MONEY MASTER

Malaysia’s retail sector delivered a softer-than-expected start to 2026, with  slowing consumer spending prompting a downgrade in full-year outlook , highlighting growing pressure on household purchasing power. Retail Growth Falls Short Despite Festive Boost Retail sales rose  3.7% YoY in 1Q2026 , below expectations of  4.4% , despite support from: Chinese New Year and Hari Raya  festive spending RM4.6 billion in government cash aid The weaker-than-expected performance suggests that  cost-of-living pressures are outweighing seasonal demand support . Full-Year Outlook Cut on Weak Consumer Sentiment Retail associations lowered their  2026 growth forecast to 3.8% (from 4.0%) , citing: Middle East conflict impacting inflation Rising costs eroding  consumer purchasing power Key point: Slower retail growth reflects cautious consumer behaviour amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. Tourism and Fiscal Support Provide Partial Cushion Malaysia attracted...

US retailers are scrambling to adjust their strategies as tariff rules shift again, adding fresh uncertainty to consumer spending and profit outlooks in 2026. Key Takeaways Tariff rate raised to 15% after Supreme Court ruling Retailers warn of “policy whiplash” complicating planning Companies reluctant to raise prices amid cautious consumers Middle East tensions add new shipping and fuel cost risks Tariff Landscape Shifts Again The US government lifted temporary import levies to  15% , up from 10%, after the Supreme Court struck down emergency duties. Retailers say the bigger problem isn’t just higher tariffs — it’s unpredictability. Key Point: Policy volatility, not just tariff levels, is the main risk for retailers. Companies can plan for higher costs — but not for rules that change week to week. Who Is Most Affected? Abercrombie & Fitch Factored the 15% tariff into forecasts Estimated 70 basis-point hit (~US$40 million) Previously projected US$90 million impact Best Buy Heav...

Quick Summary American Express saw stronger-than-expected customer spending Quarterly dividend raised by 16% to US$0.95 per share Earnings narrowly missed estimates due to higher investment costs Management warns proposed US credit-card rate cap could hurt the economy What Happened American Express Co  reported  robust customer spending  in the fourth quarter, signalling resilient consumer demand even as costs climbed. Transaction volume (billed business): US$445.1 billion ,  +9% YoY Beat Wall Street expectations of  US$441.4 billion Dividend increased by ~16%  to  US$0.95 per share , effective Q1 Earnings Snapshot EPS:   US$3.53  ( +16% YoY ), slightly below consensus of  US$3.56 Higher costs  weighed on profit, driven mainly by: Platinum card refresh Investments in AmEx’s new app and digital capabilities CEO  Stephen Squeri  said the spending is strategic and already delivering results. “Our investments are paying off — ...

Key Takeaways Credit-card dependence is rising again More Americans plan to finance holiday shopping with credit, signaling pressure on disposable incomes. Inflation is still the dominant economic fear Even with a cooling trend in recent months, it continues to shape consumer behavior. Spending is increasingly polarized Higher-income households are driving discretionary spending, while lower-income groups are relying on credit to cope with necessities. Delinquencies remain stable—for now Low joblessness is helping keep credit risk contained, but rising card usage may test borrowers’ resilience in 2026. US consumers are preparing to rely more heavily on credit cards for the upcoming Thanksgiving-to-Cyber-Monday shopping season, according to new data that underscores the pressure inflation continues to exert on household finances. A TransUnion survey of 3,000 consumers found that  42% plan to use credit cards for holiday purchases , up from 38% last year. The shift highlights how eve...

Key Takeaway Japan’s economy grew  faster than expected in Q2 2025 , with GDP revised to  +2.2% annualized  from an earlier estimate of 1.0%. The upside surprise was driven by stronger private consumption and exports, providing some support amid ongoing trade and political uncertainty. Details of the Revision Quarter-on-quarter growth:  +0.5% (vs. +0.3% in the initial reading) Private consumption:  +0.4% — households boosted spending, especially in services and retail Domestic demand:  +0.2% annualized Exports:  +2%, aided by a  weaker yen , which improved overseas competitiveness Investor Implications Short-term lift:  Stronger consumer spending and export momentum show resilience, giving policymakers breathing space. Caution ahead:  Trade headwinds from U.S. tariffs and Japan’s political uncertainty (after PM Ishiba’s resignation) could weigh on Q3 performance. Market focus:  Investors will watch whether consumption can stay stron...

