MONEY MASTER

Key Takeaway:  Gold surged to a fresh record of  US$3,759.02 per ounce  before steadying, fueled by bets on further US interest rate cuts and a softer dollar, with investors awaiting  Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech  for policy signals. Gold prices hovered near record highs on Tuesday, underpinned by expectations of more US Federal Reserve rate cuts and a weaker greenback. Investors are closely watching Fed Chair  Jerome Powell’s remarks later today for clues on the central bank’s next moves. Spot gold held at  US$3,743.39 per ounce  as of 0238 GMT after touching an all-time peak of  US$3,759.02  earlier in the session. US gold futures for December delivery added  0.1% to US$3,779.50 . The US dollar index slipped  0.1% , making dollar-denominated bullion more attractive to overseas buyers. Analysts see the near-term trend as bullish, though a short-term pullback is possible. OANDA’s  Kelvin Wong  noted that key suppo...

Key Takeaway:  The Fed’s first rate cut of 2025 has fueled optimism, but Powell’s upcoming remarks could determine whether markets see it as a one-off adjustment or the start of a broader easing cycle. Federal Reserve Chair  Jerome Powell  is set to speak Tuesday at an economic luncheon hosted by the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce in Rhode Island. Investors will be listening closely for signals on the future path of monetary policy, following last week’s highly anticipated  quarter-point rate cut  that lowered the Fed’s benchmark to  4.00%-4.25% . The move was designed to support growth as labor market data shows signs of softening. Yet Powell cautioned that the cut should not be read as the start of an aggressive easing cycle. “You could think of this in a way as a  risk management cut ,” he explained, highlighting that future moves would remain  data-dependent . The Fed’s updated “dot plot” reflects  three projected cuts in 2025 , u...

Asian financial markets rallied on Monday after Federal Reserve Chair  Jerome Powell  signaled a dovish policy stance at Jackson Hole, boosting risk sentiment across regional equities and currencies. The  Malaysian ringgit  gained  0.6% to 4.20 per USD , its sharpest intraday rise in three weeks, while the  Indonesian rupiah  climbed  0.5% to a one-week high . The  Taiwan dollar  advanced 0.6% and the  Indian rupee  strengthened 0.2%. Equities also posted strong gains, led by  Taipei’s benchmark index (+2.5%) , buoyed by semiconductor shares. Jakarta and Seoul rose over 1%, while Bangkok added 0.7%. Fed Pivot Boosts Risk Assets Powell highlighted growing risks to the US job market, reinforcing expectations of monetary easing: 80% probability  of a  25bps Fed rate cut in September  (Sept 16–17 FOMC). Nearly  50bps of cumulative easing priced in by year-end . The  US dollar index  stayed near a ...

Powell’s Pivot Sparks Rally U.S. Treasuries rallied Friday after  Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled readiness to cut rates  as soon as September, ending an eight-month pause. Powell highlighted that  labor market risks now outweigh inflation concerns , opening the door to easier policy. Market reaction: 2-year yield:  –10 bps to  3.7% , near early-August lows. Curve steepening:  5s30s spread widened to highest since 2021, reflecting bets that short-term yields will fall faster. Rate pricing:  Futures imply  two cuts by year-end , with a small chance of a third. Still, traders only assign an  ~80% probability  of a September cut, underscoring caution ahead of key economic data. The Data Test Ahead Bond bulls must navigate a series of critical catalysts before the  Sept. 17 FOMC meeting : PCE inflation (this week):  Expected to show  core at 2.9% , near post-2023 highs. Jobs report (early Sept.):  Prior data showed weake...

 Market Overview Singapore:  Straits Times Index (STI) opened higher at  4,263.99 (+0.26%) , with  152 advancers vs. 20 decliners . U.S.:  Stocks surged Friday after Powell signaled a dovish pivot at Jackson Hole. Global:  Canada eases U.S. trade tensions by dropping certain USMCA-compliant tariffs. U.S. Markets – Fed Pivot Lifts Wall Street Powell’s Remarks:  Suggested a possible  rate cut in September , citing inflation risks and a weakening labor market. Jobs Data:  July added  73K jobs , well below expectations, with sharp downward revisions for prior months. Market Reaction: Dow Jones:  +1.9% to 45,631.74 (over +800 points) S&P 500:  +1.5% to 6,466.91 Nasdaq:  +1.9% to 21,496.53 Sectors:  Consumer discretionary, energy, and communication services led; consumer staples lagged. Rate Cut Odds:  FedWatch tool shows  85% probability of 25bps cut in September , up from 75% a day earlier. Investor Takeaway...

 A Careful Approach at Jackson Hole At the Jackson Hole symposium, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a likely interest-rate cut in September. But unlike the aggressive easing cycle of 2023, Powell stressed a measured approach, making it clear that investors shouldn’t expect rapid or repeated cuts unless economic conditions worsen. Why the Fed Is Hesitant Labor Market Softness:  Powell noted “curious” signs of weakness despite low unemployment. Both labor supply and demand are slipping, raising concerns of a sudden deterioration. Inflation Risks:  With inflation running close to 3% (above the Fed’s 2% target), several officials remain wary of cutting too soon. Tariff-driven price pressures could persist if businesses continue testing consumer tolerance for higher prices. Split Among Fed Officials:  Some policymakers favor more aggressive easing, while others argue rate cuts are premature given sticky inflation. Powell’s Strategy Powell echoed Fed governor ...

