MONEY MASTER

 Key Takeaway Investors see a September Fed rate cut as a done deal after the weak jobs report, but  this week’s CPI inflation reading could reshape expectations for future cuts . Services inflation is the wild card that could keep the Fed cautious. Why the Market Expects a Cut August jobs report showed just  22,000 new jobs , with earlier months revised lower. Traders now price in a  100% chance of a cut  at the Fed’s Sept. 17 meeting, with an  11% chance of a bigger 50bps move  (CME FedWatch). Fed Chair Jerome Powell already signaled in Jackson Hole that the Fed’s focus has shifted toward a weakening labor market. The Data to Watch CPI (Thurs):  Expected to rise 0.3% MoM, 2.9% YoY (vs. 2.7% in July). Core CPI:  Seen steady at 3.1% YoY. Economists warn “sticky” services inflation could complicate rate-cut plans. PPI (Wed):  May show how tariffs are filtering into producer costs. Jobs Revisions (Tues):  Could reveal up to 1 million ...

Key Takeaway A September Fed rate cut looks certain. The real question for investors is whether this marks the  start of a full easing cycle  or just a  one-off move . Friday’s jobs data and next week’s annual revision will shape the answer. Why Friday’s NFP Matters The August Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) is seen as the final piece before the Fed’s Sept. 17 decision. Powell has already signaled dovish intent, meaning the bar is high to prevent a cut. Moderately Weak Data (50k–100k jobs):  Confirms a 25bp cut but cools hopes for back-to-back cuts. Short-term boost for equities possible. Sharply Weak Data (below 30k jobs):  Could trigger recession fears, raising chances of a larger 50bp cut — but risk-off sentiment may weigh on stocks. The Bigger Test: BLS Annual Revision On Sept. 9, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its annual benchmark revision. Nomura expects  600k–900k jobs to be erased  from the past year’s data, showing job growth was overstat...

 Market Snapshot STI : 4,241.61 (-0.35%) Volume / Value : 78.17M / S$90.33M Advancers / Decliners : 58 / 84 Singapore equities opened softer on Tuesday, tracking Wall Street losses overnight as investors brace for  Nvidia’s earnings  midweek and watch inflation data to gauge the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. Global Highlights Wall Street Slips Ahead of Nvidia Earnings Dow Jones: -0.8% to 45,282.47 S&P 500: -0.4% to 6,439.32 Nasdaq: -0.2% to 21,449.29 US stocks eased after Friday’s Fed-fuelled rally, with investors cautious ahead of Nvidia’s Q2 earnings on Wednesday and the Fed’s  preferred PCE inflation data  on Friday. Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole remarks lifted September rate-cut odds to  86% (CME FedWatch) , but sticky inflation could derail expectations. Trump Removes Fed Governor Cook In a move rattling markets, President  Donald Trump dismissed Fed Governor Lisa Cook , citing alleged mortgage fraud. The unprecedented dismissal raises qu...

Powell’s Pivot Sparks Rally U.S. Treasuries rallied Friday after  Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled readiness to cut rates  as soon as September, ending an eight-month pause. Powell highlighted that  labor market risks now outweigh inflation concerns , opening the door to easier policy. Market reaction: 2-year yield:  –10 bps to  3.7% , near early-August lows. Curve steepening:  5s30s spread widened to highest since 2021, reflecting bets that short-term yields will fall faster. Rate pricing:  Futures imply  two cuts by year-end , with a small chance of a third. Still, traders only assign an  ~80% probability  of a September cut, underscoring caution ahead of key economic data. The Data Test Ahead Bond bulls must navigate a series of critical catalysts before the  Sept. 17 FOMC meeting : PCE inflation (this week):  Expected to show  core at 2.9% , near post-2023 highs. Jobs report (early Sept.):  Prior data showed weake...