Key Takeaways
Fed expected to cut rates by 25 bps to 4.00%-4.25%; markets watching Powell’s tone for guidance.
Dollar index lingers near 2-month low; euro touched a four-year high before slight pullback.
Gold extends record run, crossing US$3,700/oz for the first time; investors position for dovish Fed.
Asian equities mixed: Hang Seng leads with 1.4% gain on optimism over TikTok deal; Nikkei slips.
Oil steadies after recent surge; Ukraine drone strikes keep supply risks elevated.
FX & Commodities
The US dollar index edged up 0.1% to 96.72 after sliding 0.7% on Tuesday, its sharpest fall since July. The euro traded at US$1.1855, near its strongest level since 2021, while the yen held at ¥146.43. Markets have already priced in over five rate cuts this cycle, leaving limited room for further downside in the dollar.
Gold climbed 0.2% to US$3,683/oz after breaking above US$3,700 for the first time, supported by Fed easing expectations and safe-haven flows. Oil eased 0.1% to US$64.45 as supply concerns from Ukraine’s strikes on Russian facilities offset softer demand data.
Equities
Asian markets were mixed.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng +1.4% on optimism around TikTok’s US operations.
MSCI Asia ex-Japan +0.2%, extending its winning streak to nine sessions.
Nikkei 225 –0.1% after hitting a record high on Tuesday.
US and European futures edged higher, pointing to firmer opens later in the day.
Macro & Central Banks
The Fed is widely expected to deliver a 25 bps cut, but investor focus is on Chair Powell’s commentary. Markets want clarity on the pace of easing given sticky inflation and slowing growth. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada is also set to cut rates to support its weakening labor market.
In Japan, exports fell for a fourth straight month in August, underscoring the drag from global tariffs and weaker external demand.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin slipped 0.2% to US$116,687, while ether eased 0.18% to US$4,491, mirroring cautious sentiment ahead of the Fed.
Investor View
Markets have entered a high-stakes inflection point: the Fed’s rate guidance could shape near-term trends across FX, gold, and equities. With easing largely priced in, the risk is for disappointment if Powell fails to reinforce dovish expectations. Investors should brace for volatility, particularly in gold, Treasuries, and the US dollar.
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