U.S. Government Funding Standoff
Asian equities mostly gained on Monday while the U.S. dollar eased, as investors weighed the risk of a U.S. government shutdown. President Donald Trump is set to meet Congressional leaders later in the day in a last-minute bid to extend government funding. Without an agreement, a shutdown would begin Wednesday — coinciding with the start of new tariffs on heavy trucks, patented drugs, and other goods.
A prolonged closure could complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions, as official economic data releases such as payrolls would be delayed.
“If the shutdown lasts beyond the Fed meeting, the Fed will rely on private data,” Bank of America wrote, adding this could slightly reduce the chances of an October rate cut.
Fed Outlook and Economic Impact
Markets currently price a 90% chance of a Fed cut in October, and a 65% probability of another in December. Analysts estimate that each week of shutdown could shave just 0.1 percentage point from U.S. economic growth, though permanent government layoffs could have a greater impact on jobs and consumer confidence.
Separately, investors are watching a high-level military meeting in Virginia this week, attended by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Trump, which has added another layer of uncertainty.
Regional Market Performance
Japan’s Nikkei: -0.8% but still up 5% in September. Political focus is on the Liberal Democratic Party leadership vote this weekend.
South Korea: +1.5%, bringing monthly gains to 7.8%.
China blue chips: +0.7%, ahead of Golden Week holidays.
MSCI Asia ex-Japan: +0.4%, up nearly 4% in September.
Futures: S&P 500 +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.4%, EuroStoxx 50 +0.4%, FTSE and DAX also firmer.
Currency and Bonds
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.16% after recent strong economic data.
Dollar index: -0.2% to 97.95.
Euro: +0.2% to $1.1726.
Yen: dollar fell 0.4% to ¥148.89 after last week’s rally.
Central banks remain in focus, with at least five Fed and ECB officials speaking Monday. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets Tuesday, with rates expected to stay at 3.65% following three cuts earlier this year.
Commodities
Gold: climbed to a fresh record of $3,808/oz as safe-haven demand rose.
Oil: Brent -0.4% to $69.84, WTI -0.5% to $65.37, pressured by resumed Kurdish pipeline flows and expectations that OPEC+ will approve another output hike of at least 137,000 bpd next week.
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