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Press Metal shares fell more than 6% as aluminium prices dropped to a three-month low, driven by easing Middle East tensions and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The move signals a broader shift in the commodity cycle as supply risks unwind. The aluminium story is shifting from supply disruption to normalisation and that changes everything. What’s Happening Aluminium prices falling Down to ~US$3,122/tonne (3-month low) Supply concerns easing as shipping routes reopen Press Metal hit hard Share price dropped ~6–7% Highly sensitive to aluminium price movements Previously benefited from war-driven rally Strong earnings supported by higher prices Stock still up ~10% since Iran conflict began What’s Really Changing This is not just a price drop, it’s a  cycle transition : Before →  Geopolitical supply shock  (prices pushed higher) Now →  Supply normalisation  (prices easing) As Hormuz reopens, the market is moving away from scarcity pricing. Key Takeaway The ke...

Key Takeaway:  Canadian aluminium producers are diverting shipments from the U.S. to Europe after  President Trump reinstated and later doubled tariffs  on imports, pushing U.S. aluminium prices to record premiums. Export Shift Quebec aluminium exports (Q2 2025): U.S.:  Fell to  78%  of shipments (vs.  95%  in Q1) Europe:  Jumped to  18%  of shipments (vs. just  0.2%  in Q1) Quebec accounts for  ~90% of Canada’s aluminium capacity , making the U.S. its traditional main buyer due to proximity. Producer Responses Alcoa Corp:  Diverted  100,000 metric tons  of Canadian aluminium away from the U.S. in Q2, sending more to Europe. Aluminerie Alouette (40% Rio-owned):  Sent  57% of Q2 output to Europe , compared with  4% in Q1 . Rio Tinto:  Declined shipment data but has reportedly curbed U.S. exports, instead  reselling rivals’ supplies  to American buyers to bypass tariffs. Mark...

China's record-breaking aluminum production is expected to continue for the remainder of the year, with national output projected to rise by 3% in the fourth quarter, reaching 11 million tons , according to Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) . This growth is supported by a surge in hydropower generation , ensuring that key production regions, such as Yunnan , will avoid the power shortages that have led to production cuts in recent years. In August , China's aluminum smelters produced a record 3.69 million tons , and while September may show a slight dip, production is expected to rebound to 3.72 million tons in December , SMM reported. Despite a slowing economy , demand for aluminum has remained strong due to the metal’s increased usage in clean energy applications such as electric vehicles (EVs) and solar power systems . Aluminum production is highly energy-intensive , but hydropower , particularly in Yunnan, has seen a 22% increase in output in the first eight months of 2024, ...

Aluminium prices extended their decline from a two-month high as concerns over China's demand recovery persisted, coupled with ample global supplies. The metal has dropped nearly 4% since Tuesday's close, reflecting the broader trend in industrial metals, which are also facing downward pressure due to a weakened risk appetite in financial markets. Key Takeaways: Aluminium Price Decline: Aluminium has fallen almost 4% since Tuesday, driven by concerns over China's sluggish demand recovery and sufficient global supplies, leading to a widening discount in spot prices. Broader Impact on Industrial Metals: The weakening of risk appetite in financial markets, exacerbated by underwhelming earnings from tech companies, contributed to declines in other industrial metals like tin and copper. Market Outlook: Analysts predict further declines in aluminium prices, citing elevated supply levels and limited downstream demand recovery in China as key factors influencing the market.

Retain HOLD with a target price (TP) of RM2.62 Press Metal Bhd (April 19, RM2.79) Maintain hold with a fair value of RM2.62:  The global demand for aluminium is expected to grow modestly at 5% annually from financial year 2017 (FY17) to forecasted FY19 (FY19F), largely attributed to the transportation and construction segments which account for half of the global primary demand, while supply is expected to remain flat at 60 million tonnes. Currently, demand for aluminium stands at 59 million tonnes with supply at 59 million tonnes. The slow supply growth is mainly due to the curb on aluminium production in China where the government has issued a policy draft to cut down production during the winter season. The curb is to tackle pollution which worsens in winter. Experts reckoned that if the China policy kicks in, they forecast a reduction of 1.3 million tonnes of aluminium production (4% of total production in China). The positive outlook for aluminium i...