U.S. Budget Standoff Adds to Market Jitters
Asian markets opened cautiously on Monday as investors weighed the risk of a potential U.S. government shutdown. Without a funding deal, federal agencies could close from Wednesday — the same day new tariffs on heavy trucks, pharmaceuticals, and furnishings take effect.
President Donald Trump is set to meet Congressional leaders later today to discuss extending funding. A prolonged shutdown could delay the release of key economic data, including September’s payrolls report, leaving the Federal Reserve (Fed) with limited visibility ahead of its October 29 meeting.
Implications for Fed Policy
Bank of America analysts noted that if the shutdown drags on, the Fed may need to rely on private data sources when setting policy. While the immediate economic hit is estimated at only 0.1 percentage point of GDP per week, longer disruptions or permanent federal layoffs could dent consumer confidence and payroll growth.
Markets currently price a 90% chance of a Fed rate cut in October and about a 65% probability of another in December.
Regional Market Moves
Japan’s Nikkei: -0.7% (up 6% in September overall)
South Korea’s KOSPI: +1.2% (up 6.3% this month)
MSCI Asia ex-Japan: +0.4% (nearly +4% for September)
S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures: +0.2%
Euro Stoxx 50 futures: +0.3%
Despite the uncertainty, analysts expect quarter-end buying to provide some support, as the fourth quarter has historically been favorable for equities, with the S&P 500 gaining 74% of the time.
Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities
U.S. 10Y Treasury yield: 4.17% (steady after upbeat U.S. data last week)
Dollar index: 98.13, firm after a 1% rally last week
Euro: US$1.1708
Yen: ¥149.49 (off September lows of ¥145.50)
Gold held just below record highs at US$3,764/oz, while oil prices softened after Kurdistan restarted crude exports to Türkiye for the first time in 2½ years.
Brent crude: -0.8% to US$69.57
WTI crude: -0.9% to US$65.14
Opec+ is expected to approve another production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day at its meeting next Sunday.
Investor takeaway: Asia markets remain cautious as Washington’s budget showdown adds fresh uncertainty. With shutdown risks, new tariffs, and a Fed rate decision ahead, volatility could rise into October despite historically supportive seasonality.
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