MONEY MASTER

Quick Summary Budget 2026 likely less generous , with fewer household handouts Fiscal surplus expected at 0.3%–1.0% of GDP Focus shifts to long-term growth, innovation and AI Strong 2025 growth gives government room to be prudent Why the Budget May Tighten Singapore is expected to unveil a  more fiscally conservative Budget 2026  on  Feb 12 , as policymakers balance resilient growth with long-term discipline after heavy household support last year. Economists from  Bank of America ,  Maybank  and  DBS  forecast a  budget surplus of 0.3% to 1.0% of GDP , signalling a pullback from 2025’s generous cash transfers. Key shift:  From short-term relief to  future positioning . Household Support Likely Reduced Analysts expect: Lower cash payouts  after “elevated support” in 2025 Early fiscal prudence to  preserve firepower  in case growth weakens later in the parliamentary term This follows Singapore’s rule to  balance t...

Germany’s business outlook weakened unexpectedly at the start of the year, highlighting how  Europe’s largest economy is still struggling to gain momentum , despite growing expectations of higher government spending later in 2026. What Happened An expectations index by the  Ifo Institute  fell to  89.5 in January , down from 89.7 in December. This came as a surprise, with economists surveyed by Bloomberg expecting an improvement to 90.3. While  current conditions edged slightly higher , forward-looking sentiment deteriorated — a sign that businesses remain cautious about the near-term outlook. According to Ifo president Clemens Fuest,  Germany is entering the new year with little economic momentum , with optimism improving in manufacturing but weakening in the services sector. Why Growth Still Looks Subdued Germany returned to growth in 2025 for the first time in three years, but the pace was modest at  0.2% , underscoring how fragile the recovery rema...

Malaysia closed out 2025 with a  strong trade surprise and firmer inflation , riding a late-year export wave even as economists brace for a moderation in growth heading into 2026, according to  OCBC Group Research . December Trade Beats by a Wide Margin Malaysia’s December trade data  far exceeded market expectations , driven by a sharp acceleration in exports. Export growth jumped to  10.4% YoY  in December, up from 7% in November and well above the  2.5% consensus forecast . Imports remained solid at  12.0% YoY , though slower than November’s 15.8%. As a result, Malaysia’s  trade surplus widened to RM9.3 billion . Electronics Lead the Export Surge The export strength was largely powered by  manufactured goods , particularly: Electronics & Electrical (E&E) products Machinery and appliances Optical & scientific equipment OCBC attributed the surge to the ongoing  global electronics upcycle  and resilient demand from key m...

Malaysia’s stock market reached a major milestone as the  FBM KLCI breached the 1,700 level , climbing to its  highest point in more than seven years . The benchmark index opened at  1,700.74 , last seen in  November 2018 , signalling renewed investor confidence in Malaysia’s economic outlook. What’s Driving the Rally Heavyweight buying support  pushed the index past the psychological 1,700 mark Positive sentiment since early January , after the index rallied from around 1,680 on Jan 5 Investors responded favourably to  Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s New Year 2026 message , which emphasised: Reform-led growth Stronger governance and execution Near-term economic support measures These signals reinforced expectations of policy continuity and a more pro-growth environment in 2026. Sector Performance Snapshot Top gainers: Technology Property Construction Lagging sectors: Utilities Transportation Industrial The sector rotation suggests investors are positioning ...

Malaysia is expected to unveil an  expansionary yet fiscally disciplined Budget 2026  on Friday, aiming to  shrink the fiscal deficit  through improved tax collection and new levies, even as government spending rises to support growth. Economists project the  deficit to narrow to 3.4%-3.6% of GDP  next year from 3.8% in 2025, in line with Prime Minister and Finance Minister  Anwar Ibrahim’s medium-term fiscal consolidation target  of 3% by 2030. Total expenditure is forecast to climb to  RM435 billion , driven by record-high  operating expenditure of RM348 billion —reflecting  higher civil service wages ,  targeted cash aid , and  social spending .  Development expenditure  may rise modestly to  RM87 billion , with allocations for  infrastructure, green energy, and digital projects  under the  13th Malaysia Plan . Key projects include the  LRT Mutiara Penang ,  Johor–Singapore Specia...

Key Takeaway Singapore posted the lowest consumer sentiment score in ASEAN, tied with Thailand, as optimism about the economic outlook fell sharply. The drop highlights Singapore’s sensitivity to global trade headwinds. Index Highlights UOB ASEAN Consumer Sentiment Index (2025) Singapore:  47/100  (lowest, tied with Thailand) Regional average:  54/100 YoY Movement : –10 points (largest decline among surveyed countries) Drivers of Weakness Economic Outlook : –17 points, biggest contributor to the decline. Personal Financial Confidence : –6 points. External Shocks : April 2025 U.S. tariff announcement drove volatility in May–June survey period. Analyst Insights UOB View : Singapore’s trade-dependent economy remains highly exposed to external shifts. Diversified base in  manufacturing, logistics, financial services  may cushion impact. Behavioral Shift : Despite weaker sentiment, households show resilience with: Higher  savings rates Rising  insurance cov...

