & gas industry in 2016 as the oil price continues to fall but I didn't expect it to drop like this. Looking at the dynamics, looking at the charts...it's just a free fall. Oil price free fall Oil dropped below $30 a barrel in New York for the first time in 12 years on concern that turmoil in China’s markets will curb fuel demand. West Texas Intermediate crude tumbled to the lowest since December 2003. Concerns that China’s economic growth may slow has soured investors on the prospects for a quick recovery, turning hedge funds the least bullish in five years. A rapid appreciation of the U.S. dollar may send Brent oil to as low as $20 a barrel, Morgan Stanley said. A SHORT HISTORY ON OIL PRICE Between 2010 and 2014, oil demand was soaring around the world, as countries recovered from the financial crisis but the supply was never able to keep up.  Many older oil fields were stagnating. Conflicts ...

It's not a good news for the energy shares as they led losses after oil prices plunged.  Not looking good for oil After OPEC decides against the cut, Brent crude oil plunged as much as $6.50 a barrel on Thursday, and U.S. crude fell by nearly as much, posting the steepest one-day falls since 2011. Benchmark Brent futures settled at $72.58 a barrel, down $5.17, after hitting a four-year low of $71.25 earlier in the session. The contract was on track for its biggest monthly fall since 2008. U.S. crude was last down $4.64 at $69.05 a barrel.  This is definitely not a good news for oil producing countries like Russia and even Malaysia. PRICE WAR? It is going to be a price war. The US crude may even slide to below $65 a barrel in coming weeks and this could be a factor against the economy of the Northern American shale oil production.  While many were saying the oil price may have hit a bottom, some analysts have a differing point ...