 Why Jackson Hole Holds Market Power Every August, the Kansas City Fed’s Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole commands global attention. While not an official FOMC meeting, it has become one of the most influential stages for monetary policy signals. Fed Chairs have historically used the event to hint at strategic shifts that ripple through global markets. In 2022, Powell’s nine-minute hawkish warning sparked a sharp selloff, wiping 3–4% off major U.S. indices in a single day. In 2023, jitters arrived even before his speech, with the Dow posting its steepest one-day decline in five months. In 2024, Powell flipped the script, hinting at a dovish pivot that sent equities higher and paved the way for a surprise 50-basis-point cut in September. With the exception of the 2022 shock, Jackson Hole has generally acted as a tailwind for equities rather than a drag. Market Expectations Ahead of Powell’s Address Powell’s keynote is scheduled for Thursday, August 22 at 10:00 a.m. ET, and ...

Global investors are once again turning their eyes to  Jackson Hole, Wyoming , where the Kansas City Fed’s annual Economic Policy Symposium runs from  August 21–23 . All attention is on  Fed Chair Jerome Powell , who will deliver his keynote speech on  Thursday, August 22 at 10:00 a.m. ET . Why Jackson Hole Matters This annual gathering has become a stage where central bankers signal major policy shifts. Powell’s past speeches show how powerful these moments can be: 2022:  A short, blunt speech triggered a market selloff, with the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq plunging 3–4% in a single day. 2023:  Markets fell even before Powell spoke, with the Dow seeing its biggest one-day drop in five months. 2024:  Powell’s dovish hints lifted the S&P 500 by more than 1%. The Fed followed up weeks later with a surprise 50 bps cut, starting its easing cycle. With this track record, markets know Jackson Hole can reshape expectations in minutes. Will Powell Signal ...

Despite President Donald Trump’s repeated calls for rate cuts, the forces shaping long-term borrowing costs go far beyond the influence of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.  Structural shifts in global savings and investment demand are pushing yields higher , making a return to the ultra-low rates of the past three decades increasingly unlikely. Debt Surge Meets Shrinking Savings Pool Governments and corporations are taking on record levels of debt to finance tax cuts, AI investments, and rising defense budgets. At the same time, the global savings glut that once kept rates low is reversing: Baby Boomers  are retiring, drawing down savings instead of adding to them. China  has scaled back Treasury purchases as it decouples from the US. Petrostates  are redirecting oil revenue into domestic mega-projects rather than US debt. Bloomberg Economics estimates the natural rate of interest has already climbed from 1.7% in 2012 to around  2.5% in 2024 , with a traject...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell held firm on keeping interest rates unchanged for the fifth straight meeting, resisting calls from the White House and two dissenting Fed officials for an immediate cut. Key Points: Rates on Hold:  Fed maintained the target range, citing lingering inflation risks and uncertainty from President Donald Trump’s new tariffs. Double Dissent:  Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman voted for a cut, marking the first dual dissent in more than 30 years. Market Reaction:  Investors sold Treasuries, pushing the dollar higher; S&P 500 slipped. Rate-cut odds for September dropped to  40% from 60% . Powell’s Stance: Powell said the Fed needs more data before acting, especially with two more months of employment and inflation reports due before the next meeting. “A reasonable base case is that the effects on inflation could be short-lived, but it is also possible that they are more persistent — and that is a risk to be managed,” Po...

Federal Reserve chair  Jerome Powell  heads into this week’s policy meeting under intense scrutiny, with  political pressure, tariff-driven uncertainty, and critical economic data  all converging. Fed Meeting:  Policymakers are expected to hold rates steady at  4.25%-4.50% , but Trump’s repeated calls for immediate cuts have raised tensions over the central bank’s independence.   Key Data Drop: GDP Q2:  Forecast +2.4% annualized, rebounding from a -0.5% contraction in Q1. Consumer spending likely slowed to  +1.5% , its weakest stretch since 2020. Jobs (July):  Hiring expected to cool to  +100K  with unemployment ticking up to  4.2% . Job openings are also projected to decline. Core PCE (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge):  June reading may show a slight uptick, hinting that tariffs are gradually feeding into prices. Bloomberg Economics warns:  “A consumer-led slowdown poses a risk… The labour market will define the...

US President Donald Trump hinted on Friday that the  Federal Reserve could be preparing to lower interest rates  after what he described as a “very good meeting” with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The comments followed Trump’s  rare visit to the Fed’s headquarters  on Thursday to tour its ongoing building renovations, which the White House has criticized for being too costly. During the visit, Trump again pressed Powell to  slash rates immediately , sparking renewed debate about political pressure on the central bank. Key Points: Trump on the meeting:  “I think we had a very good meeting on interest rates.” Current Fed rate range:  4.25%–4.50% Policy outlook:  The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged at next week’s meeting, with Powell emphasizing the need to wait for more economic data. Context: This was one of the  few times a sitting president has visited the Fed , underscoring the significance of the encounter. Trump and Powell also sparred...

