MONEY MASTER

Quick Summary Nvidia has halted talks to invest up to US$100 billion in OpenAI , according to WSJ Internal concerns at Nvidia reportedly stalled the deal Partnership may still continue at a  much smaller scale Raises fresh questions about  AI investment sustainability What Happened NVIDIA Corp  has  stopped negotiations  on a planned  US$100 billion investment  in  OpenAI , exposing a potential rift between two of the most influential players in artificial intelligence, the  Wall Street Journal  reported. The talks reportedly  broke down after internal concerns emerged within Nvidia , prompting both sides to rethink the structure of their partnership. From Mega-Deal to Scaled-Back Option The original plan, announced in September via a  letter of intent , envisioned: US$100B investment Construction of  new AI data centres Up to  10 gigawatts of computing power  — roughly equal to  New York City’s peak electri...

Quick Summary Bob Iger plans to step down as Disney CEO before his contract ends on Dec 31 Disney’s board is set to decide on his successor in the current quarter Succession race narrowed to two internal candidates Iger aims to give the next CEO a clean break, avoiding past transition mistakes What’s Happening Bob Iger  has told close associates he intends to  step back from the CEO role and daily management before the end of his contract , according to people familiar with the matter. The board of  The Walt Disney Company  is expected to  meet next week in Burbank  to vote on who will take over the top job. While the  exact timing is not final , Iger is expected to: Stay on for  several months after the announcement Mentor his successor Potentially  retain a board or advisory role Why Iger Wants to Move On In private conversations, Iger has expressed: Fatigue with day-to-day management Frustration with internal conflicts , including tensions...

Quick Summary US stock markets closed lower , led by a sharp tech sell-off Gold and silver collapsed , snapping months-long rallies Markets reacted to Trump naming Kevin Warsh as Fed chair , reducing rate-cut expectations Apple beat earnings , but couldn’t offset weakness across semiconductors and AI stocks Market Snapshot Dow Jones Industrial Average:   -0.36%  to  48,892.47 S&P 500:   -0.43%  to  6,939.03 Nasdaq Composite:   -0.90%  to  23,461.82 Tech-heavy Nasdaq led losses  as investors continued to unwind crowded AI and semiconductor trades. What Drove the Sell-Off 1️⃣ Tech Earnings Disappointment While  Apple  posted a solid earnings beat, it failed to lift sentiment after: Weak reactions to  Microsoft  results earlier in the week Poorly received earnings from  Western Digital Major tech decliners included: Western Digital:   -10.1% Seagate Technology:   -8.7% AMD:   -6.1% Micron Technolo...

Quick Summary US dollar has fallen nearly 12% under Trump’s second term , hitting its weakest level since 2022 Trump’s tariffs, Fed pressure, and geopolitical rhetoric  are reviving fears of deliberate dollar weakening Investors are hedging, diversifying, and reducing US exposure Emerging markets and gold benefited , while confidence in the dollar’s safe-haven status erodes What’s Driving the Dollar Selloff The so-called  “debasement trade”  is back. Currency traders globally have ramped up bets against the dollar as President  Donald Trump : Renewed  tariff threats  against allies Publicly  pressured the Federal Reserve  to cut rates Signalled comfort with a  weaker dollar , calling its level “great for business” Stoked geopolitical unease, from Greenland rhetoric to Western Hemisphere dominance The  Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index  has dropped almost  12% , marking its sharpest slide since Trump’s April trade-war shocks. Why Inve...

Quick Summary European leveraged loan issuance hit a record weekly high Over €26.5 billion of loans priced in one week , the busiest in years Refinancings and repricings dominated , not new borrowing Investor demand remains strong , driven by CLO inflows and low risk premiums What’s Driving the Surge A wave of  private equity–backed companies  rushed into the market to  refinance debt and lower interest costs , taking advantage of: A  temporary lull in geopolitical noise Large pools of sidelined capital  searching for yield Risk premiums near multi-year lows According to Bloomberg data, the week’s issuance represented  about 5.3% of the entire European leveraged loan market . Cost-Cutting in Action Most deals focused on  repricing existing loans : Dechra  trimmed  50 basis points  from both euro and dollar loans Ahlsell  cut  75 basis points  from its  €2.6 billion debt pile Borrowers are moving fast, aware that marke...

