MONEY MASTER

Asian markets traded mixed on Friday as Wall Street’s pullback and cooling commodity prices tempered sentiment ahead of key central bank meetings and U.S. earnings season. The  MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index  slipped 0.2%, paring weekly gains that have put the region on course for one of its strongest years in a decade.  Hong Kong  shares led losses, down 1.1%, while  South Korea’s KOSPI  rose 1.7% and  Australia  eased 0.1%. Regional strength this year has been underpinned by robust  AI hardware demand  and a surge in manufacturing orders linked to  U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff and industrial policies . Wall Street and Fed Outlook U.S. markets ended lower overnight, with traders booking profits in high-momentum trades including  gold, silver, crypto, and AI stocks , after a sharp multi-week rally. Futures pointed to a steadier tone, with  S&P 500 e-minis  up 0.2% in early Asia trade. The  10-year U...

Gold prices remained  steady  in early Asian trading Monday as investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of two major macro events —  U.S. trade developments  and the  European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy meeting . Gold Price Snapshot Spot gold : Up 0.1% to  $3,353.81/oz U.S. gold futures : Flat at  $3,360.50/oz Despite geopolitical tension and macro uncertainties, price action was limited as traders awaited clarity on both the  U.S.-EU trade front  and the  next policy signal from central banks . What’s Driving Sentiment? Trade Talks in Focus U.S. President  Donald Trump’s Aug 1 tariff deadline  is drawing closer. Commerce Secretary  Howard Lutnick  remains hopeful that a deal with the  European Union  can be reached in time — but markets are cautious. ECB Policy Outlook The  ECB is expected to pause rate cuts  this week and hold at  2.0% , as policymakers adopt a wait-and-see approach amid tar...

  Key Takeaways: Steel Production Cuts:  Several Chinese steel mills, including prominent players in Xinjiang, have started cutting production as part of a broader effort to address a supply glut and low profitability in the steel industry. Mysteel reported that four steelmakers in the region have reduced output by 10%, which began on March 25. Limited Impact on National Output:  Despite the cuts, the overall impact on China’s national steel production is minimal. Xinjiang’s steel output represented just 1.3% of the country’s total production last year. The reductions amount to about 2,000 tons of daily output in a nation that produces nearly 3 million tons of steel daily. Government’s Role in Industry Adjustment:  This production cut follows a pledge made by the Chinese government earlier this month to reduce steel output. The government aims to address the overproduction crisis that has been damaging the industry’s profitability and pushing for more sustainable pro...

Oil prices saw a slight drop on Thursday, impacted by expectations of increased global production and concerns over weak demand growth, particularly in China. Brent crude futures fell by 0.08% to $72.22 a barrel , while US WTI crude declined by 0.19% to $68.30 . The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised its 2024 global oil output forecast upward to 102.6 million barrels per day (bpd) and expects 104.7 million bpd in 2025. The EIA also raised its US output estimate to a record 13.23 million bpd this year. This increase in output estimates comes alongside OPEC’s lowered demand growth forecast of 1.82 million bpd for 2024 , down from 1.93 million bpd , citing weak demand from China, India, and other regions. The EIA’s demand growth estimate for 2024 remains below OPEC’s, at about 1 million bpd . The market awaits the IEA’s oil market report and the EIA’s US crude stockpiles data for additional guidance. Additionally, a stronger US dollar is exerting pressure on oil pr...

Crude palm oil (CPO) futures on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed lower on Tuesday, snapping a four-day winning streak, as a weaker export pace pressured prices, according to market sources. Palm oil trader David Ng highlighted that market sentiment was also affected by weaker soybean oil futures on the Chicago Board of Trade during Asian trading hours. “Support is at RM5,000 and resistance at RM5,200 a tonne,” he commented. At the end of trading: November 2024 fell RM46 to RM5,224 per tonne. December 2024 decreased RM157 to RM5,076 . January 2025 slid RM170 to RM5,026 . For later contracts: February 2025 dropped RM177 to RM4,960 per tonne. March 2025 and April 2025 both declined RM176 , closing at RM4,853 and RM4,727 per tonne, respectively. Trading volume surged to 131,965 lots from 79,094 on Monday, while open interest rose slightly to 239,980 contracts . The physical CPO price for November South narrowed RM80 to settle at RM5,200 per tonne.

