Malaysia’s Leading Index (LI) signaled slower economic momentum in July, with annual growth dipping 0.5% year-on-year to 114.3 points, according to the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM).
Drivers of the Decline
The weaker reading was weighed down by:
Real Imports of Other Basic Precious & Non-Ferrous Metals: –16.3% YoY.
Bursa Malaysia Industrial Index: –13.4% YoY.
On a monthly basis, however, the LI rose 0.5% MoM, rebounding from June’s 0.3% decline, thanks to stronger contributions from semiconductor imports, new company registrations, and approved housing units.
Coincident Index Shows Stronger Current Activity
The Coincident Index (CI), which tracks current economic performance, climbed 2.2% YoY in July, faster than June’s 1.7%. It reached 129.7 points, supported by broad-based improvements, particularly:
Real Contributions to EPF: +5.4% YoY.
Industrial Production Index: +0.3% MoM.
Manufacturing sector indicators — employment, salaries, and capacity utilization each rose 0.2% MoM.
Outlook: Growth to Moderate
The smoothed long-term trend shows the LI remains below 100.0 points, reinforcing expectations of slower momentum ahead.
External trade remains under pressure due to softer demand from major trading partners.
Domestic consumption is expected to cushion growth, supported by:
Low and stable inflation.
Rising wages.
Strong tourism recovery.
Recent monetary policy easing.
Key Takeaway
While Malaysia’s external-facing sectors face headwinds, household spending and services should provide resilience, keeping the economy on track for modest expansion despite global uncertainties.
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