MONEY MASTER

US inflation tells a conflicting story —  headline is too high, but core is cooling . This leaves the Federal Reserve in a difficult position with  no clear policy direction . The Core Dilemma “The Fed is trapped because headline inflation is too high to cut rates, but core inflation is too soft to justify aggressive hikes.” Headline CPI:  4.2% YoY  (elevated, driven by energy) Core CPI:  0.2% MoM  (cooling, below expectations) Key point: Inflation looks strong on the surface, but weak underneath. What’s Really Driving Inflation The spike is not broad-based: Energy surged: Gasoline  +40.5% YoY Contributed  over 60% of CPI increase Core components showed weakness: Goods prices declined Transport and insurance costs eased This is an oil-driven inflation story, not demand overheating. Why the Fed Can’t Move No Room to Cut Headline above 4% = politically and economically sensitive Cutting now risks  losing credibility on inflation No Urgency to H...

U.S. Treasuries strengthened on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve delivered its  third straight 25bps rate cut , easing concerns that policymakers were preparing to pause. Traders maintained expectations for  two additional cuts in 2026 , despite the Fed’s projections signalling only one. Short-End Leads Rally Yields fell across the curve: 2-year yield  dropped almost  8bps to 3.54%  — its biggest one-day drop in two months Longer-dated yields also retreated from multi-month highs Treasuries extended gains after Fed Chair  Jerome Powell  highlighted concerns over  weaker hiring . Bond managers described the move as a  relief rally , noting fears of a more hawkish message did not materialize. Fed Cuts, But Divisions Deepen The Fed lowered the benchmark rate to  3.50%–3.75% . The decision included  three dissents : Two  officials preferred no cut One  supported a larger  50bps  reduction Powell said the Fed is no...

Asian markets were mixed on Thursday after  Oracle’s disappointing earnings  triggered a selloff in AI-related stocks, while the  US dollar weakened  and  bonds strengthened  following the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut. Oracle Shock Pulls Down AI Stocks Oracle shares plunged  over 11%  after hours as its profit and revenue outlook missed expectations. Executives also warned of higher spending — raising concerns that  AI infrastructure costs are rising faster than profits . In Asia: SoftBank Group dropped 5% , weighing on Japan’s Nikkei Tokyo’s AI-linked stocks  were the biggest losers Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures fell  0.5%  and  0.3%  respectively Fed Cuts Rates, Dollar Slides The Fed lowered interest rates by  25bps to 3.5%–3.75% , but Chair  Jerome Powell  struck a balanced tone, reassuring markets that no official sees rate hikes as the base case. This pushed: S&P 500 up 0.7% Dollar lower ...

The US Federal Reserve delivered its  third straight interest rate cut , lowering the federal funds rate to  3.5%–3.75% , while signaling only  one cut expected in 2026 . The decision, however, revealed the deepest internal split among Fed officials in six years — a sign of rising uncertainty over inflation and labor market risks. Below is a simplified, SEO-friendly breakdown of the Fed’s latest move and its implications. Fed Cuts Rates but Signals Caution Ahead The Federal Open Market Committee voted  9–3  in favor of a quarter-point cut — the first time since 2019 that three officials dissented on a single decision. Two officials wanted no cut One official pushed for a bigger, half-point cut Fed Chair  Jerome Powell  said the central bank has likely done enough to ease pressure on the weakening labor market while still keeping monetary policy restrictive enough to cool inflation. “This further normalization should help stabilise the labour market whi...

  Key Takeaways Singapore market opens higher  with strong breadth. U.S. stocks climb  as traders price in a December Fed rate cut. AI stocks diverge:  Alphabet rallies; Nvidia faces selling pressure. Singapore inflation expected at 1.5% in 2026  due to domestic cost adjustments. Stocks to Watch:  Singtel, Nio, ThaiBev, Seatrium, ComfortDelGro, Coliwoo, NoonTalk. Singapore Market Opens on a Firm Note The Straits Times Index started Wednesday in positive territory, rising  0.47% to 4506.52 . Market breadth was healthy, with  91 advancers vs. 34 decliners , and total turnover reached  S$142.76 million  in early trade. Wall Street: Fed Cut Hopes Lift Sentiment, AI Plays Split U.S. equities finished higher on Tuesday as markets leaned into expectations that the Federal Reserve may lower rates in December. Futures traders now assign a  ~90% probability  of a 25bp cut. Alphabet  extended its AI-driven rally, reportedly boosted b...

The Federal Reserve will finally receive one of the most critical inflation readings it has been missing for weeks, as the Labor Department releases the  September Producer Price Index (PPI)  on Tuesday—data that has been stuck in limbo during the 43-day US government shutdown. The wholesale inflation report, due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, will offer policymakers a long-delayed look at price pressures building inside the supply chain. The fresh data is also a key input into the  September PCE inflation report , the Fed’s preferred gauge, which is now scheduled for Dec. 5—just days before the central bank’s rate-setting meeting on  Dec. 9–10 . Why This Matters For nearly six weeks, the Fed has been flying partially blind, unable to access core inflation statistics that inform its assessment of how sticky price pressures truly are. The arrival of both  PPI  and  PCE  before the December meeting is seen as a meaningful shift for markets, which have been r...