Key Takeaway Japan’s real wages rose for the first time in seven months in July, supported by summer bonuses, while consumer spending posted a third straight gain. However, sticky inflation above the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) 2% target continues to cloud the outlook and complicates rate-hike timing. Wage Growth vs Inflation Real Wages:  +0.5% YoY in July, first positive reading since Dec 2024. Bonuses:  Special payments jumped 7.9%, providing a one-off lift. Regular Pay:  Base salaries rose 2.5%, fastest pace in seven months. Overtime Pay:  Up 3.3%, strongest since Nov 2022 — a sign of corporate activity. Nominal Pay:  Total earnings climbed 4.1% YoY to ¥419,668 (≈US$2,850). But inflation-adjusted gains may not last without bonuses. Consumer inflation ran at  3.6% , slowing from prior months but still well above the BOJ’s 2% goal. Consumer Spending Trends Household Spending:  +1.4% YoY in July, weaker than forecasts (+2.3%). MoM (seasonally adjusted): ...

  Key Takeaways Rising wages and a resilient labour market have not translated into stronger consumer spending. Household loan applications, approvals and disbursements have slowed in recent months, signalling caution. AmBank projects  private consumption growth of 5% in 2025 , supporting GDP growth of  3.8% , below official forecast of 4.0–4.8%. Consumer sentiment remains subdued amid  global policy uncertainty  and  domestic policy changes , limiting the “feel-good factor.” Short-term support expected from the government’s  RM100 cash aid , injecting ~RM2 billion into the economy. The upcoming  RON95 petrol subsidy rationalisation  poses further uncertainty, though AmBank expects a  gradual rollout  rather than abrupt changes. Analysis Malaysia’s post-pandemic wage recovery and strong labour market have not spurred proportional increases in consumer spending. AmBank’s chief economist Firdaos Rosli highlighted weakening household b...

Key Takeaway: Stronger wages and a resilient labour market are not translating into higher consumer spending, raising concerns over Malaysia’s domestic demand-led growth. AmBank projects private consumption growth of  ~5% in 2025 , but notes that sentiment remains subdued amid global and domestic policy uncertainties. Household Spending Trends Income growth vs. spending restraint : Wages have risen post-pandemic, but loan applications, approvals, and disbursements at the household level have tapered off in recent months. Weak sentiment : Tepid household spending reflects a  low propensity to consume , driven by concerns over US policy shifts, global geopolitical risks, and domestic supply-side adjustments. Implications for Growth GDP contribution at risk : With  private consumption making up over 60% of GDP , slower spending momentum could weigh on the broader economy. Forecasts : Official projections: GDP growth  4.0%–4.8%  in 2025. AmBank forecast: GDP growth...

Grab Holdings posted a  $20 million net profit  for the second quarter, turning around from a  $68 million loss  a year ago, as strong consumer demand and disciplined cost management boosted results. Financial Highlights: Net Profit:  $20M (vs. $68M loss last year), beating analysts’ $17.53M estimate. Revenue:  $819M, up  23% , driven by on-demand and financial services. Adjusted EBITDA:  $109M, up  69%  year-over-year. Key Drivers: Higher revenue, improved margins, and lower share-based compensation expenses. GrabUnlimited subscribers  continued to outspend and order more frequently than non-subscribers, especially in food delivery. CEO Commentary: Co-founder and CEO Anthony Tan said continued investment in affordability and reliability has “deepened user engagement and retention” despite a volatile macro environment. Outlook: Grab maintained its annual adjusted EBITDA guidance at  $460M–$480M . Expects  a stronger second...

Strong Earnings Signal Consumer Resilience Visa (V) posted an  8% increase in quarterly profit  to  $5.3 billion , highlighting that  consumer spending remains healthy  despite lingering inflation concerns. Adjusted earnings came in at  $2.98 per share , beating Wall Street estimates of $2.85, while revenue surged  14% to $10.2 billion , also topping forecasts. Transaction Volumes Keep Climbing Global payments volume on Visa-branded cards rose  8% , with U.S. volumes up  7%  and international volumes climbing  10% . This growth underscores continued strength in both discretionary and everyday spending. For retail investors, these numbers show that Visa’s business model benefits directly from consumer activity regardless of economic uncertainty. Shares Dip After-Hours — Opportunity? Despite the earnings beat, Visa shares fell  2.6% in after-hours trading , likely due to profit per share coming in slightly below some estimates. H...

