MONEY MASTER

Shares of  PETRONAS Chemicals  rose after a return to profitability in 1Q, though analysts remain  cautious on the sustainability of the recovery . Share Price Rises on Earnings Turnaround The stock gained  4.2% to RM5.68 , extending a strong rally of nearly  92% since late February . The rebound was driven by: Higher petrochemical prices Improved  product spreads Stronger  sales volumes However, these gains were largely supported by  supply disruptions linked to Middle East tensions , rather than structural demand recovery. Analysts Divided on Outlook Sentiment remains mixed among research houses: 9 ‘buy’ ,  9 ‘hold’ ,  1 ‘sell’  recommendation Average target price: RM6.08 (~7% upside) While earnings forecasts have been revised higher, many analysts maintain  neutral stances  due to lingering risks. Operational and Demand Risks Persist Key concerns highlighted by analysts include: Lower utilisation rates  expected in...

Oil markets are expected to remain elevated despite a temporary ceasefire in the Middle East, as  structural supply disruptions continue to constrain global energy flows . Supply Damage Keeps Oil Prices Elevated According to UOB Global Economics and Markets Research,  Brent crude is likely to hover around US$100 per barrel in the near term , even after a  two-week ceasefire . The reason:  extensive damage to energy infrastructure  across the region. Key assets including  refineries, pipelines, and ports  have been impacted Repairs could take  months or even years Supply chains remain  severely disrupted Brent previously surged to  US$119.50 in late March , before easing to around  US$93.69  following ceasefire news. Strait of Hormuz Bottleneck Persists The  Strait of Hormuz , which handles roughly  20% of global oil and LNG flows , remains a major constraint. Hundreds of  oil tankers are stranded  on both si...

Oil prices extended their rally, climbing to the  highest levels since 2022 , as escalating geopolitical tensions and a  US ultimatum over the Strait of Hormuz  heightened fears of a prolonged global energy disruption. Oil Prices Spike Amid Escalation Risk Global benchmark oil surged: Brent crude rose above US$113 per barrel , marking a  fifth consecutive day of gains WTI crude approached US$100 per barrel Since the conflict began in late February,  Brent has rallied over 50% , reflecting severe concerns over  energy supply disruptions . Strait of Hormuz Crisis at the Core The latest surge follows a  48-hour ultimatum by US President Donald Trump , demanding Iran reopen the  Strait of Hormuz , a critical route for  ~20% of global oil supply . Iran has responded with threats to: Fully close the waterway Target  energy, infrastructure, and regional assets With maritime traffic largely halted, oil producers in the Gulf are being forced to...

Rakuten  Trade  expects  foreign  investors  to  return  to  Malaysian  equities  as  the  ringgit  strengthens  amid  prolonged  Middle  East  tensions  and  elevated  oil  prices. Foreign  Holdings  Stable  Despite  Outflows According  to  Rakuten,  foreign  shareholding  on  Bursa  Malaysia  has  remained  relatively  steady  despite  earlier  outflows —  suggesting: Long- term  investors  have  largely  held  positions Short- term  traders  drove  recent  selling Key  Point:  Foreign  ownership  hasn’t  meaningfully  collapsed,  indicating  underlying  confidence  in  Malaysian  assets. Year- to- date,  foreign  funds  recorded  net  inflows  of...

Global inflation is set to accelerate as the Iran conflict disrupts energy markets, though economists expect economic growth to remain broadly resilient — for now. A Bloomberg survey shows rising concern that higher oil and gas prices will spill over into consumer costs worldwide. Inflation Set to Accelerate According to the Bloomberg survey: Half of respondents expect inflation to rise faster in the eurozone A similar share foresee higher inflation in the US Nearly 40% expect faster price growth in China The projected increase ranges between  0.3 to 0.9 percentage points above prior forecasts . Key Point: The Iran conflict is expected to lift global inflation through energy-driven price pressures. Energy Shock at the Core The main inflationary driver is oil and gas. Roughly  20% of global seaborne oil supply  passes through the Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint that has effectively stalled amid the conflict. Higher energy prices could trigger: Rising airfares Incr...

