MONEY MASTER

 Market Overview Singapore:  Straits Times Index (STI) opened higher at  4,263.99 (+0.26%) , with  152 advancers vs. 20 decliners . U.S.:  Stocks surged Friday after Powell signaled a dovish pivot at Jackson Hole. Global:  Canada eases U.S. trade tensions by dropping certain USMCA-compliant tariffs. U.S. Markets – Fed Pivot Lifts Wall Street Powell’s Remarks:  Suggested a possible  rate cut in September , citing inflation risks and a weakening labor market. Jobs Data:  July added  73K jobs , well below expectations, with sharp downward revisions for prior months. Market Reaction: Dow Jones:  +1.9% to 45,631.74 (over +800 points) S&P 500:  +1.5% to 6,466.91 Nasdaq:  +1.9% to 21,496.53 Sectors:  Consumer discretionary, energy, and communication services led; consumer staples lagged. Rate Cut Odds:  FedWatch tool shows  85% probability of 25bps cut in September , up from 75% a day earlier. Investor Takeaway...

 A Careful Approach at Jackson Hole At the Jackson Hole symposium, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a likely interest-rate cut in September. But unlike the aggressive easing cycle of 2023, Powell stressed a measured approach, making it clear that investors shouldn’t expect rapid or repeated cuts unless economic conditions worsen. Why the Fed Is Hesitant Labor Market Softness:  Powell noted “curious” signs of weakness despite low unemployment. Both labor supply and demand are slipping, raising concerns of a sudden deterioration. Inflation Risks:  With inflation running close to 3% (above the Fed’s 2% target), several officials remain wary of cutting too soon. Tariff-driven price pressures could persist if businesses continue testing consumer tolerance for higher prices. Split Among Fed Officials:  Some policymakers favor more aggressive easing, while others argue rate cuts are premature given sticky inflation. Powell’s Strategy Powell echoed Fed governor ...

Bank Negara Malaysia’s  surprise OPR cut by 25bps  is seen as a  protective move  to support growth amid global uncertainty, especially trade tensions. 🔍  Key Takeaways: ✅ Domestic activity still looks healthy – unemployment at 3%, retail trade up 4.1% ✅ Growth slowdown expected in 2H25, especially after the new  25% US tariff hits  in Q3 ✅ RAM Ratings  expects  2025 GDP growth  trimmed by 0.6 points due to tariff drag ✅ Banks may feel  minimal impact  on margins (2–3bps), with  asset quality still sound ✅ Loan growth moderating, but  no financial stress expected ✅ No further rate cuts anticipated —  unless things get much worse The cut should  ease borrowing costs  for households and businesses — and act as a safety net for potential shocks ahead.

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) delivered a  25bps OPR cut to 2.75% , aligning with consensus and  OCBC’s forecast . The move signals a  dovish pivot , with the central bank emphasizing  downside risks  to growth and  benign inflation , setting the stage for  further monetary easing  in 2025. Rate Cuts Not Over — OCBC Projects Another 25bps Reduction Next cut likely  at either the  Sept 4 or Nov 6 MPC meeting Target OPR:  2.50% by end-2025 Motivation: Shield economy from external headwinds (tariffs, geopolitics), support domestic demand Growth Outlook: Slowing Momentum 2025 GDP forecast:  3.9% YoY 1H25 : Growth expected to ease to  3.6% YoY  (vs. 4.3% in 1H24) Driven by: Tariff shocks  (25% on key exports by Aug 1) Softening external trade Domestic demand holding for now, but vulnerable Inflation: Contained Despite Subsidy Reform 2025 inflation tracking at 1.5% , even with RON95 rationalisation in Oct (+20–25% price h...

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), the Philippine central bank, has cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 6% , marking the second rate reduction this year. This decision follows the slowdown in inflation, giving the central bank room for further easing. The move aligns with expectations, as 25 out of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg had anticipated the rate cut. The central bank initiated its easing cycle in August, with BSP Governor Eli Remolona expressing a preference for gradual quarter-point cuts rather than larger reductions unless the country's economic growth significantly weakens. In September , Philippine inflation slowed to a four-year low of 1.9% , bringing the nine-month average to 3.4% , which falls within the BSP’s target range. The economy grew by 6.3% from April to June, positioning the Philippines as one of the fastest-growing economies in Asia. This rate cut aims to support sustained economic growth while maintaining stable inflation lev...

Chinese banks are expected to trim rates on 300 trillion yuan ($42.3 trillion) worth of deposits as early as this week, according to insiders, following recent stimulus measures that have further squeezed their already thin margins. Major banks, including Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and China Construction Bank Corp. , are preparing to lower rates under guidance from the People's Bank of China’s (PBOC) interest rate self-disciplinary mechanism. The potential cuts, which have not yet been finalized, may include a 20-basis point reduction on one-year time deposits and a 25-basis point reduction on longer-term deposits . This would mark the second reduction this year, following a previous round in July. The move comes after China rolled out its most significant stimulus package yet to bolster its struggling economy, which included slashing policy rates and reducing borrowing costs on $5.3 trillion of mortgages . The PBOC has already made a historic cut to its...

The European Central Bank (ECB) is poised to cut interest rates again on Thursday, despite inflation risks persisting amid a faltering eurozone economy. Investors will be closely scrutinizing the ECB's statements for any signs of further easing. The ECB lowered its deposit rate to 3.75% in June , and several policymakers have already signaled support for another cut. The debate is expected to center on how swiftly borrowing costs should be reduced in future meetings. ECB President Christine Lagarde is likely to maintain the bank's recent stance that decisions are made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, driven by incoming data. However, she may also indicate that all meetings remain “live,” leaving the door open for a potential cut in October, while some conservative policymakers, or "hawks," argue for a slower pace of easing due to inflation across the 20-country eurozone remaining above the ECB's 2% target. "All eyes will be on any messages regarding the futur...