  Spending to See Strong Growth BMI expects Malaysian consumer spending to rise  3.8% in 2025  to  MYR930.7 billion , followed by  5.0% growth in 2026  reaching  MYR977.3 billion . This rebound brings spending close to pre-Covid growth levels, supported by a healthier labour market and monetary easing. Low Inflation and Rate Cuts Support Demand Headline inflation is forecast to average  1.9% in 2025  and  2.2% in 2026 , providing households with stronger purchasing power. June 2025 inflation slowed to  1.1% YoY , the lowest since February 2021. Bank Negara Malaysia’s  25bps rate cut in July 2025 to 2.75%  — the first in five years — is expected to ease borrowing costs and encourage spending. Another  rate cut to 2.50%  is projected by end-2026. Labour Market Strengthens Purchasing Power Unemployment remains low at  3.0% , its best level in a decade, and is forecast to average  3.1% over 2025–2026 . Comb...

The Federal Reserve's  core personal consumption expenditures (PCE)  price index, its favored measure of inflation, cooled in November, signaling progress in controlling price pressures. The monthly core PCE index rose  0.1% , the slowest since May, while the annual rate held at  2.8% , below expectations of 2.9%. Key Highlights Broad-Based Deceleration: Core services prices, excluding housing and energy, rose  0.2% , the slowest since August, while core goods prices fell for the first time in three months. Consumer Spending Resilience: Inflation-adjusted spending rose  0.3% , driven by strong goods purchases, including vehicles, though services spending showed the weakest growth since early 2024. Wage Growth: Wages and salaries increased  0.6% , the fastest since March, supporting consumer resilience during the holiday season. However, overall disposable income grew modestly at  0.3% . Market Reaction Treasury Yields and Dollar:  Fell after ...

US consumer spending, a key driver of the economy, grew by  0.4% in November , following a revised  0.3% gain in October , reflecting the economy’s resilience. This solid spending trend supported the Federal Reserve’s decision to adjust its outlook, projecting only  two rate cuts in 2025 , down from four anticipated three months ago. Economic Highlights: Consumer spending, representing over two-thirds of US economic activity, continues to underpin the economy, which grew at an  annualized 3.1% rate in Q3 . The  Atlanta Federal Reserve  forecasts Q4 GDP growth at  3.2% , reflecting a slight deceleration from earlier quarters. Fed Chair Jerome Powell commended the economy’s performance, stating it has been “remarkable.” Inflation Trends: The  PCE price index , a key inflation measure, rose  0.1% in November , compared to  0.2% in October . On a yearly basis, the PCE index increased  2.4% , with core inflation holding steady at  2...

Canadian retail sales showed no growth in November, halting a four-month streak of gains, according to an advanced estimate by Statistics Canada. This follows a  0.6% increase in October , slightly below the  0.7% forecast  by Bloomberg-polled economists. Key Highlights Consumption Weakens:  Retail sales stalling signals waning consumer momentum as the Bank of Canada continues to lower borrowing costs, albeit at a slower pace. Bank of Canada Rate Cuts:  Since June, the central bank has reduced rates by  175 basis points , with another  50 basis points  cut last week. Policymakers are expected to continue easing early next year. Subsector Performance: Automotive Sales Lead Gains:  Sales increased at both new and used car dealerships in October. Core Retail Sales:  Excluding gas stations and car dealers, core sales rose  0.2% , driven by furniture, electronics, and personal care. Gas Station Sales Decline:  Receipts dropped for t...

T he US economy grew faster in Q3 than previously estimated , driven by  strong consumer spending  and a  surge in exports , according to revised figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis released Thursday. Key Highlights GDP Growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP)  increased at a  3.1% annualized rate  in Q3, up from the prior estimate of  2.8% . Consumer spending , a key driver of the economy, was revised to  3.7%  from 3.5%. Exports Surge Exports expanded by 9.6% , significantly higher than the previous estimate of 7.5%, with growth entirely attributed to  services. Inflation Metrics The  personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index , excluding food and energy, was revised slightly higher to  2.2%. Economic Resilience The revised data reinforces that the  economy remains strong , defying forecasters’ predictions of a slowdown. This comes on the heels of the Federal Reserve signaling  slower rate cuts in 2025 ...