Oil prices climbed on Monday as optimism grew that the  U.S. government shutdown —now in its 40th day—could soon end, potentially boosting demand in the world’s largest oil consumer. Brent crude  rose  0.61% to US$64.02 a barrel , while  U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI)  gained  0.72% to US$60.18 by 0751 GMT. The U.S. Senate is preparing to vote on a funding measure that would reopen the federal government, restoring pay to  800,000 furloughed workers  and reviving key programs. Analysts say the move could lift  consumer confidence and energy demand , especially in transportation and manufacturing. “The imminent reopening is a welcome boost... This should also help improve risk sentiment across markets,” said  Tony Sycamore , market analyst at IG, who expects WTI to rebound toward  US$62 per barrel . However, gains were capped by concerns over  rising global oil supplies . The  OPEC+ alliance  agreed to a small outp...

Oil prices extended losses on Friday, heading for their  third consecutive monthly decline , as a  stronger US dollar  and  ample global supply  outweighed concerns about sanctions on Russian crude. Market Snapshot Brent crude:  US$64.67/bbl (–0.5%) WTI crude:  US$60.22/bbl (–0.6%) Monthly performance:  Both benchmarks down about  3% in October Analysts said the  Federal Reserve’s cautious tone  on further rate cuts strengthened the dollar, dampening investor appetite for commodities priced in the greenback. “A stronger USD weighed on investor appetite across the commodities complex,” ANZ analysts noted. Supply Outpaces Demand Oil markets remain under pressure from  rising production by major producers , including  OPEC+  members and the  United States , with supply growth expected to  outpace demand  this year. OPEC+  is leaning toward a  modest output boost in December , according to sources...

In an interview with Reuters, Kaabi said the current version of the  CSDDD , adopted in 2024, poses a major compliance risk for  QatarEnergy , the state-owned oil and gas giant. The directive requires large corporations operating within the EU to identify and address  human rights and environmental issues  within their supply chains—or face heavy fines. Under the law, penalties could reach  up to 5% of a company’s global revenue  if its climate transition plans fail to align with the  Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target . Kaabi warned that this could make it  impossible for QatarEnergy to justify doing business in the EU , including supplying LNG and other products, due to the “overreaching nature” of the regulation. “We have been engaging with the European Commission and every EU Member State for almost a year now on CSDDD,” he said. “But so far, there has been no response.” EU Market Risks and LNG Supply Implications Qatar currently provides  12...

Key Takeaway:  Crude oil prices rose after OPEC+ agreed to a  smaller-than-expected production increase  for October, while renewed concerns about Russian supply amid potential new sanctions added further support. Market Snapshot Brent crude : +0.33% to  US$66.24/bbl WTI crude : +0.39% to  US$62.50/bbl OPEC+ Decision OPEC+ to raise  October output by 137,000 bpd , far below: ~555,000 bpd in  Aug–Sep 411,000 bpd in  Jun–Jul Move signals a  partial reversal of cuts  initially planned to stay until end-2026. Analysts had expected larger hikes, making this decision a  supply-side surprise  supportive of prices. Russia Sanctions Risk Prices underpinned by speculation of  new sanctions on Russia  after the largest air attack on Ukraine since the war began. U.S. President Donald Trump signaled readiness for a  second phase of restrictions . The EU’s top sanctions official met U.S. counterparts in Washington, raising the...

 Key Takeaway Oil prices edged higher Monday after Opec+ agreed to  raise production at a slower pace starting October . The move offers short-term support for crude after last week’s losses, but rising supply and weaker demand outlooks keep pressure on the market. Market Snapshot Brent crude:  +0.5% to  $65.84 /barrel WTI crude:  +0.5% to  $62.17 /barrel Both benchmarks lost over  3% last week , with Friday’s U.S. jobs data denting demand expectations. Opec+ Decision Opec+ (Saudi Arabia, Russia, and allies) will  raise output by 137,000 bpd from October . This is much smaller than the  555,000 bpd hikes in August and September  and  411,000 bpd in June and July . Saudi Arabia is pushing to  regain market share , but the slower pace reflects concerns over a potential oil glut in winter. Market Drivers Supply relief:  Smaller-than-expected increase eased market fears, providing a modest price rebound. Geopolitical risk: ...

