Key Takeaway: Wall Street extended its rally with the S&P 500 marking its 28th record high of 2025, powered by Nvidia’s pledge to invest up to US$100 billion in OpenAI. While optimism remains strong, analysts caution that valuations are stretched and selective investing is key.
Wall Street showed no signs of slowing, even after a US$15 trillion rally from April lows, as technology stocks led another charge higher. The S&P 500 notched its 28th record close this year, boosted by Nvidia Corp’s 4% surge following its massive investment commitment to OpenAI. The funds will support the building of data centers with 10 gigawatts of power capacity, deploying Nvidia’s advanced chips to train and run AI models.
The AI-fueled rally has prompted calls for investors to stay “responsibly bullish.” Goldman Sachs’ Tony Pasquariellowarned against stepping in front of the “US mega-cap tech freight train,” even as he flagged stretched risk/reward positioning.
Elsewhere, trading was calmer. Treasury yields ticked higher ahead of this week’s key inflation report and Treasury auctions, while the dollar ended a three-day advance. Gold prices set a new record. In crypto, sentiment weakened.
The Federal Reserve remains in focus. Several officials are due to speak, including Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday. New Fed governor Stephen Miran argued for aggressive rate cuts, while regional presidents Alberto Musalem and Beth Hammack stressed caution to avoid overheating the economy. Investors are shifting attention to how the Fed balances sticky inflation risks in 2026 against labor market weakness.
Optimism remains strong across Wall Street. Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin raised his S&P 500 targets to 6,800 in three months, 7,000 in six months, and 7,200 in 12 months, with the index currently trading near 6,700. Historical trends support the bullish case: since 1950, the S&P has averaged 5.5% gains in the final four months when it achieved at least 20 records before August.
Still, analysts urge selectivity. “Valuations are rising, which makes it all the more important for investors to be bottom-up,” said Rick Gardner at RGA Investments. UBS’s Mark Haefele echoed the view, noting consolidation may follow the run-up, but still sees the S&P 500 at 6,800 by June 2026, with a bull case of 7,500.
Seasonal weakness has yet to materialize, but upcoming data will be pivotal. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — the PCE price index — is expected to show 0.2% growth in August, easing from July’s 0.3%, with core inflation steady at 2.9%. Investors are hoping for “Goldilocks” data: soft enough to justify more Fed cuts but not weak enough to trigger recession fears.
Bottom Line: Nvidia’s blockbuster investment reignited AI enthusiasm and pushed US equities to new highs. While history suggests the rally may extend into year-end, elevated valuations and policy uncertainty could make the road bumpier ahead.
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