China’s copper production is expanding rapidly, now expected to supply half of the world’s refined copper this year . This rapid growth in capacity is affecting profitability worldwide and could threaten the viability of plants from Chile to Europe . China, the world's largest copper consumer , has been on a construction spree, adding smelters to secure critical materials for the energy transition . However, this oversupply is creating fierce competition for raw materials, slashing margins across the global industry . Calls to limit China’s output and slow down new smelter construction have gone unheeded. If the expansion continues , copper refining could increasingly shift to China, raising concerns among western governments about China’s control over strategic resources . The issue will take center stage at Asia’s largest copper industry gathering in Shanghai this week . With more smelter capacity than global mine production, miners now hold negotiating power, which could reduc...

The yen hit a three-month low on Monday after Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lost its parliamentary majority , while oil prices tumbled following Israel's weekend airstrike on Iran, which avoided oil or nuclear targets. Japan's Nikkei index , which initially dropped, later rebounded by 1.6% , while the yen fell 0.5% to 153.3 per dollar , marking its weakest point in three months. The LDP and its junior coalition partner, Komeito , won only 215 lower-house seats in Sunday’s election, falling short of the 233 seats needed for a majority . This election result raised concerns that any new government could lean towards more dovish economic policies , further weakening the yen. Oil prices dropped sharply , with Brent crude futures falling 4.2% to trade as low as US$67.80 a barrel . Israel's airstrikes, which were in response to an Iranian missile attack, targeted missile factories and other sites near Tehran, without disrupting energy supplies . In broade...

  Louis Dreyfus Co BV has secured control of Australia's largest cotton processor , Namoi Cotton Ltd , after an eight-month battle with Olam Agri Holdings Ltd . This victory gives Dreyfus a stronger foothold in the Pan-Pacific cotton market , enhancing access to high-quality fibre from Australia, a region pivotal for manufacturers in Bangladesh and Vietnam . The takeover, valued at A$160 million ($107 million) , was a hard-fought contest with multiple bids, forcing Dreyfus to increase its final offer by 51% . While Olam pushed the price higher, Dreyfus’s existing 17% stake in Namoi gave it a strategic advantage throughout the process. Namoi, which operates about a quarter of Australia's cotton processing plants , began the takeover process to safeguard its future after being severely affected by drought and operational challenges. Namoi’s chairman, Tim Watson , noted that the company’s balance sheet was not strong enough to withstand major growth opportunities on its own. Wi...

China's record-breaking aluminum production is expected to continue for the remainder of the year, with national output projected to rise by 3% in the fourth quarter, reaching 11 million tons , according to Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) . This growth is supported by a surge in hydropower generation , ensuring that key production regions, such as Yunnan , will avoid the power shortages that have led to production cuts in recent years. In August , China's aluminum smelters produced a record 3.69 million tons , and while September may show a slight dip, production is expected to rebound to 3.72 million tons in December , SMM reported. Despite a slowing economy , demand for aluminum has remained strong due to the metal’s increased usage in clean energy applications such as electric vehicles (EVs) and solar power systems . Aluminum production is highly energy-intensive , but hydropower , particularly in Yunnan, has seen a 22% increase in output in the first eight months of 2024, ...

OPEC has reduced its oil demand growth forecasts for the third month in a row, signaling a belated recognition of the slowdown in global fuel consumption . The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries now expects oil consumption to increase by 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd) , roughly 2% in 2024, which is 106,000 bpd less than previously forecast. The revision was attributed to updated data and slightly lower expectations in certain regions. Despite the downgrades, OPEC's forecasts remain more optimistic than those of Wall Street banks and other trading houses . OPEC’s estimates also stand at the upper end of projections made by Saudi Aramco and are nearly double the growth expected by the International Energy Agency (IEA) . OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia , is delaying plans to restore 2.2 million bpd of halted production until December, citing concerns about slowing growth in China and rising supplies from the Americas. Market observers like JPMorgan Chase & C...

