MONEY MASTER

China’s latest inflation data reveals a clear shift beneath the surface,  the AI-driven industrial cycle is now feeding into price pressures , even as consumer demand remains subdued. Key Takeaway China's producer prices rose at the fastest pace in nearly four years, driven by stronger demand for AI-related electronics, computing infrastructure and industrial metals. However, soft consumer inflation suggests domestic demand remains weak, highlighting a growing divergence between industrial activity and consumer spending. AI Demand Is Driving Factory Inflation Producer prices (PPI) rose  3.9% YoY Strong demand from: AI infrastructure buildout Electronics and semiconductors Industrial metals like copper and aluminium The global AI spending wave,  especially data centre expansion is now directly influencing China’s upstream pricing power. Consumer Demand Still Lagging CPI grew only  1.2% YoY , below expectations Core inflation softened to  1.1% Weak consumption rem...

Markets are heading into a  data-heavy and earnings-packed week , with inflation pressures from the Iran conflict and major corporate results set to shape investor sentiment.  Inflation in Focus as Energy Costs Rise The key macro highlight will be the  Producer Price Index (PPI) , expected to reflect  rising energy costs driven by the Iran war . Higher oil prices are likely to: Push  headline inflation higher Pressure  corporate margins Influence  Federal Reserve policy expectations Investors will also monitor  jobless claims  and  existing home sales  for signals on the  labour market and housing trends . Bank Earnings Kick Off Season Earnings season begins with major US banks: Goldman Sachs (GS.US) JPMorgan (JPM.US) Bank of America (BAC.US) Strong  trading revenues  are expected, driven by heightened market volatility. Investors will focus on: Outlook amid geopolitical uncertainty Trends in  credit quality and ...

The Federal Reserve will finally receive one of the most critical inflation readings it has been missing for weeks, as the Labor Department releases the  September Producer Price Index (PPI)  on Tuesday—data that has been stuck in limbo during the 43-day US government shutdown. The wholesale inflation report, due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, will offer policymakers a long-delayed look at price pressures building inside the supply chain. The fresh data is also a key input into the  September PCE inflation report , the Fed’s preferred gauge, which is now scheduled for Dec. 5—just days before the central bank’s rate-setting meeting on  Dec. 9–10 . Why This Matters For nearly six weeks, the Fed has been flying partially blind, unable to access core inflation statistics that inform its assessment of how sticky price pressures truly are. The arrival of both  PPI  and  PCE  before the December meeting is seen as a meaningful shift for markets, which have been r...

  Key Takeaway: U.S. equities reversed early weakness to end Tuesday at fresh record highs, with investors betting that weaker labor data and large downward payroll revisions will accelerate the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut cycle. The S&P 500 gained 0.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4% to a record, while the Nasdaq 100 added 0.3%, just shy of a new peak. Market Performance S&P 500 : +0.3% to close at a record high. Dow Jones Industrial Average : +0.4%, also at a record close. Nasdaq 100 : +0.3%, narrowly missing a fresh record. Gains were led by  Alphabet (GOOGL US) , after an executive projected a US$58 billion revenue boost in its cloud unit by 2027. Drivers: Jobs Revision and Fed Outlook The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported payrolls would be revised  down by 911,000 jobs  for the 12 months through March. This follows last week’s weaker labor market data, reinforcing expectations for a dovish Fed shift. Northlight Asset Management CIO Chris Zac...

 Key Takeaway Investors see a September Fed rate cut as a done deal after the weak jobs report, but  this week’s CPI inflation reading could reshape expectations for future cuts . Services inflation is the wild card that could keep the Fed cautious. Why the Market Expects a Cut August jobs report showed just  22,000 new jobs , with earlier months revised lower. Traders now price in a  100% chance of a cut  at the Fed’s Sept. 17 meeting, with an  11% chance of a bigger 50bps move  (CME FedWatch). Fed Chair Jerome Powell already signaled in Jackson Hole that the Fed’s focus has shifted toward a weakening labor market. The Data to Watch CPI (Thurs):  Expected to rise 0.3% MoM, 2.9% YoY (vs. 2.7% in July). Core CPI:  Seen steady at 3.1% YoY. Economists warn “sticky” services inflation could complicate rate-cut plans. PPI (Wed):  May show how tariffs are filtering into producer costs. Jobs Revisions (Tues):  Could reveal up to 1 million ...

Key Takeaway US stocks remain near record highs, but next week’s  CPI and PPI data  could shift sentiment as investors weigh Fed rate cuts, tariffs, and rising bond yields. The S&P 500 has gained 10% in 2025 so far, but valuations look stretched. What Investors Are Watching Inflation in Focus:  Thursday’s CPI release is the week’s main event. A hotter-than-expected print could test assumptions of imminent Fed cuts. Rate Cut Odds:  Markets are pricing in a  90% chance of a 25bps cut  at the Sept 16–17 Fed meeting, with some betting on a 50bps move. Nearly  70bps of easing  is priced in by year-end. Producer Prices:  Wednesday’s PPI data could show the impact of import tariffs, after July’s PPI saw the sharpest jump in three years. Market Risks in Play Tariffs Back in Focus:  A US appeals court ruled most of President Trump’s tariffs illegal, creating uncertainty as the administration pushes the Supreme Court to intervene. Bond Market ...

