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BOT’s Unexpected Move Spurs Market Rally The Bank of Thailand (BOT) cut its interest rate by 0.25 percentage points , surprising economists. The move aims to  support economic growth and weaken the baht  to boost exports. 16 out of 26 economists in a Reuters poll had expected no change  in policy. Market Reactions Thai stocks jumped 2% , rebounding after two consecutive sessions of losses. The baht remained flat , despite expectations of further rate cuts later this year. Other Asian markets gained : Philippines (+1.3%) Malaysia (+1.2%) China (+1%) Regional Currency Movements Singapore dollar, Malaysian ringgit, and Indonesian rupiah fell 0.2% . Taiwan dollar traded flat  after Taiwan revised down its 2025 GDP forecast to  3.14% from 3.29% . US dollar index gained 0.3% , recovering from an 11-week low. Outlook & Future Risks Analysts expect  one or two more rate cuts  if the  US imposes tariffs on Thailand  or if global growth slows. BOT ...

The Thai baht fell over 1% against the US dollar on Tuesday, hitting 34.739 per dollar — its weakest level since August — as investors grew wary of Thailand's central bank independence . The decline follows news that Kittiratt Na-Ranong , a former finance minister and critic of the Bank of Thailand’s (BOT) monetary policy, is set to be appointed as the central bank’s chairman. Kittiratt’s appointment has raised concerns that the government is increasing pressure on the BOT to cut interest rates , potentially affecting its autonomy. “ As long as the central bank’s independence is at risk, investors will likely favor dollar-baht trades,” commented Eugenia Victorino, head of Asia strategy at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken. The baht has declined over 7% this quarter , the weakest performance among Asian currencies, as pressure on BOT to lower borrowing costs grows. Compounding the baht’s outlook, Donald Trump’s recent election victory has heightened fears of new trade tariffs , whic...

The recent rally of the Thai baht is facing uncertainty as markets respond to the latest political developments ahead of the Bank of Thailand’s (BOT) policy meeting this week. Key Highlights: Baht’s Rally at Risk: The Thai baht, one of the region’s top-performing currencies since July, has benefited from a tourism rebound after hitting a near two-year low against the dollar in May. However, the recent political upheaval, including Paetongtarn Shinawatra's election as the new prime minister and the ousting of her predecessor by the courts, may derail the baht’s resurgence. Bearish Outlook: Analysts, including Jeffrey Zhang, an emerging markets strategist at Credit Agricole CIB HK Branch, maintain a bearish view on the baht, forecasting a decline to 36.0 per dollar by the year’s end. Concerns over Thailand’s long-term growth prospects and potential lower neutral rates are contributing to this outlook. Technical Vulnerability: The baht’s recent gains against the dollar are seen as ...