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the federal funds rate unchanged at  4.25% to 4.5% , pointing to ongoing economic uncertainty despite a steady labor market. Slower Economic Growth Recent data showed the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of  3% in Q2 , helped by lower imports. The first half of the year averaged  1.25% growth , a full percentage point weaker than last year. Gross private investment dropped 15% in Q2 , the steepest fall in more than three years. Tariffs and Inflation Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that  higher tariffs are starting to affect prices , but their long-term impact on inflation is unclear. He said the effects might be temporary but warned they could also prove more persistent. Labor Market Remains Resilient ADP data showed  104,000 private-sector jobs added in July , topping forecasts of 76,000. Powell said the labor market is "roughly stable," but declines in both worker supply and demand pose potential risks. Rate Cut O...

  Key Takeaways: US GDP rose 2.4%  in Q4 2024, higher than the previous 2.2% estimate, signalling  stronger-than-expected economic momentum  at year-end. The upgrade was driven by  net exports, government spending, and business investment . However,  consumer spending growth was revised down  to 4%, still solid but less robust than initially reported. The  Fed’s preferred inflation gauge  — core PCE — was revised  down to 2.6% , a small but notable relief as markets brace for the February PCE report on Friday. Another key indicator,  Gross Domestic Income (GDI) , surged  4.5% , marking a notable rebound from the previous quarter. The average of GDP and GDI stood at  3.5% , the best in a year. Jobless claims  remained steady, suggesting the  labour market is still resilient , with continuing claims dropping to a one-month low. Still,  economic forecasts for 2025 remain cautious , with concerns growing over...

Norway's central bank  kept interest rates steady at a 17-year high of 4.5% , postponing a long-expected rate cut as  inflation rose faster than anticipated . Key Points: Norges Bank had earlier hinted  at a 0.25% rate cut in March, but reversed course due to inflation risks. Core inflation in February jumped to 3.4%  from 2.8% in January — far above the 2% target. Governor Ida Wolden Bache warned that  cutting rates too soon may fuel further price rises . The policy rate is now projected to fall to  4.0% by year-end , higher than the previous forecast of 3.75%. Longer-term, Norges Bank sees a  gradual rate decline  in the coming years. The  Norwegian crown strengthened  slightly following the decision, trading at 11.34 against the euro. Economic Outlook: Norges Bank raised its  core inflation forecast for 2025 to 3.4% , up from 2.7%, and 2.9% for 2026. Despite global uncertainty,  Norwegian businesses expect stable growth , wi...

  Key Takeaways: Trump's New Economic Weapon:  President Donald Trump has introduced a new concept in economic warfare — "secondary tariffs." This threat aims to impose a 25% tariff on countries that purchase oil and gas from Venezuela, which is already under heavy U.S. sanctions. Targeting Venezuela's Oil Trade:  The move seeks to disrupt Venezuela’s oil trade, especially targeting countries like China, which plays a key role in the black market for Venezuelan oil. Countries that continue importing Venezuelan oil could face these new tariffs starting April 2. Secondary Sanctions Evolution:  This policy combines traditional tariffs with secondary sanctions, a form of financial punishment that can be imposed on countries doing business with sanctioned entities. While the order doesn’t directly name targets, it highlights China, including its territories, as a potential primary focus. A Tool for Economic Pressure:  Trump's preference for tariffs over financial san...

President Donald Trump  caused a stir on Tuesday when he threatened to  double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum  after Ontario retaliated with higher tariffs on electricity exports to the U.S. However, by the end of the day, both sides agreed to  suspend  these measures. Key Points: Tariff Threat and Retaliation : The tension began on Monday when Ontario announced it would impose a  25% surcharge  on electricity sent to U.S. states like  Michigan ,  Minnesota , and  New York . Trump responded by threatening to raise tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum from  25% to 50% , starting the next morning. Negotiations and Suspension : Late Tuesday, after talks between Ontario Premier  Doug Ford  and  U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick , Ontario agreed to  suspend  the electricity surcharge, which led to a de-escalation of the tariff threats. Ongoing Steel and Aluminum Tariffs : Despite the suspension of ...

Key Developments: Trump’s tariffs take effect:  25% duties on imports from  Mexico and Canada , while  China faces a 20% tariff increase  on top of existing levies. China retaliates  with  10%-15% tariffs  on US goods and  export restrictions  on 25 US firms. Canada and Mexico vow countermeasures , with  C$30 billion in immediate retaliatory tariffs  from Ottawa. Market turmoil ensues , as global stocks slide and investors flee to safe-haven assets. US recession fears rise , with businesses warning of  supply chain disruptions  and  higher consumer prices . North America: Trade Friction with Allies Canada’s Swift Response Prime Minister Justin Trudeau  condemned the tariffs, calling them a  violation of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) . Canada retaliates with  25% tariffs on C$30 billion (US$20.7 billion) in US goods , targeting: Beer, wine, and bourbon Home appliances Florida orange juice Ontari...