  Key takeaways San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly says she supports a  December  rate cut , arguing the labour market is now more fragile than inflation is dangerous. She sees the risk of a  “nonlinear” jump in unemployment  as higher and harder to manage than another inflation flare-up. Daly downplays tariff-driven inflation pressures and stresses the Fed should not delay cuts today just because it  might  need to hike again next year. Her stance aligns with New York Fed President John Williams’ recent comments and  has pushed market odds of a December cut back above 50% . The Fed remains  visibly split : doves worry about job losses; hawks warn inflation is still too high, especially in services. San Francisco Fed President  Mary Daly  has come out clearly in favour of  cutting rates at the Fed’s Dec 9–10 meeting , saying the bigger danger now is a sudden break in the labour market rather than an inflation surprise. Daly ...

Global stocks and bonds regained footing on Tuesday as investors brushed aside political turbulence in  France ,  Japan , and the  U.S. , focusing instead on the  Federal Reserve’s expected rate cuts  and sustained optimism around  AI-driven growth . Market Snapshot Global Equities:  Near record highs, supported by easing yields and the AMD–OpenAI multi-billion-dollar chip deal. Currencies:  Dollar up 0.3%, euro soft at  US$1.168 , yen weak past  150/USD  despite verbal intervention from Japan’s finance minister. Commodities:  Brent crude up  0.17%  to  US$65.58/bbl ; gold at new record  US$3,977/oz ; bitcoin just below record  US$126,223 . Regional Highlights Europe: STOXX 600  slipped  0.2% , while  CAC 40  lost  0.3%  as France’s PM Lecornu’s resignation deepened political uncertainty. French 10-year yield rose to  3.59% , reflecting investor caution. ECB tone remai...

 U.S. Budget Standoff Adds to Market Jitters Asian markets opened cautiously on Monday as investors weighed the risk of a potential  U.S. government shutdown . Without a funding deal, federal agencies could close from Wednesday — the same day new tariffs on  heavy trucks, pharmaceuticals, and furnishings  take effect. President Donald Trump is set to meet Congressional leaders later today to discuss extending funding. A prolonged shutdown could delay the release of key economic data, including September’s payrolls report, leaving the  Federal Reserve (Fed)  with limited visibility ahead of its October 29 meeting. Implications for Fed Policy Bank of America analysts noted that if the shutdown drags on, the Fed may need to rely on  private data sources  when setting policy. While the immediate economic hit is estimated at only  0.1 percentage point of GDP per week , longer disruptions or permanent federal layoffs could dent consumer confidence ...

Asian equities eased on Thursday as investors locked in gains from a strong quarter and positioned for month-end flows, while the Japanese yen slid to fresh lows against the euro and Swiss franc. Equities Consolidate After Strong Quarter MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped  0.2% , though it remains up  5.5% for September  and  9% for the quarter . Nikkei 225 : Rose 0.1%, extending quarterly gains of 13%. Chinese blue chips : Flat. Hang Seng Index : Down 0.2%. Analysts flagged possible  rebalancing flows  as month- and quarter-end approach. “Funds may need to sell US and Japanese indices, with German and Australian markets likely to benefit,” said Tony Sycamore of IG. Wall Street and Fed Outlook Overnight, Wall Street fell for a second straight session as investors booked profits from record highs. S&P 500 futures : Up 0.1%. Nasdaq futures : Up 0.1%. Markets still price in a  92% chance of a Fed rate cut in October , b...

Eight months into Donald Trump’s presidency, global markets have been hit with one shock after another — steep tariff threats, an attempted shakeup of the Federal Reserve, and even moves toward US-style state capitalism. Yet instead of tumbling, stocks are at fresh highs, bonds are steady, and growth has kept chugging along. For retail investors, the big question:  Is this resilience real, or just the calm before the storm? Why Markets Are Holding Up Economists at BNP Paribas point to a few key cushions: Easy financial conditions  – Rates are still low, liquidity remains strong. Healthy balance sheets  – Households and corporates aren’t overleveraged. AI-driven productivity  – Optimism around tech investment is offsetting risks. Lower energy costs  – Keeping inflation fears in check. On trade, the nightmare scenario of a global tariff war hasn’t materialized. Instead, the US struck  limited deals  with Europe and Asia. Tariffs are higher, but the costs...