Quick Summary Mexico’s economy grew faster than expected in Q4 , avoiding a technical recession GDP rose 0.8% quarter-on-quarter , beating forecasts Agriculture led the rebound , offsetting weak investment and tariff pressure Full-year growth slowed to 0.5% , highlighting structural challenges What Happened Mexico’s economy staged a  stronger-than-expected rebound in the fourth quarter , helping the country dodge a technical recession after a contraction in Q3. Q4 GDP:   +0.8% q/q  (vs  0.6%  expected) Q4 GDP:   +1.6% y/y  (vs  1.3%  expected) Q3 GDP:   -0.3% q/q The data was released by Mexico’s national statistics agency and reflects  preliminary figures . What Drove the Growth The rebound was powered mainly by  agriculture , which delivered outsized gains: Agriculture:   +5.3% y/y Industry & manufacturing:   +0.4% Services:   +2.0% Key driver:  A strong agricultural quarter helped compensate for slugg...

Quick Summary American Express saw stronger-than-expected customer spending Quarterly dividend raised by 16% to US$0.95 per share Earnings narrowly missed estimates due to higher investment costs Management warns proposed US credit-card rate cap could hurt the economy What Happened American Express Co  reported  robust customer spending  in the fourth quarter, signalling resilient consumer demand even as costs climbed. Transaction volume (billed business): US$445.1 billion ,  +9% YoY Beat Wall Street expectations of  US$441.4 billion Dividend increased by ~16%  to  US$0.95 per share , effective Q1 Earnings Snapshot EPS:   US$3.53  ( +16% YoY ), slightly below consensus of  US$3.56 Higher costs  weighed on profit, driven mainly by: Platinum card refresh Investments in AmEx’s new app and digital capabilities CEO  Stephen Squeri  said the spending is strategic and already delivering results. “Our investments are paying off — ...

Quick Summary Trump officially picked Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair US stock futures fell , while  gold and silver plunged sharply Crypto markets saw US$1.7B liquidations  amid policy shock Apple and SanDisk delivered strong earnings , led by China recovery and pricing power Key Market Developments Trump Picks Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair President  Donald Trump  confirmed he will nominate  Kevin Warsh  to succeed  Jerome Powell  when Powell’s term ends in May. Market interpretation: Warsh is  supportive of lower rates , but Cautious on heavy stimulus and Fed balance-sheet expansion This reinforced expectations of  tighter liquidity , even if rate cuts resume later in the year. Before the Bell: Market Reaction Nasdaq 100 futures:   -0.39% S&P 500 futures:   -0.27% Dow futures:   -0.22% US dollar:   +0.21% Precious metals were hit hard: Gold:   -4.62% , briefly  below US$5,000 Silver: ...

Quick Summary US stock futures fell sharply  after Donald Trump signalled an imminent Fed chair announcement Kevin Warsh is widely seen as the frontrunner , with prediction markets pricing a 94% probability Dollar and Treasury yields ticked higher , pressuring equities Markets view Warsh as  moderate — not aggressively dovish , raising liquidity concerns What’s Driving the Market US equity futures retreated after President  Donald Trump  said he has  firmed up his choice  to replace Fed Chair  Jerome Powell , with reports pointing to  Kevin Warsh . Bloomberg and Reuters reported that Warsh  visited the White House on Thursday , fuelling expectations of a formal nomination as early as Friday. Why Markets Are Nervous While Warsh is seen as  supportive of lower interest rates , investors are focused on his reputation for: Caution on heavy monetary stimulus Preference for a  smaller Fed balance sheet Key tension:  Lower rates, but ...

Quick Summary German unemployment crossed 3 million , the highest level in 12 years Jobless rate rose to 6.6% , highlighting weak labour momentum GDP grew 0.3% in Q4 , beating expectations despite trade turmoil Inflation ticked up in several states , keeping price pressures in focus What’s Happening in the Labour Market Germany’s unemployment climbed sharply at the start of the year, underscoring the  lagging impact of recent economic stagnation . Unemployed:   3.08 million  (+177,000 vs December) Unemployment rate:   6.6%  (seasonally unadjusted) Seasonally adjusted rate:   6.3% , unchanged Labour office head  Andrea Nahles  said momentum remains weak, with seasonal factors driving much of the rise. Economy Holds Up Better Than Expected Despite job market softness,  Germany’s economy showed resilience . Q4 GDP:   +0.3% q/q  (vs 0.2% expected) Annual growth:   +0.2% , confirming initial estimates The statistics office said the ...