MONEY MASTER

Quick Summary Investors are heading into this week’s Federal Reserve meeting  largely unfazed by the lack of an interest-rate cut . Instead, markets are signaling that what really matters now is  earnings quality, economic stability, and a broadening rally beyond Big Tech . With the US economy holding up and profits expanding across more sectors, stocks appear able to grind higher even without immediate monetary easing. What’s Driving the Market Right Now Despite political pressure from  Donald Trump  for lower rates, markets are pricing a  near-certain rate hold  by the  Federal Reserve  this week — and investors seem comfortable with that outcome. The key shift: The market narrative is moving  away from “rate-cut dependency” toward fundamentals . Key Investor Takeaways 1. The market doesn’t need a rate cut to move higher Strategists note that equities can perform well as long as growth and earnings remain intact. Rate cuts are a tailwind —...

The S&P 500 struggled for direction on Thursday, holding just shy of its all-time high as traders weighed next week’s Federal Reserve decision, uneven economic data, and renewed volatility in crypto and bonds. Bitcoin halted its rebound, Treasury yields climbed, and equities lacked clear momentum. The index closed near  6,860 , barely moving on the day. Despite a drop in jobless claims — distorted by Thanksgiving timing — expectations for a Fed rate cut next week remained firm. Small caps outperformed, with the  Russell 2000 adding  0.8% . Meta rose after reports it may cut spending in its metaverse division, while Hewlett Packard Enterprise fell in late trading after a disappointing sales outlook. Recent jitters around elevated artificial-intelligence valuations briefly pressured markets, but optimism around the sector’s earnings potential and anticipated policy easing continue to support the broader rally. Rate Cut Hopes Keep Seasonal Rally in Play “The key question...

U.S. stocks have climbed back toward record levels after a volatile month, but investors remain uneasy as persistent inflation and weakening labor data cloud the outlook. That’s why Friday’s release of the  September personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index  — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge — is being viewed as a major test of the market’s renewed optimism. Despite rising equity prices, recession warnings from soft data such as consumer sentiment surveys and private payroll reports have kept sentiment mixed. Investors are hoping Friday’s delayed PCE report will provide the  “hard data” clarity  that has been missing. Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide, said investors are watching the PCE report more closely because many forward-looking indicators have been unreliable. “There’s this confusion that the data we’re getting is lagged or incomplete,” Hackett said. “The PCE fills in the blanks because soft data measures have been probl...

Asian equities steadied on Wednesday, tracking an overnight recovery on Wall Street as a sharp selloff in global bonds and cryptocurrencies took a breather. The calmer tone helped lift risk appetite across the region. Bitcoin reclaimed the  US$90,000  level, while futures for both the  Nasdaq  and  S&P 500  edged up  0.1% . MSCI’s broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan rose  0.3% , and Japan’s  Nikkei  advanced  0.8% . Global Market Turbulence Eases Markets bounced back after a rocky start to the week triggered by renewed expectations of a  Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike , which sent global bonds tumbling and deepened the slide in digital assets. “The moves in spreads and the yen likely reignited fears around carry trades and forced unwinding of leveraged positions,” said Kerry Craig, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. He added that while crypto prices have often been used as a proxy for risk sentiment...

 US equities climbed for a third straight session on Tuesday as traders increased their conviction that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December. Alphabet’s gains also sharpened attention on the shifting competitive landscape within the artificial intelligence sector, adding pressure on Nvidia. The S&P 500 rose 0.9%, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.6%, recovering from an intraday drop of as much as 1.3%. Market volatility remained contained, with the VIX hovering near 19. Breadth improved across the board. The equal-weighted S&P 500 advanced 1.5%, reflecting broad-based buying, while the small-cap Russell 2000 outperformed with a 2.1% jump. Weaker US Data Fuels Policy Bets After a delay caused by the federal government shutdown, September economic data finally began to roll out. Retail sales posted only modest growth, hinting that consumers are pulling back after months of strong spending. Wholesale inflation picked up on higher energy and food prices, while co...

Asian equities advanced for a third straight session on Wednesday, mirroring gains on Wall Street as deteriorating U.S. consumer data strengthened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month. Benchmarks in Japan, South Korea and Australia all opened higher after the S&P 500 climbed 0.9% and the Nasdaq 100 added 0.6%. Chinese equities will be closely watched after Alibaba Group’s U.S.-listed shares declined following its earnings release. Treasuries eased after sharp gains in the prior session, which were driven by reports placing White House National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett as the leading candidate to become the next Fed chair. The dollar slipped to a one-week low, according to a Bloomberg measure. Cooling U.S. Data Reinforces Rate-Cut Narrative Equities regained momentum as U.S. consumer confidence posted its sharpest drop since April, while September retail sales picked up only modestly. The delayed batch of economic data, caused by a government shutdow...