The intense battle for control of Korea Zinc Co, Ltd , the world’s largest zinc smelter, is nearing a critical juncture as investors face a deadline to decide on competing offers. Investors have until the end of Monday to accept a takeover offer of 830,000 won (US$2,629) per share from a consortium led by Korea Zinc’s largest shareholder, Young Poong Corp , and MBK Partners , a prominent private equity firm in North Asia. The consortium has stated there will be no further increases to the offer. However, an alternative bid has emerged from Korea Zinc’s chairman, Choi Yun-Beom , supported by buyout firm Bain Capital , with a higher buyback offer of 890,000 won per share , a 7% premium, valuing the company at 18.4 trillion won (US$13.6 billion) . Despite the higher bid, investor skepticism remains , as Korea Zinc's stock has traded below this level, closing at 794,000 won on Friday. The outcome of this succession feud will have far-reaching implications beyond South Korea. Korea Z...

Britain’s natural gas production is falling more rapidly than anticipated, sparking concerns over rising dependence on imports, according to Offshore Energies UK (OEUK) , an industry group urging government intervention to boost investment. Production has dropped 13% this year through August, with a similar rate of decline expected for the entirety of 2024. This is worse than the 10% decline initially forecast for the UK’s aging North Sea basin , said Ross Dornan , market intelligence manager at OEUK. "There is not a huge amount of new production coming through," Dornan added. OEUK is seeking support in the Autumn Budget on Oct. 30 to stimulate domestic energy investment, especially after the previous government’s windfall tax on oil and gas profits during the energy crisis. The Labour Party plans to increase this levy further, which OEUK warns could result in an 80% slump in oil and gas investment over the next five years. UK gas output has fallen by more than half i...

China’s runaway stock rally came to a halt on Wednesday, with commodities struggling as investors tempered their expectations for a robust Chinese economic recovery. This pressure spread across global shares , causing concerns about sustained growth. China's benchmark indexes saw their largest daily losses since the start of the pandemic. Shanghai stocks dropped 6.6% , and blue-chips fell 7.1% , ending a 10-day winning streak. The pullback followed a news conference by China's National Development and Reform Commission , which failed to deliver significant new stimulus details. Investor attention is now shifting to China's finance ministry , set to hold a news conference on Saturday , expected to unveil fiscal stimulus plans . Markets anticipate a spending package between two and 10 trillion yuan (US$280 billion to US$1.4 trillion) to boost the economy. Despite the slowdown, some market players remain optimistic. Alexandre Marquis of Unigestion pointed out that domesti...

  Oil prices soared by more than a dollar on Wednesday as concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East raised fears of potential disruptions to crude output from the region. This spike follows Iran's largest military strike against Israel to date. Brent futures rose by $1 , or 1.36% , to $74.56 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased by $1.07 , or 1.53% , reaching $70.90 as of 0330 GMT. On Tuesday, both crude benchmarks had surged over 5% amid growing geopolitical anxieties. According to Priyanka Sachdeva, a senior market analyst at Phillip Nova , while oil markets were initially focused on a weakening global economic outlook affecting fuel demand, "the scale quickly turned towards fears of oil supply disruptions in the Middle East after Iran fired ballistic missiles at Israel." Iran announced on Wednesday that its missile assault on Israel was concluded, barring any further provocations. In response, Israel and the US vowed retaliati...

Brazil’s wildfires and drought, which have disrupted the global sugar market , are putting increased pressure on Thailand and India to fill the supply gap. However, both countries are facing their own challenges, raising concerns about further instability in the market. The recent spike in sugar futures , reaching the highest levels since February, reflects fears over crop damage in Brazil, the world’s top sugar producer and exporter. This disruption is pushing up costs for consumer goods, such as soft drinks and candy, while traders are now focused on the output prospects of Thailand and India, both major sugar producers. While Thailand, the world’s second-largest sugar exporter, is expected to see a rebound in sugar production in the 2024-25 season, September floods have highlighted the weather risks that could delay the harvest if heavy rains persist. In India, the second-largest sugar grower, government support for ethanol production means sugar export restrictions are like...

