MONEY MASTER

The White House said Wednesday that the October US jobs report and consumer price index are unlikely to be released, marking an unprecedented disruption to America’s economic data system as the government shutdown continues. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed that key statistical agencies — including the Bureau of Labor Statistics — halted data collection and publication when the shutdown began, leaving policymakers without crucial indicators needed to assess the economy’s momentum. While some datasets could be reconstructed retroactively, economists have cautioned that the CPI and unemployment rate are among the releases most at risk of being skipped entirely. The BLS has not issued an updated calendar or indicated whether missing releases might be combined into future reports. In previous shutdowns, the agency has restored operations quickly, but officials now face the challenge of incomplete surveys that cannot be reproduced after the fact. Leavitt said Democrats “may have p...

  Key Takeaways: BLS revision:  US employment from April 2024–March 2025 was revised down by  911,000 jobs , highlighting weaker labor momentum than initially reported. Broader context:  The downgrade follows sharp downward revisions in May and June, when job losses totaled 258,000. Policy implications:  Economists see limited impact on near-term Fed policy, with markets still expecting a  rate cut next week . Political backdrop:  Tensions rise as President Trump dismissed the BLS commissioner, raising concerns over the independence of US economic data. Major Payroll Revision Underscores Slowdown The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Tuesday that US payrolls expanded by  911,000 fewer jobs  in the year through March than previously estimated. This adjustment, based on more comprehensive unemployment insurance tax records (QCEW), points to a labor market that was already stalling before the latest tariff-related disruptions. The previo...

Weak Payroll Data Spurs Fears of Slowing US Economy Asian equity markets opened the week under pressure after  US July payroll revisions cut 290,000 jobs off prior estimates , while the three-month average slowed sharply to just 35,000. The data reinforced fears that the US economy is cooling faster than expected and pushed traders to price in a  90% probability of a September Fed rate cut , up from 40% before the report. Fed Independence Questioned Amid Political Noise Concerns intensified after President Trump fired the head of Labor Statistics and prepared to appoint a new Federal Reserve governor, raising fears over the politicisation of monetary policy. Analysts noted the move “puts Fed credibility and economic data under the spotlight,” with futures now implying  65bps of easing by year-end  versus 33bps pre-data. Regional Market Reaction Nikkei 225:  -2.1% Kospi:  -0.2% MSCI Asia ex-Japan:  +0.3% (helped by selective buying) S&P 500 futures:...

Asian stocks inched higher on Thursday, cautiously tracking Wall Street’s overnight gains — but markets remain on edge ahead of two critical catalysts: the US  June payrolls report  and the possible final  passage of Trump’s $3.3 trillion tax and spending bill . What Moved the Market? Wall Street Rally : S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs after Trump announced a new  trade deal with Vietnam , boosting hopes for deals with India and others. Asia Mixed : MSCI Asia ex-Japan:  +0.2% , just below a 4-year high China blue chips:  +0.2% Nikkei: flat Hang Seng:  -0.6%  after weak China services PMI Dollar Still Weak : Fed credibility concerns and rate-cut pressure from Trump kept the dollar near  3.5-year lows . MoneyMaster Take: Markets are walking a tightrope —  Trump’s policy blitz is bullish short-term , but it’s raising  big fiscal and inflation questions . Meanwhile, investors are holding their breath for US payrolls data t...

  Key Highlights: Decline in Degree Requirements: Only  17.6%  of job postings required at least a  bachelor’s degree  in October, down from  20% in 2019 , according to  Indeed Hiring Lab . The shift reflects a post-pandemic strategy to attract a  broader pool of skilled workers , even without formal degrees. Impact of Pandemic Recovery: During acute  labor shortages , employers, including major corporations like  IBM Corp , dropped degree requirements to fill positions quickly. This move opened opportunities for the  60% of Americans  without college degrees. Stabilization Below Pre-Pandemic Levels: While the  job market moderated  in 2024, the share of postings requiring degrees has  stabilized  but remains lower than pre-pandemic levels. Challenges for College Graduates: A  Federal Reserve Bank of New York  analysis shows over  40% of recent college grads  are underemployed, working in...

Wall Street’s major indexes gained on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting intraday record highs. The boost came as traders increased bets on a December Federal Reserve rate cut, fueled by stronger-than-expected November jobs data. Jobs Data Sparks Optimism U.S. job growth surged in November, rebounding from hurricane and strike disruptions. While the labor market showed resilience, analysts said the report suggests a steady easing in conditions, paving the way for the Fed to lower interest rates. “This jobs report hits the Goldilocks zone — not too hot to derail rate cuts, but not too cold to spark economic fears,” said Josh Jamner, investment strategy analyst at ClearBridge Investments. Traders now see a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s Dec. 17-18 meeting, up from 67% before the jobs report. Market Highlights Indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.11% to 44,815.17. S&P 500 gained 0.36% to 6,097.33. Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.72% to 19,84...

