MONEY MASTER

Despite concerns over inflation due to Trump's renewed tariff push, the Federal Reserve may still press ahead with interest rate cuts —  if the labor market continues to cool . All Eyes on June CPI This Tuesday’s release of the  June Consumer Price Index (CPI)  is expected to show a  0.3% increase , marking the most significant monthly rise since the US ramped up tariffs earlier this year. If forecasts hold, the  core inflation rate  — which strips out volatile food and energy prices — would tick up to  3% annually , drifting further from the Fed’s 2% target. But here’s the catch:  tariff-related inflation has yet to show major bite . Why Inflation Hasn't Spiked (Yet) Economists argue that several factors have blunted inflation so far: Pre-tariff inventory stocking  by importers The White House’s  partial tariff rollbacks Falling oil prices  (down 14% YTD) A  cooling housing market , with rent increases at pre-pandemic levels W...

Key Takeaways: Market Positioning Ahead of Jobs Report:  With markets at near all-time highs, the immediate impact of the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report may be muted due to the holiday-shortened trading week. Sector-Specific Employment Trends:  Anticipated job increases in government, healthcare, and technology sectors provide strategic investment insights. Impact of Federal Reserve Policies:  Recent employment data and the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates suggest limited chances of a rate cut in the near term. Monitoring Unemployment Claims:  The latest jobless claims data indicate mixed signals, with overall unemployment benefits increasing, hinting at underlying labor market dynamics. Sector Vulnerabilities:  Investors should remain cautious about sectors vulnerable to inflation and high interest rates, such as consumer discretionary and retail. Market Context and Jobs Report Implications: As the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) prepares to release t...

Fairly valued Kimlun’s JV with Zecon has clinched the first Pan Borneo Highway Sarawak package for 2016 worth MYR1.46b. This lifted its orderbook by 37% to MYR1.6b. Further job wins could come from other Klang Valley highways while precast orders could be boosted by MRT projects. We raise our 2016-18 EPS estimates by 8%-25% after imputing higher job win forecasts. Our new TP is MYR1.50 (+8%). HOLD; positive sentiment ahead of major infra work awards in the sector could lift valuations further. Increasing orderbook by 37% Kimlun’s 30% owned JV with Zecon (ZEC MK, Non Rated) has won a contract from Lebuhraya Borneo Utara (Non-Listed) for the Pan Borneo Highway Sarawak worth MYR1.46b. The total works are expected to complete in 48 months by 1Q20. This increased its outstanding orderbook by 37% to MYR1.6b. Assuming a pretax profit margin of 5%, we forecast a net profit contribution of MYR16m (5.5sen EPS) into 2020. Diversifying into infrastructure jobs This job win sig...

A stronger than expected October jobs report boost the chances of a December rate hike and Wall Street dropped slightly lower on Friday to reflect that. Out of the 10 major sectors in S&P, nine were lower, with the interest rate sensitive utilities sector's 3% decline being the worst while the financial sectors was only up by 1% and the only gainer. S&P 500 Index dropped slightly on Friday The Labor Department's report showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 271,000 in October, beating the 180,000 expected. Data for August and September were revised to show 12,000 more jobs on average were created than previously reported. The unemployment rate fell to 5.0%, the lowest since April 2008, from 5.1% in September. The jobless rate is now at a level many Fed officials view as consistent with full employment. "I think it's good news — it's good news for the economy, eventually the market will take it as good news," said Sean Lynch, co-h...