MONEY MASTER

U.S. equities stalled Monday, with Treasury yields climbing as investors reassessed the Federal Reserve’s dovish tilt against still-stubborn inflation. The pullback comes just days before the release of  July PCE data , which could prove pivotal in shaping the September policy decision. Fed Policy Debate Intensifies Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks  reinforced expectations for a September rate cut, but officials remain divided on the pace of easing. Markets are bracing for  PCE core inflation at 2.9% YoY  — the fastest in five months. That complicates the Fed’s balancing act between a weakening labor market and inflation above its 2% target. Money markets : ~80% odds of a September cut, with two cuts priced in by year-end. “While a September cut looks likely, the real debate is whether it’s a dovish or hawkish cut,” said Andrew Brenner, NatAlliance Securities. Market Moves S&P 500 : −0.4%, with 400 stocks in the red. Nvidia (NVDA.US)  gained ahead of earnings, ...

The SGD is under pressure — and August could bring more headwinds. As the US ramps up  tariff threats  on  pharma and semiconductors  — two of Singapore’s top exports — and with speculation mounting that the  Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS)  could  ease its currency policy  this month, the SGD may face further downside. Key Takeaways: S GD may slide to S$1.30  vs. USD in the near term Trump’s new tariffs (possibly by  Aug 1 ) could weigh heavily on SG exports June  core inflation data  (out July 23) expected at  only +0.7% , reinforcing easing case MAS may  flatten the S$NEER slope  by 50bps to 0%, capping SGD strength With  S$NEER near the top of the band , flattening = weaker SGD vs trading partners Experts Say: “The tariff uncertainty could add to growth headwinds for Singapore in H2.” —  Moh Siong Sim, Bank of Singapore “We expect MAS to ease policy this month... the bias is for further SGD we...

Stock futures fell  in early Friday trading as investors awaited the release of the  Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge , the  Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index . Markets remain cautious following the Fed's  hawkish tone  earlier this week, signaling fewer-than-anticipated interest rate cuts in 2025. Key Market Moves S&P 500 Futures:  Down 0.3% Dow Jones Futures:  Off by 0.4% Nasdaq Futures:  Lower by 0.5% The declines follow a turbulent week marked by the Fed’s unexpected pivot toward  slower easing  of monetary policy next year, raising concerns about growth prospects. What’s Driving the Market? PCE Inflation Report: The  core PCE index , a measure closely watched by the Fed, will provide insights into the trajectory of inflation. Economists forecast a  0.2% monthly rise , which could influence the timing of future rate cuts. Rate Hikes vs. Growth Concerns: Investors are weighing the Fed’s cauti...

Global markets slid on Friday  as concerns over a potential  US government shutdown  mounted and  Donald Trump’s trade threats  against Europe heightened tensions. Investors also focused on upcoming  US inflation data  that could influence Federal Reserve policy for 2025. Key Market Highlights 1. US Government Shutdown Risks A  spending bill  failed in the House of Representatives on Thursday, highlighting political volatility under  President-elect Donald Trump . Trump’s proposed tariffs and spending policies have increased uncertainty, with  credit default swaps (CDS)  on six-month US bills rising to a four-week high of  11 basis points . 2. Trump’s Trade Threats Trump warned the  European Union  to increase purchases of  US oil and gas  or face tariffs: “Otherwise, it is TARIFFS all the way!!!”  he stated on Truth Social. European stocks  fell 1%, marking a  3% weekly drop , as  U...

Key Takeaway: Wall Street's major indexes rose modestly after consumer price data met expectations, keeping hopes alive for a Fed rate cut in December. US stocks edged higher on Wednesday, driven by in-line consumer price index (CPI) data , which showed a 0.2% rise in October and a 2.6% year-over-year increase. This result reassured investors, as expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut in December surged to 82% following the report, up from 58%. The Dow Jones rose 0.22% to 44,009.23 , the S&P 500 gained 0.14% to 5,992.32 , and the Nasdaq climbed 0.09% to 19,298.74 . The Russell 2000 index of rate-sensitive small-cap companies jumped 0.9% , while the real estate sector rose by 1.3%. Tesla shares saw a 4% boost after Elon Musk was named as a co-leader of the new Department of Government Efficiency. Highlights: Inflation Relief: Investors welcomed the stable CPI data, allowing markets to “breathe” amid inflation concerns for 2025. Fed’s Confidence: Minneapolis Fed Presiden...