Gold rose on Monday as traders grew increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve will deliver another interest-rate cut in December, even as policymakers remain split and economic data remains distorted by the prolonged US government shutdown. Fed governor Christopher Waller bolstered expectations after signalling support for a reduction next month, echoing comments from New York Fed president John Williams that a near-term cut remains on the table. With official labour-market data still missing, investors have turned to second-tier indicators to gauge the health of the economy. Swap markets now imply nearly an 80% probability of a cut at the Fed’s December 9–10 meeting — building on earlier moves in September and October. Lower interest rates generally boost the appeal of gold, which offers no yield and tends to outperform during periods of monetary easing. Investors this week will parse a backlog of delayed economic data, including September retail sales and producer-price figures...

Asian equities advanced for a second straight session on Tuesday, mirroring Wall Street’s tech-led rebound as expectations mounted for a US Federal Reserve rate cut next month. MSCI’s Asia Pacific equity benchmark rose as much as 0.8%, with gains across Hong Kong, China and Japan following the first Trump–Xi talks since last month’s tariff truce. The regional move echoed a strong recovery in US tech shares on Monday, which helped lift broader sentiment after a volatile few weeks. Alphabet climbed in late trading while Nvidia dipped after reports that Meta Platforms is in talks to spend billions on Google’s AI-focused processors. The rally gained further support after Fed governor Christopher Waller signalled openness to a December rate cut, reinforcing similar comments from San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly and New York’s John Williams. Money markets now assign roughly a 90% probability to a December reduction. Treasuries held Monday’s gains, with the 10-year yield hovering near 4....

Shutdown Deadline Approaches Asian shares opened cautiously on Monday as investors weighed the risk of a potential  U.S. government shutdown . Without a funding deal, the shutdown could begin  Wednesday , coinciding with the rollout of new U.S. tariffs on  heavy trucks, pharmaceuticals, and other products . President Donald Trump is set to meet congressional leaders later Monday in an effort to secure an extension. Analysts warn that a prolonged closure would delay critical economic data releases — including the September  payrolls report  — leaving the  Federal Reserve (Fed)  with less visibility ahead of its  Oct 29 meeting . Fed Implications Bank of America (BofA)  analysts noted that if the shutdown extends beyond October, the Fed would have to rely more on private-sector data. Markets currently price in a  90% chance of a Fed rate cut in October  and a  65% probability of another in December . Economic growth impact is est...

Global Markets US equities extended their losing streak on Thursday, with the  Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.38%, S&P 500 down 0.50%, and Nasdaq off 0.50% . Stronger economic data, including resilient jobless claims and firm Q2 GDP, dampened expectations for deeper Federal Reserve rate cuts. Treasury yields climbed, with the 10-year note rising to  4.17% , as investors looked to Friday’s PCE inflation data for further policy signals. Market sentiment was also clouded by the looming risk of a government shutdown, as federal agencies were directed to prepare contingency plans. Political gridlock in Washington added to volatility, reinforcing caution in risk assets. On the corporate front,  Intel shares jumped 9%  after CEO Lip-Bu Tan pushed ahead with efforts to secure fresh funding and partnerships. The company is in talks with Apple and TSMC, while also receiving backing from SoftBank and Nvidia to strengthen its turnaround strategy. Malaysia Markets The...

Trump Unveils Fresh Tariffs Ahead of Oct 1 Deadline Asian shares retreated on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a new round of tariffs set to take effect on  Oct 1 . The measures include: 100% duties  on imported branded drugs 25% tariffs  on heavy-duty trucks 50% tariffs  on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities 30% tariffs  on upholstered furniture The sweeping levies rattled regional markets, with Japan’s  Topix pharmaceutical index  sliding 1.4% and Australian biotech giant  CSL  tumbling more than 3%. Regional Market Reaction Nikkei 225  fell 0.5% MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan  index dropped 0.45% Nasdaq futures  eased 0.08% S&P 500 futures  slipped 0.02% Meanwhile, European markets bucked the trend, with  EUROSTOXX 50 futures  up 0.37% and  FTSE futures gaining 0.25%. “Right now, it adds to a shaky backdrop for risk assets,” said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG. Fed Cut Bets Dial...

