MONEY MASTER

Manufacturers Turn Cautious Despite Marginal Output Growth Manufacturers across Southeast Asia are the least optimistic about future growth since July 2020, as Trump’s sweeping tariff rollout weighs on sentiment. According to S&P Global’s PMI data, confidence in future output dropped sharply, even as the headline index edged up to 50.1 in July, signalling a slight return to expansion after June’s steepest contraction in nearly four years. Trump’s Tariffs Cloud Regional Outlook Tariff Impact:  The White House’s latest policy has imposed levies of 10%–40% on Asian exports, hitting key industrial hubs reliant on US-bound shipments. Trade Sensitivity:  Southeast Asia’s manufacturing sector serves as a bellwether for global trade. The prolonged uncertainty is dampening capital expenditure and hiring plans across the region. Mixed Signals:  While output and export orders improved slightly, S&P Global economist Maryam Baluch warned that “confidence continues to erode,” w...

China’s factory activity unexpectedly deteriorated in July, with the official manufacturing PMI dropping to  49.3  from June’s 49.7, marking its weakest reading in three months and signaling a contraction despite the recent tariff truce with the US. The figure missed economists’ median forecast of 49.7, raising fresh concerns over the durability of the country’s economic momentum. Key Data: Manufacturing PMI:  49.3 (vs. 49.7 in June; est. 49.7) Non-Manufacturing PMI:  50.1 (vs. 50.5; est. 50.2) Construction Input Prices:  54.5 (vs. 48.3), driven by rising steel and building material costs. Market Reaction: CSI 300 Index:  Down ~1% after the release. China Government Bonds:  Futures rose as investors sought safety. Drivers Behind the Slowdown: Weak Exports:  Early signs that shipments are slowing despite front-loading ahead of tariffs. Soft Domestic Demand:  Consumer spending remains tepid amid persistent uncertainty. Seasonal & Weather Di...

Japan's factory output dropped sharply in August, casting doubt on the country's economic recovery trajectory. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) reported a 3.3% decline in industrial output from the previous month, significantly worse than the expected 0.9% drop . The fall was primarily driven by typhoon-related disruptions in motor vehicle production and weak US sales, highlighting challenges for Japan's export-reliant economy. Motor vehicle production plummeted 10.6% in August, as Typhoon Shanshan forced several automakers to suspend operations. Certification scandals also contributed to the decline, with production halts for three domestic models. Analysts attributed part of the slump to weak auto sales in the US . The production machinery sector also took a hit, with chip-making machinery production falling 18.7% month-on-month, largely due to weaker overseas demand, particularly a sharp drop in exports to Taiwan . Although manufacturers are ...

China's manufacturing sector experienced a significant contraction in September, with factory activity shrinking as both domestic and international demand cooled. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3 , down from 50.4 in August, missing analysts' forecasts of 50.5 . This marked the lowest reading since July 2023 and indicates a sharp decline in new orders, impacting factory owners' confidence , which is now near record lows. Despite aggressive government efforts to stimulate economic growth , including lowering interest rates and increasing banking liquidity , new orders—both domestically and abroad—fell sharply. The sub-index for new orders hit its lowest point in two years , signaling weakening demand. Foreign demand also declined at the fastest pace since August last year, with manufacturers attributing the drop to deteriorating global trade conditions. The United States' tariffs on Chinese products, including electric vehicles (EVs) , a...