  Key Takeaways Matt Shapiro of MWS Capital bought Netflix, Alphabet, and Nvidia at distressed prices earlier this year. He is now eyeing opportunities in  Microsoft, Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, Deere, Chevron, Boeing , and European luxury names. Shapiro is also adding  long-dated Treasurys, TIPS , and sees crypto as an eventual must-own on pullbacks. Matt Shapiro, a Chicago-based money manager overseeing  US$183 million at MWS Capital , is preparing for market pullbacks even as he remains bullish on “super companies” fueling S&P 500 profit growth. Earlier this year, Shapiro capitalized on what he called the first chance since 2022 to buy top-tier tech at bargain prices:  Netflix under $1,000, Alphabet at $165, and Nvidia at $100 . Those bets have since paid off, with Netflix closing at $1,200, Alphabet at $251, and Nvidia at $175 on Tuesday. Looking Ahead: Diversification Beyond Tech Shapiro told MarketWatch he is adding to  Microsoft and Apple , while ...

Key Takeaways Stephen Miran sworn in  as Fed governor, joining from Trump’s economic team. Lisa Cook remains in place  after court blocks Trump’s attempt to fire her. Fed expected to cut rates  25 bps to 4.00%-4.25% ; projections and Powell’s press conference closely watched. Investors pricing in  three cuts for 2025 , versus Fed’s earlier signal of two. Political tension over Fed independence lingers, but market reaction muted so far. What Happened The Fed began its two-day policy meeting under unusual circumstances: Stephen Miran, on leave from Trump’s White House, officially joined the Board of Governors, while Lisa Cook secured a temporary legal victory allowing her to remain after Trump sought to oust her. Markets are largely brushing aside the personnel drama, focusing instead on today’s  rate decision and updated economic projections . Powell’s press conference will be crucial in shaping expectations around the pace of cuts. Market Context Data shows...

Asian equities surged to fresh record peaks on Friday, tracking Wall Street’s rally as investors priced in a series of US Federal Reserve rate cuts that could ease borrowing costs worldwide. Record-Breaking Gains Across Asia Indices in  Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan  all touched new highs, buoyed by expectations of continued  AI-driven earnings growth . Japan’s  Nikkei rose 0.6% , extending its weekly gain to 3.7%, while South Korea’s market jumped 1.1% for a 5% weekly surge. China’s blue-chip index edged 0.2% higher, reaching its strongest level since early 2022. The broad  MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index  climbed 1.2%, while futures signaled European shares would follow suit, with  EUROSTOXX 50, FTSE, and DAX  futures all up 0.3%. Fed Rate Cuts in Focus The latest  US CPI report  came in largely in line with expectations, with core prices rising 0.3% in August and 3.1% year-on-year. Economists at Citi now forecast the Fed’s preferred...

Broad-Based Gains Across Majors Cryptocurrencies surged on Thursday, buoyed by investor expectations that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week.  Bitcoin (BTC)  jumped 1.46% to  $115,626.25 , climbing above the $116,000 level for the first time in nearly three weeks, while  Ethereum (ETH)  advanced 3.33% to  $4,516.40 , its highest in two weeks. Other major tokens also participated in the rally:  XRP  rose 1.95% to  $3.05 ,  Solana (SOL)  gained 2.96% to  $232.03 , and  Dogecoin (DOGE)  outperformed with a 5.88% jump to  $0.2610 . ETF Inflows and Market Sentiment Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw inflows of more than  $757 million  on Thursday — the largest since mid-July — further supporting risk appetite. The  Crypto Fear & Greed Index  flipped from “Neutral” to “Greed,” reflecting improved sentiment. Bitcoin’s market dominance slipped to  57.4% , whil...

Gold prices remain near record highs above  US$3,670/oz , supported by expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts, mounting geopolitical risks, and sustained central bank demand. Year-to-date, gold has surged more than  38% , marking its strongest annual gain since 2000. Fed Policy and Labour Market Weakness Fuel Rally The rally gained momentum after  Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish remarks at Jackson Hole , which raised bets for a  September rate cut . The weak August non-farm payrolls report — showing just  22,000 jobs added  and a jobless rate of  4.3%  — reinforced market conviction. CME data shows traders pricing in a  93.7% probability of a 25bps cut  next week, with a small chance of a deeper 50bps move. This has pressured the US dollar and bolstered gold’s appeal. Safe-Haven Demand Amid Rising Risks Beyond monetary policy, investors are seeking refuge in gold as  geopolitical tensions escalate : Political turmoil in Franc...

  Market Snapshot (07:33 ET) E-mini S&P 500 Futures (SEP5):  6,541.00 (+0.30%) E-mini Nasdaq 100 Futures (SEP5):  +0.24% E-mini Dow Futures (SEP5):  -0.17% Traders are positioning ahead of  US inflation data  due later this week, with futures mixed after recent payroll revisions bolstered expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Key Headlines Judge Blocks Trump From Removing Fed Governor Cook A judge issued a  temporary injunction  preventing President Trump from firing  Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook , who faces mortgage fraud allegations. The decision enables Cook to potentially participate in the  Sept. 16–17 FOMC meeting , a critical policy-setting session as markets price in rate cuts. TSMC August Sales Surge 33.8% YoY Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)  reported  August revenue of NT$335.77B (~US$11.09B) , a  33.8% increase YoY . Strong demand for  AI and high-performance computing chips  continues to...