In a highly unusual move,  President Donald Trump visited the Federal Reserve's historic headquarters  on Thursday—only the fourth such visit by a sitting president since 1937. While the official reason was to inspect the  $2.5 billion renovation  of the Eccles Building,  Trump made it clear his real agenda was pushing Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates. Trump’s Message to Powell: Cut Rates—Now Trump told reporters he would “love [Powell] to lower interest rates,” arguing the current rate of  4.375% should be “three points, maybe more” lower. He claimed  inflation is easing  and the  economy remains strong , suggesting Powell is “too late” in responding. Behind the Scenes of the Fed Visit Trump toured the building alongside Powell and lawmakers including  Sen. Tim Scott and Sen. Thom Tillis . The renovation has drawn criticism for its cost and features like rooftop garden terraces and blast-proof windows. Reporters noted quirk...

As Wall Street tiptoes near record highs,  investors are shifting their gaze —from political tension to the real test:  corporate earnings . With Big Tech lined up to report and early results exceeding expectations,  the market’s rally now hinges on whether profits can deliver —or disappoint. 1. Earnings = Market's New Lifeline Forget tariffs (for now). The real story is in the numbers. So far,  85% of S&P 500 companies reporting have beaten earnings estimates , with banks leading the charge thanks to higher trading revenues and consumer strength. Analyst Michael Arone sees  Q2 earnings growth hitting 9% —almost double what was expected just weeks ago. If results keep surprising to the upside,  this could fuel the next leg up  in the rally. 2. Tariffs Still Lurking in the Shadows President Trump’s  10% global tariffs  kicked in on April 5, and another hike looms on  August 1 . But markets have mostly shrugged them off—so far. Why? Be...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell  is under pressure again — this time over the  ballooning cost  of a renovation project at Fed buildings, now projected at  $2.5 billion . To address concerns, Powell has asked  Inspector General Michael Horowitz  to take a fresh look at the renovation costs, according to a letter cited by  Politico . What’s the Issue? The  Fed’s building overhaul  costs have surged, triggering criticism, especially from  Trump allies . Trump has called on Powell to resign — not over policy, but now using renovation costs as a  potential accountability angle . Powell responded by inviting  a new review by the Fed’s internal watchdog , showing an attempt at transparency. Political Context Powell was first nominated by  Trump in 2017 , then reappointed by  Biden  in 2021. His term runs until  May 15, 2026 . Under the law, the President  cannot fire the Fed chair over monetary policy dis...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made headlines again—this time not for what the Fed  is  doing, but for what it  might have done  if tariffs weren’t in the way. Speaking at the European Central Bank’s annual forum in Portugal, Powell reiterated that the Fed  would likely have cut interest rates further this year  had it not been for President Trump’s  aggressive tariff agenda , which injected fresh uncertainty into inflation forecasts and economic data. “In effect, we went on hold when we saw the size of the tariffs,” Powell said. “The prudent thing to do is to wait and learn more.” Tariffs vs. Rate Cuts: A Tug-of-War Despite pressure from the White House and some Fed governors to slash rates, Powell emphasized that the Fed must tread carefully. The central bank is watching closely to see whether  tariff-induced price increases  evolve into persistent inflation. So far, inflation has remained surprisingly  tame , but Powell warned th...

Fed Signals Patience Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell struck a  cautious tone  in his testimony to Congress, signaling  no immediate rate cuts  while inflation remains above target. However, he left the door open for easing  later this year , depending on data. Market Context The Fed is in wait-and-see mode, watching both  inflation trends  and  labor market strength . Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions and new tariffs add layers of complexity to the economic outlook. Where Smart Money Is Moving: 1. Rate-Cut Sensitive Stocks Potential beneficiaries if the Fed pivots: Sectors : Homebuilders, Utilities, REITs, Consumer Discretionary Stocks to Watch : D.R. Horton, Lennar, NextEra Energy, Digital Realty Trust, Home Depot, Amazon 2. Defense & Cybersecurity Tensions like Iran-Israel are fueling demand: Sectors : Defense Contractors, Cybersecurity Stocks to Watch : Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, Fortinet 3. Energ...

Federal Reserve Chairman  Jerome Powell emphasized a cautious approach  to future rate cuts, balancing economic growth and inflation management, during a press conference after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The Fed reduced the target federal funds rate by  25 basis points  to a range of 4.25%-4.5%, signaling a  slower pace of cuts in 2025  amid  faster inflation and heightened uncertainty . Key Takeaways Proceeding Cautiously Powell underscored that the Fed is  "a hundred basis points closer to neutral"  and will tread carefully in adjusting rates further. He stated, "The economy seems to be in good shape," adding that the current rate policy remains  "meaningfully restrictive" , supporting economic activity and the labor market while continuing to combat inflation. Bitcoin Ownership Off the Table Addressing speculation, Powell clarified that the Fed  "is not allowed to own Bitcoin" , citing the Federal Reserve A...