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Quick Summary Europe’s new car registrations fell 3.5% in January France and Germany led the decline EV sales rose 14% , plug-in hybrids jumped nearly 30% Chinese brands now account for  ~11% of electrified car sales Overall Market: Growth Streak Ends European new-vehicle registrations dropped to  961,382 units in January , breaking a six-month growth streak, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association. Biggest drags: Germany  (Europe’s largest car market, ~22% share) France Meanwhile: Sales rose in the  UK and Italy Weak consumer confidence, high car prices and rising unemployment — especially in Germany — are weighing on demand. EVs Remain the Bright Spot Despite the broader decline, electrified vehicles continued gaining traction: Fully electric vehicles (EVs): +14% YoY Plug-in hybrids: +~30% YoY EV sales grew strongly in: Germany Italy Spain France In the UK, hybrid sales surged nearly 50%, though battery-only EVs remained flat. Key takeaway: ...

What Changes / What Doesn’t Tesla ’s Q4 earnings are not about whether the quarter was “good” or “bad”. They are about  whether the valuation framework investors are using still holds . At current prices, Tesla is  not valued as a car company . It is valued as a  future AI + energy platform  with optionality priced in  today . This earnings call tests  how much of that optionality remains credible . What DOESN’T Change After This Earnings 1.  Deliveries Are No Longer the Core Debate Q4 deliveries down ~16% YoY are already fully discounted Volume volatility is now treated as  background noise The market has accepted that Tesla is past its hyper-growth auto phase No re-rating happens just because deliveries are weak — unless margins collapse. 2.  AI / Robotaxi Is Still a Forward Option, Not a Cash Flow Driver Robotaxi, FSD and Optimus contribute  near-zero earnings  in 2026–27 models Bulls and bears already agree on this fact The disa...

  Elon Musk has once again pushed the boundaries of Tesla’s long-term vision, saying the company’s humanoid  Optimus  robots could be available to the public by  end-2026 , once reliability, safety and functionality reach acceptable levels. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, the CEO of  Tesla  reiterated his view that humanoid robots could eventually account for  as much as 80% of Tesla’s valuation , implying a multi-trillion-dollar opportunity. Musk has previously suggested Optimus could add  US$20 trillion  to Tesla’s market value over time — a claim that has kept investors divided between those viewing it as visionary optionality and those seeing it as excessive narrative risk. Where Optimus Actually Stands Today Despite the bold rhetoric, Optimus remains in an  early deployment phase : Robots are currently performing  simple, repetitive tasks inside Tesla factories More complex industrial use is expected later this y...

Key Takeaways China and Canada agree to lower tariffs on EVs and canola Canada cuts EV tariffs to 6.1% for up to 49,000 Chinese vehicles China to slash canola tariffs to ~15% from ~85% Deal offers near-term gains for Canadian agriculture US warns agreement may complicate USMCA negotiations Trade diversification, not US replacement, is Canada’s aim China and Canada are taking concrete steps toward closer economic cooperation, agreeing to  lower tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) and Canadian canola , as both countries seek stability amid rising US trade uncertainty. Following a meeting between  Xi Jinping  and Canadian Prime Minister  Mark Carney  in Beijing, leaders described the relationship as a  “new strategic partnership.”  The move comes as the global trading system faces growing fragmentation and protectionist pressure. Canada will allow  up to 49,000 Chinese-made EVs  to enter its market at a  reduced tariff rate of 6.1% ,...

Shares of  BYD Co Ltd (HKG:1211)  fell sharply on Friday after China’s top electric vehicle (EV) maker reported a  33% drop in third-quarter net profit  and weaker-than-expected revenue, underscoring the challenges even the industry leader faces in a highly competitive market. Earnings Miss Triggers Stock Selloff BYD’s Hong Kong-listed shares  tumbled as much as 6.4%  in early trading following the results released late Thursday. Net income:  7.82 billion yuan (US$1.1 billion), down  33% YoY Revenue:  194.98 billion yuan, down  3% YoY  and missing analyst forecasts of 216 billion yuan Gross margin:  17.6%, down from 21.9% a year ago but up from 16.3% in Q2 “Neutral to slightly negative” reactions are expected, according to  Morgan Stanley , which estimated vehicle-unit profit at  6,100 yuan , below its 6,500 yuan projection. Losing Momentum in China’s Price War Once the undisputed market leader, BYD is now  losin...

