A sudden surge in Google searches for “help with mortgage” has spooked investors, with online chatter drawing comparisons to the 2008 housing crisis. But economists caution: while homeowner stress is rising, a repeat of the GFC is not on the cards — at least not yet.
Key Highlights
Search Surge: Google Trends shows queries for “help with mortgage” hitting their highest level since 2009.
Not 2008 Redux: The viral claim that searches surpassed the 2008 crisis is misleading. The true prior peak was in 2009.
Context Matters: Internet adoption was lower in 2009; today’s spike doesn’t directly translate into mass defaults.
Mortgage Stress Signals
Delinquencies Rising: Serious delinquencies (90+ days past due) climbed by 30,000 YoY in July (Intercontinental Exchange).
FHA Loans Under Pressure: FHA-backed mortgages (popular among first-time & lower-income buyers) accounted for 52% of serious delinquencies.
Conventional Mortgages Stable: Mainstream loans remain comparatively resilient.
Foreclosure Data
Foreclosure filings up 18.1% YoY in August (Attom), equating to ~1 in 4,000 housing units.
Foreclosure activity has risen for six straight months, but still below pre-pandemic levels.
Analyst Views
Realtor.com’s Krimmel: “I’d be wary of drawing strong conclusions from Google Trends. Watch local labor markets instead.”
Santander’s Stanley: “The overall picture is favorable, but vulnerable households are showing more strain.”
Investor Takeaway
The Google search spike is a red flag, not a crisis alarm. Mortgage stress is emerging at the lower-income segment, but the broader housing market remains intact. For now, the real risks to watch are local job markets + falling house prices + high recent-purchase areas — the ingredients of a potential storm.
Investor angle: The housing sector isn’t in meltdown mode, but rising FHA stress could weigh on consumer credit, regional banks, and homebuilders if labor markets soften.
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