Earnings Snapshot Petronas Dagangan Bhd (KL:PETDAG)  posted a  3.9% YoY decline in 2QFY2025 net profit  to  RM265.5 million , as retail weakness overshadowed growth in its commercial and convenience businesses. Net Profit:  RM265.5m (–3.9% YoY) Revenue:  RM9.07b (–7.9% YoY) Dividend:  22 sen/share (vs. 20 sen last year), bringing  1H25 payout to 42 sen/share  (vs. 38 sen last year) 1H25 Results:  Net profit  +11.3% YoY to RM559m , despite revenue falling  5.6% to RM18.16b Shares gained  0.5% to RM22.92  by midday Monday, valuing PETDAG at  RM22.8 billion . YTD, the stock has risen  18.6% , outperforming the broader Bursa benchmark. Segmental Performance Retail:  Weaker gross profit, hit by: Less favourable  MOPS (Mean of Platts Singapore)  pricing trends. Softer demand for diesel & Mogas. Normalisation of travel patterns (boosted in Q1 by festive holidays). Commercial:  Higher profit,...

Earnings Snapshot Petronas Gas Bhd (KL:PETGAS)  reported a  2.3% YoY decline in 2QFY2025 net profit  to  RM450.2 million  (22.75 sen per share), weighed down by softer revenue and higher expenses. Revenue:  RM1.59 billion (–3.5% YoY) Net Profit:  RM450.19 million (–2.3% YoY) Dividend:  16 sen/share (RM316.6m), ex-date Sept 12, payable Sept 22 1H25 Performance:  Net profit RM919m (vs. RM926m a year earlier), revenue RM3.18b (–2.5% YoY) Shares were steady at  RM18.96  before the results announcement, valuing the company at  RM37.5 billion . Key Drivers Lower Revenue:  Decline in gas transportation earnings due to tighter regulated margins. Higher Costs:  Expenses linked to  pipeline restoration  after the April Putra Heights explosion. Tariff & Tax Impact:  Restructuring of electricity tariffs and an expanded sales & service tax (SST) expected to further pressure operating margins going forward. O...

Shell plc posted a  second-quarter adjusted net income of US$4.26 billion , down 32% from last year but above analyst expectations of US$3.74 billion. The results come after a turbulent quarter marked by US tariffs, Opec+ production shifts, and a brief Middle East conflict that drove crude prices 10% lower. Key Highlights: Adjusted Net Income:  US$4.26B (vs. US$6.29B YoY; beat est. US$3.74B) Cash Flow from Operations:  US$12.3B (consensus: US$10.1B) Share Buybacks:  Maintained at US$3.5B for the quarter Net Debt:  US$43.2B (up from US$41.5B in Q1) Structural Cost Cuts:  Additional US$800M in H1; US$3.9B since 2022 Market Impact: Shell’s London-listed shares rose  2.7%  following the earnings beat and continued commitment to buybacks. CEO Commentary: CEO  Wael Sawan  credited disciplined cost-cutting and operational reliability, saying,  “That’s 15 quarters in a row delivering US$3B+ per quarter in buybacks — that’s key for us.” Howe...

Investors eyeing the oil and gas (O&G) sector for bargains might want to pump the brakes.  Kenanga Investment Bank warns it’s  too early to bottom-fish , as earnings downgrades are likely ahead — especially for upstream service providers heading into FY2026. Despite recent price dips across the board, the firm urges a  wait-and-see approach  until there’s more clarity on global energy dynamics and Petronas-related developments. Weak Outlook for Upstream & Petrochemicals Kenanga sees a  sluggish stretch ahead  for local upstream O&G players. Their concern? The  lack of catalysts  to drive Brent crude prices higher in the near term. Even geopolitical tensions aren’t pushing prices sustainably higher, unlike previous rallies sparked by shocks like the Arab Spring. In parallel, the  petrochemical segment continues to struggle , stuck in a prolonged downtrend with product prices stagnating around  US$1,000/mt  since Q4 2024. ...

Petronas’ first bond issuance in four years is expected to see significant investor demand, potentially lowering borrowing costs for the state-owned oil and gas company, according to CreditSights, a research arm of Fitch. Key Points: Attractive Pricing Expected : The new senior unsecured bonds, which will mature in five, 10, and 30 years, were initially marketed at 1.20%, 1.30%, and 1.50% above US Treasury yields. However, CreditSights anticipates the final pricing will be around 37.5 basis points tighter than the initial price guidance, reducing the overall borrowing cost. Strong Investor Interest : The pricing tightening indicates strong demand for Petronas’ bonds, as investors show confidence in the company's financial stability. This would lead to further spread tightening in the secondary market, with additional narrowing expected for the five-year, 10-year, and 30-year bonds. Capital Raise Plan : Petronas aims to raise up to US$3 billion (RM13.27 billion) through this bond is...