Key Takeaway Chinese battery giant  CATL will begin production at its new Hungary plant within 4–5 months , earlier than its previous 2025-end target. With  €7.3 billion invested , the facility is set to become CATL’s largest in Europe, supplying automakers like BMW, Stellantis, and Volkswagen. Details of the Expansion Location:  Debrecen, Hungary Investment:  €7.3 billion (US$8.55B / RM36.08B) Scale: Annual capacity of  100 GWh , with a planned  9,000-strong workforce Timeline: Production expected to start  late 2025 or early 2026 Comparison: The plant will  dwarf CATL’s Thuringia facility in Germany This project underscores CATL’s aggressive push to strengthen its footprint in Europe. Market Context CATL commands a  38% global EV battery market share in 2024 , up from 36% in 2023 (SNE Research). The company raised  US$4.6 billion  in its May Hong Kong IPO to help fund this project. Despite  sluggish EV demand in Europe , CATL...

Key Takeaway U.S. auto sales got a strong boost in August thanks to record electric vehicle (EV) demand, but the momentum looks temporary as federal tax credits worth $7,500 expire at the end of September. Automakers are already bracing for a slowdown with layoffs, production cuts, and shifting strategies. EV Sales Surge in August Overall U.S. new-vehicle sales rose  3.7% YoY  in August to an annualized rate of 16.4 million units. EVs and plug-in hybrids grabbed  11% market share , up from the usual 8%, as buyers rushed to lock in federal credits before they expire Sept. 30. GM hit a record  with 21,000 EVs sold across Chevrolet, Cadillac, and GMC. Hyundai’s EV sales jumped 72% , led by the Ioniq 5. Honda’s Prologue SUV soared nearly 80% , its best month yet. Ford EV sales rose 19% , with the Mustang Mach-E hitting a record. Tesla slipped 6.7% , facing more competition and consumer pushback tied to Elon Musk’s politics. Automakers Brace for Post-Credit Drop GM  ...

  Key Takeaways The European Commission has proposed eliminating tariffs on US industrial goods as part of last month’s EU–US trade deal. In return, Washington reduced tariffs on EU-built cars to  15% from 27.5% , effective Aug 1. The move avoids a full-blown trade war, though the agreement remains asymmetric, with the EU making broader concessions. EU proposals also include limited agricultural openings, while maintaining protection on sensitive sectors like beef and poultry. Deal Structure The framework deal was struck on  July 27  between US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The EU accepted a  broad 15% tariff  across many exports to avert Trump’s threatened 30% blanket duties on EU goods. While two-thirds of EU–US trade in industrial goods is already tariff-free, Brussels will now remove residual duties averaging  1.35% . For US farm produce, concessions include  zero tariffs on potatoes , reduced t...

China’s effort to cool down the  electric vehicle (EV) price war  is seeing little success, as major automakers continue offering steep discounts to lure buyers in an overcrowded and cautious market. Discounts Remain Widespread All of China’s  top 20 auto brands  either maintained, deepened, or only slightly reduced discounts in July, according to China Auto Market data. Seven brands  increased promotions despite Beijing’s June warning against “rat-race competition.” Overall promotions in July were  higher than a year earlier , showing muted response to government pressure. Why It’s Hard to Control Prices Analysts note that carmakers are unlikely to slash sticker prices directly, but will continue offering  indirect perks , such as: Interest-free financing Complimentary home chargers Cabin upgrades (premium seats, connectivity perks) Average sale prices keep drifting lower as buyers favor cheaper models: BYD:  114,760 yuan (July) vs 116,200 yuan (...