Key Takeaway:  Cryptocurrencies advanced alongside equities Monday, with  Bitcoin (BTC)  testing the  US$112,000 level and  Dogecoin (DOGE)  jumping nearly  5% , while analysts predict  Ethereum (ETH)  may correct before staging a parabolic rally in Q4. Market Snapshot (as of 9:15 p.m. ET) Bitcoin (BTC):  +0.57% at  US$111,500.30  (intraday high: US$112,869.24) Ethereum (ETH):  –0.08% at  US$4,288.94 XRP (XRP):  +2.82% at  US$2.95 Solana (SOL):  +3.55% at  US$213.45 Dogecoin (DOGE):  +4.68% at  US$0.2381 The global cryptocurrency market cap stood at  US$3.87 trillion , up  1.09%  in 24 hours. Bitcoin Trends Volume:  Trading volume surged  58% to US$40 billion  over 24 hours. Open Interest:  Rose  2.48% , reflecting stronger long positioning. Dominance:  BTC’s market share narrowed to  57.5% , with ETH steady above  13% . Liquidations:...

U.S. equities eased on Monday as the momentum from Friday’s Jackson Hole rally lost steam, with investors cautious ahead of this week’s key inflation reading and Nvidia’s much-anticipated results. Sector performance was mixed, with outsized moves across semiconductors, retail, crypto, and M&A-driven names. Investor Takeaway : Rotation trade in play : domestic manufacturers (ETD, LZB) benefit from tariff threats, while import-reliant retailers (W, RH, WSM) face downside risk. Strategic shifts : Intel’s U.S. government stake signals deepening state-industry integration in semis, while KDP’s JDE Peet’s deal highlights consumer brand consolidation. Key watchpoint : Nvidia earnings this week may set the tone not only for AI sentiment but also for broader market direction into September. Semiconductors & Technology Nvidia (NVDA US)  rose  +1.9%  ahead of its Q2 earnings due Wednesday. Despite a two-week losing streak, shares are still  +35% YTD , underscoring its c...

 Fed’s Policy Pivot Lifts Sentiment Asian equities climbed Monday, buoyed by growing conviction that the  U.S. Federal Reserve will resume rate cuts in September . Futures now price in an  84% probability of a 25bps cut  and as much as  100bps of easing by mid-2026 , bringing the Fed funds rate into the  3.25%–3.50% range . Treasuries & Dollar:  Yields fell sharply on Friday, with the U.S. 10-year note at  4.263% , down 7bps. The dollar weakened, supporting risk assets. Market implication:  Lower borrowing costs improve the earnings outlook, but also signal Fed concern over slowing employment and growth. JPMorgan’s Bruce Kasman warned that while easing is supportive, risks remain skewed toward a  downshift in global growth . Inflation in Focus – Data Could Test Euphoria The rally faces an immediate test from Friday’s release of the  U.S. PCE index , the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Core inflation is expected to rise to ...

 U.S. stocks posted a mixed finish on Thursday despite a  scorching July Producer Price Index (PPI)  reading that initially rattled markets. The  PPI jumped 0.9% month-on-month , the fastest in three years and well above forecasts, sparking a swift sell-off in futures before buyers stepped back in. By the close: S&P 500  eked out a record high. Dow Jones  and  Nasdaq  ended marginally lower. Beneath the surface, small caps and rate-sensitive stocks took heavy hits. Key market dynamics: Rotation stalls  – Earlier in the week, falling bond yields had driven money into small caps and homebuilders. The hot PPI abruptly reversed this trend. Small-cap slump  – Russell 2000 fell  1.2% ; homebuilder ETF  XHB  slid  1.8% . Mega-cap support  – Heavyweights like Amazon and Netflix propped up the indexes, masking broader market weakness. Breadth deterioration  – Decliners outnumbered gainers in the S&P 500 despi...

U.S. stocks extended their gains on Wednesday after an in-line consumer price index (CPI) report reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in September. The S&P 500 marked its fifth consecutive day of gains, while the Nasdaq 100 also edged higher. Key Highlights: CPI Report: The CPI report showed that inflation is continuing its downward trend, aligning with market expectations and providing some relief after recent market volatility. The data, combined with a softening labor market, strengthens the likelihood of a Fed rate cut next month, though the extent of the cut remains a topic of speculation. Market Reaction: The S&P 500 hovered near 5,455, with financial, energy, and tech shares leading the way. Cisco Systems Inc saw a late trading boost following a positive revenue forecast. Meanwhile, Wall Street's "fear gauge," the VIX, continued to decline, signaling reduced market anxiety. Fed Outlook: With the CPI data in l...