Balancing Fiscal Prudence and Rakyat-Centric Support
With Budget 2026 set for tabling on 10 October, economists at RHB Research expect the government to strike a careful balance between fiscal consolidation and growth-friendly reforms. The fiscal deficit is projected to narrow to 3.5% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, underpinned by an estimated RM89 billion in development spending — the first year of the 13th Malaysia Plan (13MP).
“Budget 2026 represents the last major opportunity for the unity government to implement meaningful reforms before political considerations ahead of GE16 dominate in 2027,” RHB noted.
On the fiscal front, the lack of a Goods and Services Tax (GST) means the government will need to expand its revenue base without overburdening businesses. RHB highlighted that improved service delivery, digitalisation, and civil service reform could help enhance tax collection and reduce leakages.
Attracting FDI and cutting bureaucratic hurdles.
Incentivising automation, productivity gains, and TVET talent development.
Providing consumer support for lower-income households and possible civil servant bonuses, offset by potential excise hikes on sugar and sin products.
Offering regulatory clarity for the auto sector.
Boosting sectors tied to Visit Malaysia Year 2026, alongside support for construction and property.
While Malaysia’s equity market has underperformed in 2025, much of the downside risk is seen as priced in. Still, further upside for the FBM KLCI will hinge on either a stronger earnings recovery or sustained foreign inflows. RHB maintained its end-2025 KLCI target at 1,620 points, pegged at 15x forward earnings.
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