Malaysia’s economy expanded by 5% in Q4 2024 , surpassing the  4.8% forecast  and driven by a  strong services sector, resilient household spending, and investment growth . 📊 Key Economic Highlights 🔹  Q4 2024 GDP Growth:   5% y-o-y  (above the 4.8% estimate). 🔹  Full-year 2024 GDP Growth:   5.1% , up from  3.6% in 2023  but slightly below the  5.4% growth in Q3 2024 . 💬  BNM Governor Abdul Rasheed Ghaffour:   "Malaysia’s growth will continue to be supported by robust investments, resilient household spending, and export growth despite global challenges." 📈 Sector Performance in Q4 2024 Services:  Grew  5.5% y-o-y , leading the economy. Manufacturing:  Increased  4.4% y-o-y . Construction:  Surged  20.7% y-o-y , reflecting strong infrastructure activity. Mining:  Declined  0.9% y-o-y . Agriculture:  Contracted  0.5% y-o-y . 💰 Current Account & Trade 🔹  Curre...

Three US Federal Reserve officials indicated on Monday that they expect interest rates to continue declining over the next year, but stopped short of committing to a rate cut at their upcoming meeting on Dec. 17-18 . Key Remarks from Fed Officials Christopher Waller (Fed Governor) Leaning Towards a Cut : Inclined to support a rate cut in December but emphasized that his decision will depend on upcoming data, particularly on inflation and economic activity. “Policy remains significantly restrictive, and cutting again will mean pressing the brake pedal less hard,” Waller said. Inflation Concerns : Highlighted the risk of inflation stalling above the 2% target , though he sees no evidence of persistent price increases in key service categories. John Williams (New York Fed President) Cautious Approach : Stressed that the path for policy depends on data , emphasizing the uncertainty of the economic outlook . Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed President) Keeping Options Open : Said he would wait...

Singapore's central bank , the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) , kept its monetary settings unchanged , resisting the global trend of policy easing amid strong economic growth in the third quarter. The MAS maintained the slope, width, and center of its currency band , which will keep the Singapore dollar on an appreciating path, helping to mitigate imported inflation. The decision reflects the central bank's view that the current monetary policy settings remain consistent with medium-term price stability . While inflation risks are more balanced than in recent months, the MAS is still concerned about unit labor cost growth and its potential impact on services inflation . Core inflation is expected to remain contained, and the MAS projects it to end the year around 2% . Singapore's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2.1% in the third quarter, surpassing economists' expectations, and 4.1% year-on-year, driven by the manufacturing and construction sectors. The...

  The rally in Malaysia’s ringgit , which reached a three-year high this week, is expected to persist due to the nation’s favorable economic conditions and ongoing reforms, according to Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) . “ Malaysia’s positive economic prospects and structural reforms , supported by initiatives to encourage capital flows, will continue to provide enduring support for the ringgit,” BNM said in an emailed response to Bloomberg News on Wednesday. Despite the 14% surge in the ringgit this quarter, making it the top performer among emerging markets, BNM officials are not overly concerned. The currency's strength has been buoyed by a rebound in exports and foreign inflows of about US$3.6 billion into Malaysian bonds and equities this quarter. The ringgit slipped slightly by 0.3% to 4.1427 per dollar on Thursday, after reaching a high of 4.1080 per dollar earlier in the week, its strongest level since June 2021 . Potential for a Pause in Gains Following the ringgit’s ...

The Philippines saw a faster-than-expected increase in annual inflation in July, driven by elevated food and utility costs. However, the central bank is still considering an interest rate cut, anticipating a slowdown in inflation in the coming months. Inflation Data Consumer Price Index (CPI): July Increase: The CPI rose 4.4% in July, surpassing the 4.1% forecast from a Reuters poll and up from 3.7% in June. Year-to-Date Average: The inflation rate now stands at 3.7% for the year, approaching the upper limit of the central bank’s 2.0% to 4.0% target range. Core Inflation: Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and oil prices, eased to 2.9% in July, down from 3.1% in June. Central Bank Outlook Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP): The BSP has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 6.5% for the past six meetings. However, Governor Eli Remolona indicated that a rate cut might occur as soon as the August 15 meeting. This potential rate cut would be the first since November...

  Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Malaysia is expected to reach the upper end of Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) 4% to 5% target for 2024, according to CIMB Treasury and Markets Research. Key Takeaways: GDP Growth Projection: CIMB anticipates GDP growth to hit the upper range of BNM’s forecast, following a robust 5.8% year-on-year increase in the advance GDP estimate for the second quarter of 2024 (2Q2024). Contributing Factors: Resilient Labour Market Robust Household Spending Ongoing Multi-Year Investments Increased Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Realisation Trade Recovery Improving Tourism Ringgit Performance: The ringgit has outperformed its peers, supported by coordinated actions moderating pressure from rate differentials, global developments, and geopolitical risks. Foreign Exchange Flows: BNM has observed healthier two-way forex flows, driven by investment income, export conversions, and fast-track flexibility for corporates to invest abroad. Market-driven intervent...