MONEY MASTER

Gold steadied near the $4,000 level after softer US inflation data reduced expectations of aggressive rate hikes. While the metal has pulled back from its recent highs, easing yields and a weaker dollar are helping to stabilise prices. Gold is no longer driven by fear alone, it is now highly sensitive to interest-rate expectations. What’s Happening Inflation came in softer than expected PCE rose 0.4% → below expectations Reduces urgency for rate hikes Rate-hike expectations easing Lower probability of near-term hikes Bond yields declined Dollar momentum slowing Recent rally paused Supports gold prices Gold stabilising near $4,000 After recent sharp pullback Still heading for a fourth weekly loss What Changed Gold’s recent weakness reflects a shift: Earlier rally driven by  geopolitics + debt concerns Now pressured by  “higher-for-longer” rate expectations The market is transitioning from: Fear-driven buying → Rate-driven pricing KeyTakeaway The key driver for gold is no longer...

Global  equities  staged  a  modest  rebound   on  Friday  after  several  sessions  of  heavy  selling,  as  oil  prices  slipped  below  the $100  per  barrel  threshold .  However,  investors  remain  cautious  as  the  escalating  conflict  involving  Iran  continues  to  threaten  energy  supply  chains ,  raising  concerns  about  inflation  and  interest  rate  trajectories. While  lower  oil  prices  provided  temporary  relief  to  equity  markets,  the  broader  outlook  remains  clouded  by  geopolitical  uncertainty  and  shifting  expectations  around  central  bank  policy. Oil  Prices  Ease  but  Energy ...

Key Takeaways Japan’s Nikkei fell  1.5%  as weak household spending deepened expectations of a BOJ rate hike. Japan’s 10-year bond yield hit  1.94% , the highest since 2007. Markets now price a  75% chance  of a BOJ rate hike in December. Asian markets were broadly subdued, with mixed performance across major indices. Investors await the delayed US  PCE inflation  report, expected to show core inflation rising 0.2 percent. Fed funds futures imply almost a  90% chance  of a rate cut next week despite divisions within the Fed. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell sharply on Friday, erasing its weekly gains as weak household spending data reinforced concerns about inflation and strengthened expectations of a Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike later this month. The index dropped  1.5% , placing it on track for a flat week. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased  0.1%  but remained up  0.5%  for the week. Japan’s h...

U.S. stocks have climbed back toward record levels after a volatile month, but investors remain uneasy as persistent inflation and weakening labor data cloud the outlook. That’s why Friday’s release of the  September personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index  — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge — is being viewed as a major test of the market’s renewed optimism. Despite rising equity prices, recession warnings from soft data such as consumer sentiment surveys and private payroll reports have kept sentiment mixed. Investors are hoping Friday’s delayed PCE report will provide the  “hard data” clarity  that has been missing. Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide, said investors are watching the PCE report more closely because many forward-looking indicators have been unreliable. “There’s this confusion that the data we’re getting is lagged or incomplete,” Hackett said. “The PCE fills in the blanks because soft data measures have been probl...

All eyes are on the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge this Friday — and the market might not like what it sees. After a brief sigh of relief from softer CPI and PPI earlier this month,  February’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data is expected to show that inflation hasn’t cooled further — and might be getting stickier. Key Takeaways: 1. Headline PCE Expected to Hold Steady Total PCE inflation is forecasted at  +0.3% MoM  and  2.5% YoY  —  unchanged from January . Even Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at the same 2.5% figure. 2. Core PCE Might Tick Higher Core PCE (ex-food & energy) is projected at  +0.3% MoM  and  2.7% to 2.8% YoY  — slightly hotter than January. Key drivers: rising  goods prices ,  healthcare , and  financial services . 3. Why This Matters for Investors The Fed won’t tolerate inflation drifting further from its  2% target . If Friday’s data is sticky,  rate cuts may get delayed  o...

 The US bond market, already reeling from its worst selloff in six months , is about to face a pivotal 10-day stretch that could set the tone for the rest of the year. Kicking off this critical period is the Treasury Department's announcement on Wednesday, revealing the scale of upcoming debt sales, followed by the monthly payroll report on Friday , which will provide key insights into the health of the economy and potential for further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve . Adding to the tension is the Nov 5 presidential election and the Federal Reserve's meeting on Nov 7 , which will be its first since it began easing monetary policy in September. Treasury prices have fallen sharply over the past month, with concerns growing that the continued strength of the US economy will limit how deeply the Fed will cut rates. Investors are particularly wary of a Donald Trump election victory , which could drive yields higher due to speculation that his policies, such as tax ...

US consumer spending rose slightly less than anticipated in August, indicating a potential moderation in economic growth for the third quarter. However, economic expansion remains likely, as the goods trade deficit narrowed by the largest margin in nearly two years, according to data from the Commerce Department . Consumer spending, which makes up more than two-thirds of US economic activity, increased by 0.2% in August , following a 0.5% rise in July. Economists had expected a 0.3% increase . The spending was mainly driven by services , such as housing, healthcare, and recreation, with a decline in goods spending, especially in motor vehicles and parts . Despite these declines, higher incomes and savings are supporting consumer spending through the rest of the year. Inflation, measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index , rose by 0.1% in August , in line with forecasts, marking the smallest annual increase since February 2021. Over the 12 months through Aug...