Retail sales  rose  0.7% in November , surpassing economists’ forecasts of 0.5%, according to the  Census Bureau . This solid gain highlights  strong consumer spending  as the holiday shopping season kicked off. Key Insights Annual Growth : Retail sales climbed  3.8% year-over-year , showcasing steady momentum. Holiday Spending Strength : Despite a  late Thanksgiving  pushing Cyber Monday into December,  holiday spending is off to a robust start . Cyber Week Sales : Adobe Analytics reported  $41.1 billion  in online sales during Cyber Week, an  8.2% increase  from last year. What’s Driving the Growth? Consumer Resilience : Credit card data from Bank of America shows household spending grew  0.6% year-over-year  in November. Shortened Season Impact : A delayed start to the holidays might mean  higher weekly spending  over a shorter season. Strong December Momentum : KeyBanc data shows the  second-st...

Shares of Foot Locker Inc fell sharply after the company slashed its full-year sales and profit forecasts, citing increased discounting and reduced consumer spending ahead of the critical holiday season. Weaker Consumer Spending and Sales Shortfall Foot Locker’s CEO Mary Dillon noted that U.S. shoppers have become more selective, seeking better deals, which weighed on the company’s performance and undermined its turnaround efforts. “The consumer is being choosy, picky, and smart, trying to find the best deals they can find,” Dillon said in an interview, adding that the increasingly promotional environment has prompted a more cautious outlook. Key highlights: Comparable Store Sales: Rose 2.4% in Q3, below analyst expectations of 2.8%. Full-Year Sales Forecast: Anticipates a decline of up to 1.5%, a 0.5 percentage point downgrade from prior guidance. Earnings per Share Guidance: Lowered to $1.20-$1.30 from a previous high of $1.70 . Market Reaction The company's shares plunged ...

Hilton Worldwide has reduced its annual room revenue growth and net income forecasts , citing weaker demand in China and disruptions to its US business during the third quarter. Despite steady demand in Europe and business travel , these factors were not enough to offset the challenges faced by the global hotel chain. Shares of Hilton fell 2% on Wednesday, with competitor Marriott International also declining by 3%. The company cited several contributing factors, including macroeconomic uncertainty affecting both American and Chinese consumers , ongoing labor disputes , and weather disruptions in the US, as well as the upcoming US election. Hilton's system-wide comparable RevPAR (revenue per available room) rose by 1.4% in Q3, with room revenue dropping 9% in China but increasing by 1% in the United States . Hilton CEO Christopher Nassetta acknowledged flat or slightly declining demand, though the company suggested that increased room rates could help mitigate lower deman...

LVMH shares dropped by as much as 7.5% in Paris trading after its fashion and leather goods sales declined for the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic . This drop reflects the growing slump in demand from Chinese consumers , once a major driver of the luxury market. The company reported a 5% decline in organic revenue in the third quarter, marking the worst performance since the lockdowns of 2020. The slump in luxury stocks wiped out about US$33 billion from the market values of key European stocks, including Hermes , Richemont , and Kering . LVMH's shares have now fallen 21% this year. LVMH's Chief Financial Officer Jean-Jacques Guiony noted that consumer confidence in mainland China is still near the lows seen during the pandemic, with Beijing's recent stimulus efforts yet to yield a meaningful boost in consumption. Despite hopes for a rebound in the luxury market, Citigroup indicated that there has been "no improvement" in luxury spending following...

As Malaysia’s Budget 2025 approaches, there is growing speculation that food subsidy cuts may be on the table, particularly for eggs. While fuel subsidy rationalization is expected to take center stage, food-related subsidies might also be trimmed as the government seeks to manage its enormous subsidy bill . Despite the small share of food subsidies compared to fuel, the government has emphasized the need for targeted subsidies . Economists note that while savings from food subsidy cuts would be minimal, it may be a first step toward broader subsidy reforms. Food subsidies for items such as cooking oil, rice , and eggs currently account for RM3.18 billion of the RM52.8 billion in subsidies and social assistance allocated for 2024. Eggs, which receive a 10 sen subsidy per egg , amounting to around RM100 million , are a prime candidate for subsidy cuts. Economists suggest that allowing market forces to set egg prices could stabilize costs, similar to the approach taken for chicke...