Asian equities eased on Thursday as investors locked in gains from a strong quarter and positioned for month-end flows, while the Japanese yen slid to fresh lows against the euro and Swiss franc.
Equities Consolidate After Strong Quarter
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped 0.2%, though it remains up 5.5% for September and 9% for the quarter.
Nikkei 225: Rose 0.1%, extending quarterly gains of 13%.
Chinese blue chips: Flat.
Hang Seng Index: Down 0.2%.
Analysts flagged possible rebalancing flows as month- and quarter-end approach. “Funds may need to sell US and Japanese indices, with German and Australian markets likely to benefit,” said Tony Sycamore of IG.
Wall Street and Fed Outlook
Overnight, Wall Street fell for a second straight session as investors booked profits from record highs.
S&P 500 futures: Up 0.1%.
Nasdaq futures: Up 0.1%.
Markets still price in a 92% chance of a Fed rate cut in October, but expectations for total easing have eased to 100 bps, down from 125 bps earlier this month.
Remarks from Fed officials will be closely watched after Chair Jerome Powell signaled caution following last week’s first rate cut of the year. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said further easing is likely, but the timing remains uncertain.
Key upcoming data includes the PCE inflation gauge on Friday and the final Q2 GDP estimate later Thursday, with a potential US government shutdown also in focus.
Bond Market and Treasury Supply
US Treasury yields were little changed as markets absorbed heavy government and corporate supply.
10-year yield: Flat at 4.14% after rising three basis points overnight.
Upcoming auction: US$44 billion in seven-year notes on Thursday, following earlier two- and five-year sales.
Yen Under Pressure
The dollar eased 0.1% to ¥148.77, after a 0.9% overnight gain. The yen fell to:
¥174.78 per euro — near a record low of 175.9.
¥187.30 per Swiss franc — a new all-time trough.
The Swiss National Bank is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at zero later Thursday, its first pause since late 2023.
Commodities
Oil: Brent crude fell 0.3% to US$69.11; US crude slipped 0.4% to US$64.73 after hitting a seven-week high earlier in the week.
“Brent continues to find support in the US$65–70 range despite oversupply forecasts for late 2025 and early 2026,” said Vivek Dhar, strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, who still sees downside risk to US$60 next quarter.
Gold: Flat at US$3,739 an ounce, after a 0.7% decline overnight.
Outlook
Asian markets are consolidating gains as investors reassess central bank signals, quarter-end flows, and commodity price pressures. Currency volatility, particularly in the yen, remains a key watchpoint heading into the final quarter of the year.
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