 Shares Rebound After Suspension Dongfeng Motor Group Co.  surged as much as  69% to HK$10.10  in Hong Kong on Monday, the steepest jump in six months, after trading resumed following a two-week halt. The rally came on the back of long-awaited restructuring plans involving a  privatization and spin-off listing  of its luxury EV unit,  Voyah . Transaction Details Privatization Offer:  Shareholders will receive  HK$6.68 in cash  plus  0.3552608 Voyah H-shares  for each Dongfeng share. Implied Value:  HK$10.85 per share, according to company filing. Voyah Listing:  Aimed at unlocking value in Dongfeng’s luxury new-energy vehicle (NEV) business, with the spin-off designed to highlight growth potential in China’s booming EV sector. Strategic Rationale Valuation Gap:  Dongfeng has consistently traded at a  steep discount to book value . Analysts note its  cash and equivalents nearly double its market cap , un...

Xiaomi Corp posted a  31% revenue increase  in the latest quarter, beating expectations as demand for its new electric vehicles (EVs) offset weakness in smartphone sales. Earnings Highlights Revenue:  116 billion yuan (US$16.2 billion), above estimates of 115 billion yuan. Net income:  Nearly doubled to 11.9 billion yuan. EV sales:  Delivered  81,302 cars in Q2 , bringing H1 deliveries to  157,000+  — already close to topping 2024’s total. EVs Drive Growth The  YU7 SUV , launched in June, has been a blockbuster hit, with  wait times stretching over a year . Founder  Lei Jun  expects the car division to  turn profitable in H2 2025 . Xiaomi has invested  US$10 billion  into EVs, aiming to crack the global top five alongside  Tesla  and  BYD . Despite a fatal accident in March involving the SU7 sedan, strong consumer demand has helped Xiaomi avoid getting dragged into China’s EV price war. Market Perf...

Ford Motor Co. said its 2025 profits will take a sharp hit as President Donald Trump’s escalating tariffs add billions in costs, underscoring how U.S. trade policy is disrupting the global auto industry. Tariff Impact: Ford now expects a  US$2 billion tariff bill  this year,  US$500 million higher  than previously estimated. The company cited  steel and aluminum tariffs doubling to 50%  and extended duties aimed at curbing fentanyl imports as key factors driving costs up. CEO Jim Farley said the tariffs feel “long term,” warning Ford’s competitiveness is at risk compared with Japanese automakers after the U.S.-Japan trade deal lowered Japan’s tariff rate to 15%. Financial Outlook: Ford forecast a  36% drop in adjusted EBIT for the full year . Second-quarter adjusted earnings came in at  37 cents per share , topping Wall Street’s 33-cent estimate. Adjusted EBIT for Q2 was  US$2.1 billion , also beating expectations. Business Segment Performanc...

Technical Outlook Li Auto’s stock is trading above both its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, showing a strong upward trend. Technical indicators like the MACD suggest positive momentum. If the price breaks above HKD 122 with strong volume, the next resistance is at HKD 125. Business Summary Li Auto designs and sells smart electric SUVs in China. The company is part of the growing new energy vehicle sector and benefits from strong domestic demand. Financial Highlights (in million HKD) Year Revenue Net Profit Profit Margin FY2025F 178,826 11,009 6.2% FY2026F 231,437 16,196 7.0% FY2027F 269,323 20,532 7.6% Net profit is expected to grow 27% annually over the next 3 years , showing Li Auto is becoming more efficient and profitable. Profit margins are stable at around 7%, which is strong for the auto industry. Balance Sheet (FY2024): The company’s  assets far exceed liabilities , showing financial strength. Equity base remains solid , and net gearing is low, meaning low debt risk. Key...

Tesla’s stock plunged 8%  after reporting a rough quarter, with falling revenue and auto sales sending shockwaves through both the market and options traders. What Happened? Revenue dropped 12%  from the previous quarter to  $22.5 billion , missing analyst expectations of $22.74 billion. Vehicle deliveries fell 16% , marking the second straight quarter of declining sales—even with a refreshed Model Y SUV. Some market watchers suggest  Elon Musk’s controversial political activities  may also be denting global brand appeal. Options Market Reaction 3.84 million Tesla options  traded in a day—massive volume. Put-call ratio: 0.88 , showing a nearly balanced but slightly bullish outlook from traders. Tesla options were among the  most actively traded on the market  following the earnings news. Bonus: Unusual Options Alert $Comerica (CMA)  saw standout activity with  $80 calls showing a 170x volume-to-open-interest ratio , with 25,322 contracts...