Mixed Close for Major Indexes S&P 500  edged up  1.96 points (0.03%)  to a record  6,468.54 . Nasdaq Composite  slipped  2.47 points (0.01%)  to  21,710.67 , pulling back from Wednesday’s record. Dow Jones Industrial Average  dipped  11.01 points (0.02%)  to  44,911.26 . PPI Surprise Clouds Fed Cut Expectations July  Producer Price Index  rose  3.3% YoY , the fastest pace since February. Higher wholesale inflation reignited concerns that  Trump’s tariffs  could fuel broader price pressures. CME FedWatch  now shows a  92.6%  chance of a  0.25% rate cut  in September, down from 100% earlier in the week. Earlier in the week, a tame  Consumer Price Index  report had boosted hopes for three consecutive rate cuts. Magnificent Seven Performance Decliners:  Tesla (-1.1%) ,  Apple (-0.2%) . Gainers led by  Amazon (+2.9%) ; the other four names also ended high...

 U.S. stocks posted a mixed finish on Thursday despite a  scorching July Producer Price Index (PPI)  reading that initially rattled markets. The  PPI jumped 0.9% month-on-month , the fastest in three years and well above forecasts, sparking a swift sell-off in futures before buyers stepped back in. By the close: S&P 500  eked out a record high. Dow Jones  and  Nasdaq  ended marginally lower. Beneath the surface, small caps and rate-sensitive stocks took heavy hits. Key market dynamics: Rotation stalls  – Earlier in the week, falling bond yields had driven money into small caps and homebuilders. The hot PPI abruptly reversed this trend. Small-cap slump  – Russell 2000 fell  1.2% ; homebuilder ETF  XHB  slid  1.8% . Mega-cap support  – Heavyweights like Amazon and Netflix propped up the indexes, masking broader market weakness. Breadth deterioration  – Decliners outnumbered gainers in the S&P 500 despi...

  Producer Prices Continue to Fall Malaysia’s  Producer Price Index (PPI)  dropped  4.2% year-on-year in June , marking the fourth straight month of decline and the steepest fall since June 2023. The decrease was broad-based, with significant deflation in: Mining:  -8.0% YoY (crude petroleum -6.7%, natural gas -12.0%) Manufacturing:  -4.3% YoY (notably coke and refined petroleum -17.7%, electronics -7.8%) Agriculture:  -0.3% YoY, the first drop since November 2023, driven by weaker animal production prices. On a monthly basis, PPI slipped  0.7% in June , with declines in manufacturing, agriculture, and electricity prices, while mining prices rebounded sharply by  4.6% . CPI-PPI Gap Widens Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth slowed further to  1.1% YoY  in June, the lowest since February 2021. This widened the gap between consumer inflation and producer price deflation, highlighting weak cost pass-through at the wholesale level despite...

  Key Takeaways: PPI Eases:  Malaysia’s  Producer Price Index (PPI)  for local production rose  0.3% year-on-year (YoY)  in February 2025, down from  0.8% in January , signaling  moderating cost pressures  at the producer level. Agriculture Drives Growth: The  agriculture, forestry and fishing  sector continued to lead, up  15.2% YoY , driven by a  26.1% surge in  perennial crops . Mining Sector Contracts Sharply: Mining output  fell  9.7% YoY , deeper than January’s 1.3% drop, due to declines in  crude petroleum (-9.8%)  and  natural gas (-9.4%) . Manufacturing Softens: Manufacturing PPI fell  0.3% YoY , a smaller drop than January’s 0.6%. Biggest declines: Coke & refined petroleum products (-12.7%) Computer, electronic & optical products (-3.2%) Utilities: Electricity & gas supply  dipped  0.2% Water supply  remained resilient with a  2.9%  increase....

Malaysia's producer price index (PPI) , which tracks price changes of goods at the producer level, declined by 2.1% year-on-year in September, marking a downturn after seven consecutive months of growth , according to the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM) . Chief statistician Datuk Seri Dr. Mohd Uzir Mahidin attributed the biggest decline to the mining sector , which saw a 16.1% drop (August: -8.3%), driven by reductions in the extraction of crude petroleum (-18.6%) and natural gas (-7.9%) . The manufacturing sector also contracted, falling 1.5% (August: +1.0%), largely due to a steep decline in the manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products (-18.7%) . In contrast, the agriculture, forestry, and fishing sector grew by 5.8% (August: 2.7%), with a notable increase in the growing of perennial crops index (11.2%) . Utility sectors also showed positive growth, with the water supply index rising 7.8% and the electricity and gas supply index inching up by 0.3% . ...

Malaysia's producer price index (PPI) rose by 1.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in June 2024, up from 1.4% in May, according to the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM). Key Highlights: Overall PPI Increase: The PPI for local production increased by 1.6% y-o-y in June. This marks the fourth consecutive month of increases across all sectors since March. Sectoral Performance: Mining Sector: Rose by 4.6% y-o-y, down from 6.6% in May. Growth was driven by natural gas extraction (up 4.6%) and crude petroleum (up 4.5%). Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing Sector: Climbed to 3.4% y-o-y from 1.3% in the previous month, with significant contributions from the growing of perennial crops (up 7.5%) and animal production (up 1.7%). Manufacturing Sector: Increased by 1.1% y-o-y from 1.0% in May, primarily driven by the manufacture of computer, electronic, and optical products (up 9.2%). Utility Sector: Water supply index jumped 7.8% in June (May: 8.7%). Electricity and gas supply index rose by 1.0...