The US labour market showed signs of a steady slowdown in October, with job openings increasing moderately and layoffs declining, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday. Job openings, a key indicator of labour demand, rose by 372,000 to 7.744 million at the end of October. However, the September figures were revised downward to 7.372 million from the initially reported 7.443 million. Economists polled by Reuters had anticipated 7.475 million vacancies. Labour Market Dynamics While job openings increased, hires dropped by 269,000 to 5.313 million, and layoffs fell by 169,000 to 1.633 million. These figures suggest a gradual cooling of the labour market rather than a sharp contraction. Hurricanes and strikes also impacted October’s labour market data. Rebuilding efforts in storm-affected regions and the resolution of strikes at Boeing and another aerospace company are expected to contribute to a ...

Oil prices closed slightly higher on Friday, supported by reports that Iran may be preparing a retaliatory strike on Israel from Iraq , yet record-high U.S. output kept price increases in check. Brent crude futures rose 0.4% to $73.10 a barrel , and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 0.3% to $69.49 . For the week, Brent posted a 4% decline , and WTI dropped around 3% as higher U.S. production offset Middle East tensions. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently reported a record 13.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in production. Key drivers in the oil market this week include: Geopolitical tensions : Israeli intelligence reports indicate possible retaliatory actions by Iran, which could escalate regional instability. OPEC+ considerations : The group may delay its planned December production increase due to weak demand concerns. U.S. production : Major players like ExxonMobil and Chevron reported record output levels, influencing supply. Expectations of a...

 Oil Surges, HSBC Tightens, and Shein Eyes IPO: 5 Key Market Movers to Start Your Day in Asia Rising Tensions : Oil prices surged over 5%, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) settling above $73 per barrel , as markets brace for the possibility that Israel’s retaliation against Iran could target critical oil infrastructure . President Joe Biden confirmed discussions about potential support for strikes on Iranian oil facilities, raising concerns of global energy disruptions . HSBC Cuts Costs : HSBC is canceling events and cutting back on travel expenses as the bank’s new CEO, Georges Elhedery , focuses on reducing costs. The bank recently scrapped a summit in India and introduced restrictions on internal trips, aiming to trim $2 billion in expenses ahead of its first quarterly results under the new leadership. Shein Eyes IPO : Shein , the online fashion giant, is preparing for informal meetings with investors ahead of a potential London IPO , according to sources. The company awa...

In August, US companies announced 75,891 layoffs, nearly three times the number in July and marking the largest month-to-month increase in a year, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. This surge, driven primarily by the technology sector, reflects growing economic uncertainty and rising operational costs. Key Takeaways: Significant Increase in Layoffs : The surge in layoffs to 75,891 in August represents the highest number since March, with technology firms accounting for more than half of the cuts, totaling 39,563 layoffs. This is a substantial jump from around 6,000 in July and marks the most significant reduction since January 2023. The health sector followed with 6,158 layoffs announced. Economic Uncertainty and Market Dynamics : The rise in job cuts is attributed to economic uncertainty and shifting market dynamics. Companies are facing increased pressures from rising operational costs and concerns over a potential economic slowdown, prompting tough dec...

  Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies are expected to closely follow the stock market’s response to a critical US jobs report due later on Friday. A rising correlation between digital assets and equities signals that the crypto market may react similarly to stock movements, particularly in response to the Federal Reserve's potential interest-rate policy changes. Key Takeaways: High Correlation with Equities : A 30-day correlation coefficient between the largest 100 digital assets and MSCI's global stock index is currently near 0.60, one of the highest levels seen in the past two years. This suggests that cryptocurrencies are increasingly moving in tandem with traditional equities, reflecting heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic factors, such as the US employment data. Investor Caution Ahead of Jobs Report : The upcoming US employment report is crucial for gauging the health of the world’s largest economy and determining the pace of potential interest rate cuts by the Fe...

  Asian markets faced uncertainty on Friday, with shares fluctuating and the Japanese yen strengthening as investors awaited key US jobs data. The upcoming non-farm payrolls report is critical, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve's decisions on future rate cuts. The data could set the tone for the US economy, impacting global financial markets. Key Takeaways: Anticipation of US Jobs Data Drives Market Sentiment : Investors are closely watching the US non-farm payrolls report, which will provide insights into the strength of the labor market and may determine the size and speed of upcoming interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Market expectations suggest a moderate rise in job numbers; however, weaker data could prompt a larger rate cut of up to 50 basis points. Yen Gains as Investors Seek Safe Havens : The Japanese yen rose by 0.6% to 142.57 per dollar amid cautious market sentiment, reflecting a preference for safe-haven assets ahead of the jobs report. The yen’s week...