Oil prices have steadied after a sharp sell-off driven by intensifying concerns over global demand, pushing Brent crude below $70 per barrel for the first time in over two years. The benchmark has dropped nearly 20% this quarter, reflecting fears of slowing economic growth in major consumers such as the US and China, at a time when supply remains robust. Key Takeaways: Demand Concerns Weigh Heavily on Oil Prices : The recent drop in Brent crude prices, now below $70 per barrel, is primarily due to concerns over weakened demand in the US and China, the world's largest oil consumers. Market indicators, including the futures curve, suggest an increasingly less tight supply-demand balance, contributing to the rapid decline. OPEC+ and Market Response : In response to the market turmoil, OPEC+ has delayed plans to increase production, although there is concern that these extra barrels could still enter the market by 2025. Analysts, such as Warren Patterson of ING, suggest that OPEC+ need...

Soybean futures climbed on Monday as dry weather forecasts in Brazil indicate further delays in the start of the planting season for the new soybean crop. Brazil, the world's largest producer of soybeans, is facing ongoing dryness in key regions, which has propped up soybean prices in Chicago. Key Takeaways: Weather-Driven Planting Delays : Dry conditions in Center-West Brazil have pushed back the start of the soybean planting season. According to StoneX chief commodities economist Arlan Suderman, planting will be delayed until the rains return, with forecast models suggesting this may not occur in September. Impact on Soybean Prices : The delay in Brazil’s soybean planting has bolstered soybean futures, supported by modest seasonal buying from China and concerns over continued dryness in key planting areas. Market Uncertainty : The weather-driven delays in Brazil add uncertainty to the global soybean supply, with the potential for further price increases if the dry conditions pers...

Iron ore prices have declined sharply, heading toward their worst weekly performance since March, as China's struggling steel market shows no signs of recovery. Demand for steel remains weak due to the ongoing real estate slowdown in China, and iron ore is experiencing continued downward pressure as a result. Key Takeaways: Persistently Weak Demand in China’s Steel Market : With little improvement in steel demand, Chinese steel mills have limited capacity to resume production. The country's prolonged real estate downturn has significantly weakened steel consumption, overshadowing gains from other sectors such as exports. Consequently, the iron ore market is grappling with an oversupply issue. Significant Declines in Iron Ore Prices : Singapore iron ore futures fell to $90.50 per tonne, marking their lowest level since 2022. The futures were on track for a 10.4% decline this week, reflecting market sentiment amid the challenging conditions in China’s steel sector. Impact on Spot...

Citigroup Inc. expects that uncertainty surrounding the upcoming US presidential election in November will limit gains for metals, dampening global risk appetite and potentially delaying government stimulus efforts in China. According to Citi analysts, including Tom Mulqueen, a more favorable environment for metals pricing may emerge in late Q4 2024 or early 2025, once the election uncertainty is resolved. Key Takeaways: Short-Term Constraints on Metals Prices : Citi forecasts that metals like copper and aluminum will remain subdued in the near term due to election-related uncertainties and concerns over global demand, particularly from China. This outlook comes amid a recent downturn in metals, with copper prices falling 1.7% week-on-week and aluminum returning to its level for the year. Factors Influencing Future Recovery : The bank maintains its three-month price targets of $9,500 per ton for copper and $2,500 per ton for aluminum, predicting that factors such as Federal Reserve rat...

Aluminium prices extended their decline from a two-month high as concerns over China's demand recovery persisted, coupled with ample global supplies. The metal has dropped nearly 4% since Tuesday's close, reflecting the broader trend in industrial metals, which are also facing downward pressure due to a weakened risk appetite in financial markets. Key Takeaways: Aluminium Price Decline: Aluminium has fallen almost 4% since Tuesday, driven by concerns over China's sluggish demand recovery and sufficient global supplies, leading to a widening discount in spot prices. Broader Impact on Industrial Metals: The weakening of risk appetite in financial markets, exacerbated by underwhelming earnings from tech companies, contributed to declines in other industrial metals like tin and copper. Market Outlook: Analysts predict further declines in aluminium prices, citing elevated supply levels and limited downstream demand recovery in China as key factors influencing the market.